Man Wuhan is scary, even before this latest update. Not counting the 13,000 they just added:

- It took 3 weeks to go from 27 total confirmed cases (all time) to 60 new infected per day /2 new deaths per day

- It took less than 3 more weeks to go from 60 per day/2 deaths per day - to 1,500 new infected per day/ 60 dead per day. This is under total citywide lockdown over those 3 weeks.

- 21 days into total lockdown they still have >1000 new cases per day and 70 deaths per day

Have we ever seen anything like this, ever? If the progression in other places in the world is 1/3 as virulent as this one was, the **** hits the fan for an extended period.

People are insane if they thinks there's a 99% chance of this blowing over.

Apparently, Beijing parachuted in the Deputy Head of China's National Health Commission on 11 February. He immediately took over control of the response to the outbreak, and was quoted as saying:

And what do you know a day or two later and we have an order of magnitude daily increase in confirmed cases.

Which only confirms what we already knew/suspected itt, that cases were wildly unreported.

And meanwhile somebody who traveled to Indonesia but not China has been confirmed, but Indonesia still insists no cases of the virus with like all 50 tests they've administered for a population of 270m people.

I don't want to sound too confident but it's getting hard to see a path where this thing isn't a global pandemic.

Another data point about this thing.....only two laboratories on the continent of Africa are even equipped to test for the thing.

We really just are grasping in the dark on how far this has spread already.

Also Princess Diamond Cruise Ship in Japan....aka The Cruise Ship From Hell: 44 more cases for total of 220.

Hope this post is allowed here.

I was sent this video via WhatsApp and just thinking it is the usual conspiracy nonsense. I am curious though as to the final part. The link the guy has regarding 5g being launched in Wuhan for some reason, is not allowed to be posted on Facebook? You can't post the link when trying to.

Out of pure curiosity, does anyone know why? Can just scroll to 2:11 of the video to save time from the nonsense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtqCIup4alQ

Sick timing.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w

More of this today

Breaking:

- Administration sources say they believe China is under reporting the number of coronavirus cases by at least 100,000
- CDC: 15th Coronavirus Case in Person Who Return From China, Likely to be Additional Cases in Coming Days, Weeks

Market selling off last five minutes on this.

im all for corona narrative, but

market doesnt seem to care, all novel bears seem to keep getting rekt

im starting some NFLX 384 here, gonna add below here and above 386

I have been long since last autumn but in the light of recent news i have reduced my more vulnerable positions.

Nonetheless, too early to sell off or go short imo, I think there will be enough time to flip switches once **** hits the fan, for the moment it is still surprising to me how the market shrugs off any kind of bad news.

Sold a little more at 3778. Still smaller than average position. Want to start backing up the truck, but trying to stay patient until I know for sure we gucci on this short.

markets definitely cared in the overnight when that china case adjustment came out. quickly went down like 8 handles.

i think a better way of phrasing it is markets don't care until the news that is likely to come out comes out. nothing is really being priced in advance.

the options guy known as 50 cent is back in there tho buying vix 24 calls for march expiration.

Went long Netflix at 380. Just looking for a few 3-4$ days in a row.

Short Tesla at 810

Covered the add at 3772.50

P.S. outside days are not bullish for the S&P. Looking to throw it back on tonight if we keep getting bad news.

Not interested in holding this overnight. Out at 803. Might buy a few monthly puts, but probably not

4,823 new cases and 116 new deaths in Hubei province alone today. Hopefully, for the sake of the world, they're still working through an incorrect classification backlog.

8500 serious and 2000 critical.

Whatever happened to Brass?

The new diagnostic criteria sure are confusing the stats. WHO discounted 100% of the ~14k backlogged cases yesterday pending confirmation from China on how it is counting cases/deaths.

The death in Japan was an 80 yr old woman, mother-in-law of taxi driver who was also infected, the driver claims he had not taken any foreign passengers for the two weeks prior to developing symptoms (so... local transmission?).

