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12-04-2023 , 01:46 PM
Something that seems to be lost in this thread regarding the KK hand - Mason said. "It’s an extreme example, but we want to start with it to show how different many of the strategies in this book are and to give you an idea of how different, in some situations, our approach to maximizing your expectation"

I think we can all agree that it is extreme.

Reading this thread gave me the itch to take a road trip and dabble in some low stakes live NLH. Then it happened, limpers ahead of me, and I have KK.

Do I try the Limon strategy of 13x, the Sklansky strategy of calling, or my strategy.... which is... just go all in. My table image for the past hour is that I was willing to mix it up, play a lot of hands, and if you've read my username, I probably played those very hands poorly.

Given my table image, and given my previous comments in this thread. I couldn't do it. Flatting KK is just not in my DNA.

Spoiler 1:
Spoiler:
I just ripped it in for around $140 cold (Started with $200, and I get called by JJ, board runs clean). Opponent says: "I never put you on that."


Spoiler 2:
Spoiler:
I'm still buying the book


Anecdotal. Sure, but I'm not trying to make a living playing this game.
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12-04-2023 , 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by deuceblocker
I don't see the relevance of button open raises to 1/3 or even 2/5 NL. There is no point in stealing the blinds. Even if they don't rake it, it is $4 and you pay $1 tip. The blinds will probably defend wide to a raise to like $10, and rarely 3!. However, it will usually be a multiway pot to you on the button, often with limpers. GTO can be sort of applied to some postflop situations. However, I don't see how it helps us determine how lose to play in 1/3 from the discussion presented here.
In most instances I've seen, people don't put the $1 tip out there if all that happened was they scooped only the $4 blinds in 1/3.
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12-04-2023 , 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by BrickMMA
In most instances I've seen, people don't put the $1 tip out there if all that happened was they scooped only the $4 blinds in 1/3.
I almost always tip there

But most don’t and it’s not expected

I’m mostly stealing not for the money but just to get onto the next hand, instead of having the tenth “we chopping?” convo

I just like getting in some hours for Diamond card
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12-04-2023 , 03:20 PM
I'm guessing one of the reasons someone might think you need to play tighter in a fishy live game is because they also believe you can't bluff fish.
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12-04-2023 , 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by easyfnmoney

Do I try the Limon strategy of 13x, the Sklansky strategy of calling, or my strategy.... which is... just go all in. My table image for the past hour is that I was willing to mix it up, play a lot of hands, and if you've read my username, I probably played those very hands poorly.

Given my table image, and given my previous comments in this thread. I couldn't do it. Flatting KK is just not in my DNA.

Spoiler 1:
Spoiler:
I just ripped it in for around $140 cold (Started with $200, and I get called by JJ, board runs clean). Opponent says: "I never put you on that."


Spoiler 2:
Spoiler:
I'm still buying the book


Anecdotal. Sure, but I'm not trying to make a living playing this game.
You basically did my strategy (which is the correct strategy) which is to raise an absurd number FOR VALUE (13x was just an example).
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12-04-2023 , 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
Hi Everyone:

Here's part of the Introduction to or upcoming book Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ’em: Help Them Give You Their Money. We expect to have the printed book up on Amazon in less than a month:

Introduction

Let’s start this book off with a few examples. These are just a few of the many types of hands which for the live small stakes games, usually $2-$5 or less, that we play differently from the way almost all other players in these games will play them, and is also different from much of the standard advice that is out there. So why do we do this?

The answer is simple. Against poor playing opponents, the best strategy for maximizing your win rate is to exploit these players as much as possible, sometimes with plays that look extreme. Especially to an “expert” player who often relies on Game Theory Optimal (GTO) to model his strategy.

Now, we understand that those who usually play GTO will, when appropriate, exploit their opponents. They do so when they see an opponent playing very badly which will make them make changes to their standard strategy. But they usually do this only in very obvious cases.

But that’s not the way we play these small stakes games. In these games, assuming the game is eight or nine-handed, it’s common to be against four ot more terrible players, and even most of the remaining players, who are usually semi-competent, will still make some significant errors, especially late in the hand when the big bets are in play.

If you were to go into a higher stakes (live) game, usually $5-$10 and up, where there are many strong players, and do many of the things that we’ll be recommending, your results will probably be disappointing. But if you stick to a game like $1-$3 no-limit hold ’em where the maximum buy-in is usually 100 to 200 big blinds, and follow the advice that is contained in this book, we suspect that you’ll be quite surprised and pleased with your results.

Our approach is not looking to make lots of great plays where you may steal a pot or knock a player out who, if he had stayed in, might have beaten you on a later street. We’re also not interested in constantly balancing our strategy and putting our opponent(s) at an “indifference point.” The experts can worry about that stuff, and if that’s your approach, play the higher stakes or perhaps limit hold ’em where recognizing small edges is highly important. But if you simply want to let your opponents give you their money, we’ll show you how to do it.

A Few Examples

(Again, these examples show you only a small number of the many ideas we will soon tell you about.) To see what we’re talking about, here are five examples. Notice that in every one of these hands, we’re playing differently, and sometimes very differently, from the way most poker instructors, coaches, book authors, poker video content producers, etc., will tell you how to play. It's true that, in general, their advice may be reasonably good, especially against tougher players than those we’ll be addressing. But it won’t be well targeted for these small stakes games. And if you’re playing live, these are the vast majority of games that are spread in our public cardrooms.

Example No. 1: Here’s a hand that David played in a Las Vegas $1-$3 game. It’s an extreme example, but we want to start with it to show how different many of the strategies in this book are and to give you an idea of how different, in some situations, our approach to maximizing your expectation is from the typical player, and this includes most of those who are currently having some success in live $1-$2, $1-$3, $2-$5, and similar no-limit hold ’em games.

In a $1-$3 no-limit game, David was dealt the

K K

two positions to the right of the button. The first four players limped in and David only called. The next two players folded, the small blind called, and the big blind checked.

The flop came the

J 9 7

The under-the-gun player bet, two players called, and then David threw his pair of kings in the muck.

Virtually no one else, at the time of this writing, would play a pair of kings in late position in a multiway pot this way. They would have made a substantial raise before the flop, and on the flop they would have certainly played their hand.

But let’s notice something obvious. If one of the last two positions or one of the blinds would have raised, when the action got back to David, he would have the option to make a big reraise, and if there were also a couple of callers, he would almost always be a large favorite to win a big pot assuming he got at least one caller.

As for his fold on the flop, given the way the hand was played, the reason for David’s fold is a little more complex, and that will be explained in detail later in this book. He would not have folded if the flop would have come something like the

J 7 2:

So, this example should give you an idea of what this book is about. To be specific, it’s playing your hands in the way that will exploit the weak players to the maximum. And as you can see from this example, some of the ways to do this aren't the ways that are generally advocated by the current crop of poker instructors and poker coaches as well as some of whom have been around. But there are ways, which will allow you to win the maximum at a reasonable risk that these small live stakes games have to offer.

Example No. 2: This hand was played by David. Under-the-Gun in a $1-$3 game at a full table, David held the

A K

Instead of raising first in as most poker instructors would recommend, he limped in for $3 and got three callers behind him plus the big blind. So, after the rake, there was $15 in the pot.

The flop came the

K 9 4

and with top pair, top kicker, David bet $15 and got one caller. The pot (after the rake) is now $42.

David saw that his lone opponent only had $80 left. And when a T came on the turn, David bet $80 and was called by his opponent who was now all-in. Unfortunately, a club came on the river and this player showed the

6 2

for a flush which won the pot.

Now some of you might say that if David had raised before the flop, as most players would, he would have won the pot. But notice that he got his opponent to call a large bet (for this game) getting 1.5-to-1 odds when he needed to make a 4-to-1 shot. So, theoretically, David won much more playing the hand this way than he would have won playing the hand in a conventional manner. And over time, these theoretical wins do turn into real money.

Example No. 3: Here’s a hand that Mason played. A timid early position player limped in, and Mason had concluded that this player absolutely never bluffed. Everyone folded to Mason who called with the 77 on the button. The small blind folded and the big blind checked.

Three random cards, including one overcard to the sevens, flopped. The big blind checked, the timid player bet a modest amount, and Mason folded.

Example No. 4: Here’s another hand that Mason played. In a $1-$3 game, an overly loose-aggressive player, two positions to the right of the button, raised to $10. The button called and Mason, who held the

A K

in the big blind called. Notice that the standard play would be to make a big reraise.