The UK/Singapore/French cluster...



Apparently markets do not care but this is already crushing businesses imo...

There is literally nothing to worry about, just LOL

I'm still here, chicken little. I figured I'd wait for data to clarify a bit since you're so incredibly biased that you will just see whatever you want in anything other than crystal-clear data. When they updated all those backlogged cases, which didn't actually change the rate of infection or death, which is what matters, I knew you would be crowing since you don't understand how analysis works. It's like gloating that the stock price of a company you shorted went down 50% just because the stock split. One thing I'll admit I got wrong was just how patently cut and dried the data will have to be before you'll submit your apology. And to be honest I haven't checked the S&P in a couple days--is it down 20% yet like you predicted?

How do you calculate rate of infection?

Cases that were suspected based on a CT scan now = confirmed infections.

Why?

How is this like a stock split?

I mean, it's here in black and white, you being dead wrong on the facts, comically wrong on the analysis, and rubbishing claims that were correct. I and others explained patiently to you (someone really bad at rational analysis) why deaths were obviously very underreported. Your response:
What you mocked is exactly what was correct. Someone who doesn't have a 50 year old dad brain and a poor education would do a double take.
And again, got the analysis dead wrong, even when clearly correct evidence and reasoning was presented to you.
And again, wrong and smug. They did indeed run out of test kits such that many of those hospitalized weren't even tested because they were so overwhelmed.

Smarter people than you are discussing things with actual uncertainty, not debating things which are 99% true (such as that deaths were/are obviously extremely unreported). How dumb do you have to be, how terrible at analysis, to be on the wrong side of 99% probabilities?

A few cases from Japan (probably the best medical and diagnostic systems amongst high risk countries)...

A surgeon in Japan tested positive (no travel history or contact with Chinese people). He had continued to work whilst infected and showing symptoms. A patient of the hospital also tested positive - he had not been in contact with the doctor - and was symptomatic prior to going to the hospital. Another doctor at same hospital and two patients have pneumonia, tests pending. This occurred in a small town in Wakayama (population 12,000).

A taxi driver in Okinawa (where the Diamond Princess stopped and passengers disembarked) tested positive.

In Tokyo, 2 confirmed infections and 10 showing symptoms of fever after contact with an infected person. He had been at a boat party attended by 80 people (who will now be tested too).

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2...ed-doctor.html

All the data (copious at this point) points to this being far too contagious to contain. Asymptomatic transmission and 14 day incubation period for some pushes that way over the edge of containable. Wuhan should be zero after 23 days in total lockdown, not adding 1000+ cases a day. Xi Jinping was't far off calling it a "demon virus".

The only question is death rates. It's pretty likely they're above 1%, and we'll get our first (non-biased) data in the next 2-3 weeks as that cruise ship plays out. 4 are already in critical condition. If that numbers goes to 50 or so as the recent infections progress we have our answer. Expected deaths on that ship should be > 30 total imo given they're mostly over 60 and the death rate should be high in over 60s. Should be good for the cruise industry once the deaths start rolling in.

Interesting daily stats from Wuhan:

36,719 currently hospitalized, of which:
- 27,081 (73.8%) in mild condition
- 7,953 (21.7%) serious
- 1,685 (4.6%) critical

I think all the new cases today are actually new, although tomorrow should tell us for sure. China is reporting 4,823 new cases (saying that includes 3,095 clinically diagnosed with viral pneumonia but not tested). Basically, they're at the limits of testing, have been for a while, and hospitalization pneumonia cases now are assumed Covid infections. So there's been massive underreporting for a while it seems as they ran into testing limits, now corrected. We've been exponential at 8-10%/day this whole time; the drop off wasn't real and was an artifact of testing overload.



The continued growth is bizarre given that Hubei has been in total lockdown for 23 days and should have close to zero cases by now. Shows how insanely infectious this virus is and how it can't be stopped once it gets to a small critical mass, even with extreme measures.