The flop came the

J 6 3

Mason checked, the loose-aggressive player bet $15, the button folded, and Mason called with his ace-king and three-flush. The turn was the 6 giving Mason a four-flush. Mason checked, the loose aggressive player bet $25, and Mason called.

The river was the A. Mason checked, the loose-aggressive player bet $50 and Mason called with his (now) aces-up and king kicker. The loose aggressive player then turned over the

A 2

Notice that he had bet a total of $100 on all four streets and never had the best hand.

Example No. 5: And for our final example, here’s a hand that David played. Before the flop in a $1-$2 game that had a maximum $300 buy-in, David called a limp with the

8 7

Five players, not including the small blind, saw the flop, and after the rake there was $10 in the pot. The flop was the

A 9 4

which gave David a flush draw. An early position player bet $8, and David called. Now there was $25 (after the rake) in the pot and both players had plenty of chips. The turn was a blank and David’s opponent bet $15 into the $25 pot bringing it to $38 (after the rake). This meant that David would be receiving immediate odds of $38-to-$15, or 2.53-to-1, to call. And since making a flush on the river is approximately 4-to-1, even if David can collect an additional bet when his flush comes in, this does not seem like enough to warrant a call. But David went ahead and called, bringing the pot to $52 (after the rake).

The flush card came on the river. The early position player checked, and David bet $70, $18 more than the size of the pot. And after thinking for a while, the early position player called and his top pair lost to the flush and David made $108 on his $15 call, which is approximately 7.2-to-1 on a 4-to-1 shot.


Lol these are all extremely poorly played hands. Nice book though.
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12-04-2023 , 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
Do you have an msrp?
Not yet. We'll make that decision when the manuscript is complete,

Mason
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12-04-2023 , 06:57 PM
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Originally Posted by the pleasure
29.95$ or 39.95$ is my guess
I think it'll be less.

Mason
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12-04-2023 , 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by pokerfan655
Lol these are all extremely poorly played hands. Nice book though.
Great explanation! When is your book coming out so I can learn more?
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12-04-2023 , 09:54 PM
Live exploits are often considered bad theory. Mind you full ring poker is far from solved.

What should start a conversation... Instead turns into... You're bad at poker, these are poorly played hands...

Limping vs certain lineups and action is certainly a profitable play.
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12-04-2023 , 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by PointlessWords
Play this strategy at the wynn and you’ll get wrecked. I’ve played there for ten years. You both are clueless to what you’re talking about

These aren’t smart plays. They are dumb plays


Gto will help you win double or triple the amount this book does.
Are you talking $1/$3 or $2/$5 (or above) at the Wynn. There is a huge difference in the quality of play. Huge. The $2/$5 games are definitely beatable, but the $1/$3 games are insanely beatable. I think a player who is sound in the Theory of Poker and is able to make decent reads couldn't lose over even a moderate sample size.

Also, maybe you misunderstood to point of my post. I am not defending the bizarre plays that were posted by the authors. I think they are terrible (unless there are extenuating circumstances, and then what is the point of posting exceptions?)

Finally, playing GTO at the Wynn $1/$3 is absolutely stupid. Unless of course you define GTO to be the optimal play against good opponents with adjustments against bad players. If you are making adjustments 90%+ of the time is it really GTO? Why not just call it what it really is? Poker.
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12-04-2023 , 10:07 PM
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Originally Posted by dude45
Gotta agree with Limon on this one why play in a game where the only people who can make any real money are the casinos. Don't forget on top of the outlandish rake of low stakes live you're also expected to tip the dealer every time you win a pot. If my only choices were play 1-2 live or get a job guess I'm putting my application in
Fallacy of false choice.

Your choices are not simply playing $1/$3 or getting a job. There is another choice of getting a job and then occasionally playing $1/$3 for fun while you drink with friends.
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12-04-2023 , 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by PointlessWords
Game selection is great when you don’t have good strategy. If you need to game select at 1/3 or 2/5 you suck. You can’t game select at 5/10 for the most part. Don’t learn a shitty skill. Learn to be the best or second best at every table
Completely misses the point.

Sure, a good player can beat almost any $2/$5 game or lower, but that misses the fact that there are a wide range of play at those games and the difference of the winning percentage of the worst $2/$5 games and the best $2/$5 games is huge.

A player could be the best player at their table, but if their edge is small, they will do better at a game where they are the 2nd best player, but their edge over the other 7 players is huge.

In poker game selection is far more important than play skill. Far more.

Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan didn't get stupid rich grinding against the best players in the world. They got rich by playing crappy players who had a ton of money and were willing to gamble with it (Macao).

There are hundreds (thousands???) Of poker players who are technically far better than Andrew Robl. However they cannot get into the nosebleed games he can get into. He spent his time socializing to get into these game rather than grinding out microscopic edges. He wins.
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12-04-2023 , 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by limon
youre like somebody who says they "just have more fun" playing triple zero roulette over single zero roulette. aka a sucker. i should be happy people like you are around i guess. i can lead a horse to water but i can't make it drink.
Wrong. I have never said or done any such thing.

Perhaps you should argue against what I have actually said rather than making crap up.

Be better.
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12-04-2023 , 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by PointlessWords
Folding is fine and prob neutral EV



What would it take for you to admit you’re wrong ?

When someone is playing too many hands it is most profitable to play the same or tighter

That will make you more money than playing looser.
I think a lot of this misses the point of more often than not these types of games are populated with players who wear their emotions of their sleeves.

There is nothing better than a weak tight player opening for 7.5 BB UTG and then calling with a suited 6 4 only to see the player openly wince when an Ace comes out on the flop and then check to you and folds when you bet with nothing. Literally cards do not matter in many of these situations, so why play tighter than them?

In these situations if you flop 2 pair you are getting doubled up/stacking them. If an overcard to their pair hits the flop (or they miss with AK) you are given a green light to steal, otherwise you lose 7.5 big blinds because their hand is face up.

Last edited by JimL; 12-04-2023 at 11:01 PM.
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12-04-2023 , 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by limon
You basically did my strategy (which is the correct strategy) which is to raise an absurd number FOR VALUE (13x was just an example).
Actually our book agrees with this if the pot has been raised. If someone makes it ten and gets a few calls, we say to usuially make it about 80 to 120 with KK. If you think this concept applies to mere limpers it may be because you live in California.
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12-05-2023 , 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick
This is absolutely, positively untrue.

It is my observation, for example, that in the typical LOLive 1-3 game, the population Simply. Does. Not. Three-bet. Enough. And when the opposition does not three-bet enough, the smart money can get away with raising a substantially wider range.

Let us suppose that, [mirablile dictu,[/i] the action is folded to us on the button, and we strongly suspect that the players in the blinds have three-betting ranges that look like {JJ+, AKs, AKo}. That is only 3% of all dealt hands. If everyone in the game were playing solver-derived ranges, we would expect the big blind to be three-betting somthing like 13-15% of dealt hands. That is a huge difference, and solvers tell us that, even if the BB played perfect Nash postflop (ha!) our opening range can be dramatically wider, simply because we don't face three-bets from the blinds very often.

I should say that I have not seen specific data for live low-stakes games, simply because it is pretty much impossible to collect. But I have seen analyses of online play that show that (1) the typical online 6max reg three-bets their big blind versus a button open 11.6% of the time, instead of the solver-recommended 13-15%. And when you node-lock a solver to account for this under-three-betting, the button's opening range expands from 43% to 58%. This is a huge jump, basically adding 200 more combos to the button's opening range. And this, again, is against a typical online reg, not your basic LOLive low-stakes mouth breather..

So no, MDA and solvers tell us quite unambiguously to play wider ranges against typical players than against ideal players.
What is going on is this. If players start making more mistakes of any type there are unquestionably hands that GTO had you folding that will now become profitable. That is irrefutable obvious logic. However less obvious but true is that there are times where an incorrect strategy against you, previously not done, harms certain specific starting hands. I already gave an example from draw poker. Holdem examples are not as simple to show. But there are undoubtedly certain starting hands recommended by GTO that are both borderline calls in most situations and are harmed by plays that are generally wrong but not against those specific hands. Those borderline GTO starting hands now become (theoretical) folds.

Whether the new extra hands that should be played when players increase their mistakes is larger than the hands that now turn into a fold I'm not sure. If they are the same number than PW would be technically correct that GTO doesn't loosen up as players play worse and still does just as well. And I suppose the perfect exploiter conceivably isn't playing a larger amount of starting hands either. But he is playing different hands. He is adding hands. That's for sure.
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12-05-2023 , 12:21 AM
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Originally Posted by JimL
Wrong. I have never said or done any such thing.

Perhaps you should argue against what I have actually said rather than making crap up.

Be better.
be better? lol. i am better son.

Last edited by limon; 12-05-2023 at 12:27 AM.
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12-05-2023 , 01:44 AM
Logic doesn’t solve poker problems. Data does. This is irrefutable logic tho


Let’s say the data shows you something contrary to what you surmised via logic

Which side would you pick then?
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12-05-2023 , 01:59 AM
Maybe someone should write a book applying MDA to 1/3 NL.
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12-05-2023 , 02:23 AM
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Originally Posted by deuceblocker
Maybe someone should write a book applying MDA to 1/3 NL.
What’s MDA?

Keep on thinking it’s the dental organization where 4 out of 5 choose Crest
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12-05-2023 , 02:41 AM
Mass Data Analysis. I was being a little sarcastic. I don't think anyone has been able to do it. There isn't really data on live, and microstakes online even 15 years ago are totally different. Plus you are dealing with multiway pots.

I posted ITT a link to a video on multiway pots from sort of a GTO approach, but not really solver based, as that is impossible.

I don't see how the poster plays GTO in 1/3 NL. You can apply certain GTO principles postflop, particularly in HU pots. GTO ranges are not correct. I mentioned playing pps and suited aces more in multiway pots. However, if you play GTO ranges, you won't play real loose like most of the donks in a 1/3 game.
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12-05-2023 , 03:05 AM
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Originally Posted by JimL
Completely misses the point.

Sure, a good player can beat almost any $2/$5 game or lower, but that misses the fact that there are a wide range of play at those games and the difference of the winning percentage of the worst $2/$5 games and the best $2/$5 games is huge.

A player could be the best player at their table, but if their edge is small, they will do better at a game where they are the 2nd best player, but their edge over the other 7 players is huge.

In poker game selection is far more important than play skill. Far more.

Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan didn't get stupid rich grinding against the best players in the world. They got rich by playing crappy players who had a ton of money and were willing to gamble with it (Macao).

There are hundreds (thousands???) Of poker players who are technically far better than Andrew Robl. However they cannot get into the nosebleed games he can get into. He spent his time socializing to get into these game rather than grinding out microscopic edges. He wins.
I’ve never ever ever played in a game where the best player didn’t have a large edge on everyone. Usually it’s the top 2-3 players

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker
Mass Data Analysis. I was being a little sarcastic. I don't think anyone has been able to do it. There isn't really data on live, and microstakes online even 15 years ago are totally different. Plus you are dealing with multiway pots.

I posted ITT a link to a video on multiway pots from sort of a GTO approach, but not really solver based, as that is impossible.

I don't see how the poster plays GTO in 1/3 NL. You can apply certain GTO principles postflop, particularly in HU pots. GTO ranges are not correct. I mentioned playing pps and suited aces more in multiway pots. However, if you play GTO ranges, you won't play real loose like most of the donks in a 1/3 game.
You should learn why the solver chooses to do what it does. It’s pretty simplistic. Lots of free info about this online
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12-05-2023 , 03:18 AM
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Originally Posted by PointlessWords
You should learn why the solver chooses to do what it does. It’s pretty simplistic. Lots of free info about this online
I do know something about that, but there is a limit to how much you can apply GTO to multiway pots with loose passive play, etc.
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12-05-2023 , 03:51 AM
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Originally Posted by PointlessWords
Logic doesn’t solve poker problems. Data does. This is irrefutable logic tho


Let’s say the data shows you something contrary to what you surmised via logic

Which side would you pick then?

Assuming I didn't screw up, it's the logic side. If your opponent never folded, you would obviously increase your EV if you added hands. You may be right that their preflop looseness doesn't mean you should loosen up from GTO. But if they play terribly postflop of course you should. If the data doesn't show this it would be because few opponents play bad enough for the syndrome to kick in when the data is gathered. But at some point, it obviously does.

(Note: Even if a GTO player is resistant to becoming looser when they do, the same is not true for the exploiting player.)
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