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Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc"

01-22-2013 , 11:12 AM
I forgot to count dead cards in my post above. I'm too lazy to do it again counting dead cards (I would also have to decrease stack sizes to give 98 the odds to shove) but the example is still good for showing the concept as is. I guess we can just add the rule that all folded hands are shuffled back into the deck before dealing the turn and river and then it's fine.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
01-22-2013 , 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bazaro
2- Over the long-haul, won't a player who is clicking buttons all-day, who plays 1m+ hands an year, reach most of the same strategy conclusions as a more theoretical/mathy player would achieve? Every hand has multiple decision points, you would think that playing such a large volume would "naturally" lead to playing very top-level poker assuming that you improve your thought process/watch better players etc right?
Yes in some ways, no in others. For example, both practical experience and mathematical theory will lead you to certain conclusions, such as that it's better to play looser in later position, it's important to have both value and bluffing ranges in certain spots, etc. That being said, a player who plays purely based on experience will also deviate from GTO play in many spots. For example, he will fold a very large portion of his range when check-raised on the turn vs. most players, because even though this is theoretically quite exploitable, in reality, most people at most limits do not check-raise the turn without monster hands. As you climb to higher and higher stakes I do believe you see top level players moving closer to optimal poker, since you can't have too many exploitable tendencies in your game without the other regs picking up on it and slaughtering you. On the other hand, it's possible that true GTO play would look absolutely crazy to us, with bet sizes and lines nobody would ever consider, simply because figuring out the value of such lines is beyond the mental capacity of anyone playing today.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
It is very easy to describe GTO strategy to the layman but I guess it is left to me to do it.

Imagine if you are forced to tell your opponent how you will play every hand in every situation. But with the stipulation that the strategy you are divulging includes some randomizing. But the randomizing probabilities have to be divulged also. So perhaps you will divulge that playing limit holdem you will, with aces in the big blind reraise 85% and flat call a raise 15%.

Armed with this information your opponent can guarantee himself a break even game. By matching your play. And he can guarantee a win by usually matching your strategy, the one you divulged to him, except when he is sure there is a better alternative.

The only way that your expert opponent doesn't have the nuts is if somehow your strategy is clearly "perfect" game theory wise. In that case any time he tried to improve upon your strategy he would cost himself money (or in some cases do equally). An example might be if he tried to improve on your calling strategy on the river when he could easily be bluffing. You call a pot sized bet half the time. If he doesn't mimic you he will cost himself money if your bluffing strategy is good.

But most decisions are far more complicated than that. And it is reasonable to assume that if you have to go first in divulging your strategy he will be able to come up with one that beats it. Think picking the best all in hand from 22 AKoffsuit and JT suited. Not a perfect analogy but you see what I mean. Similarly it might stand to reason that If I have to come up with a strategy that I am forced to divulge, there are head up games where this onus is going to allow a smart opponent to exploit it no matter what that strategy is. Even with randomizing my being fordced to divulge means the other guy can find a counterstrategy that wins. It would seem that n some head up games there is no divulged strategy that is immune.

Except that John Nash suppsedly proved that all symetrical head up games, by their mere headupness, ARE immune. There is a strategy, according to him that exists for everyone of them whereby even if you divulge it to your opponent, he can't use this information to get an edge. That strategy may take a supercomputer a trillion years to find but it is out there somewhere. His logical proof of this helped him get a Nobel Prize
Quote:
Originally Posted by waq
I would call myself a layman but what you write does nothing for my understanding. I am clueless and probably hopeless. This has not stopped me from reading every post ITT. Hope springs eternal.

As far as a trillion years goes, I believe the universe is only 16 billion years old.
+1 I didn't understand one sentence. Sounded cool though.

Last edited by Ryen; 02-27-2013 at 11:38 AM. Reason: actually, 4 of them, first 2 and last 2 :D
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 01:41 PM
I'm so confused right now; and I have a few questions.

Who is the bot playing GTO againt (NLHU)? Is bot only playing GTO versus another bot playing GTO, like they're in Nash equilibrium?

If I (or some genius) played infinite hands against a GTO bot, I would know all of its vpip,pfr,3bet,tripplebarrel, blahblah frequencies. Then I should be able to play the same as it, if not exploit it?

How can a bot play GTO when neither player is in Nash equilibrium? In a standard game of NLHU, information is always incomplete.. So it's impossible for the 2 players to ever be in Nash equilibrium?

Why can't I make GTO bot V2 (lol) that knows all of GTO bot V1's strategies? I'm saying this because a GTO bot can NEVER ADJUST? Then how can the GTO bot V1 ever, even remotely, play optimally against anything, or anyone that knows every single possible move it can make?

Last edited by Ryen; 02-27-2013 at 01:46 PM.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 01:53 PM
I suggest you investigate just what it is that GTO actually means. That should answer most of your questions.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 02:22 PM
This thread is like a perpetual loop of people asking the same questions the exact same way and people responding with hugely varied and mostly flawed answers.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 02:27 PM
I did, I don't see how it's possible to make a bot make nothing but -ev decisions if we know its "strategies", and it can't/never adjust.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 02:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatsauce
I suggest you investigate just what it is that GTO actually means. That should answer most of your questions.
Or did I miss the post that said it's possible to beat this bot if we both/all knew each others "strategies"?
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
02-27-2013 , 03:09 PM
ryen, knowledge of an opponent's strategy does not guarantee you a win.

playing a gto-strategy is what happens after all players have adjusted their strategies to a point at which every additional adjustment has a non-posititve ev (nash-equilibrum). they may know each other's strategies exactly, but cannot profit from devaiting from the equilibrum in any way.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 09:14 AM
Interresting stuff.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 12:17 PM
The one thing I don't understand is that some of the top NLHE HU players like Ike etc claim they try to play GTO.

I don't believe them, in that that would mean they do not try to adjust their play AT ALL to the way their opponents are playing. What they are most likely doing is incorporating some GTO concepts into their otherwise exploitative strategy.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 01:22 PM
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Err, and how exactly is Kanu playing GTO when nobody knows what the GTO strategy looks like?
Quote:
He says he is (or tries to), ask him then.
Person A: I'm trying to find a particular kind of tree?
Person B: Okay I'll help - what does it look like?
Person A: I have no idea.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueodum
The one thing I don't understand is that some of the top NLHE HU players like Ike etc claim they try to play GTO.
I don't think I ever said this. If I did I was being sloppy with my word choices.

Quote:
I don't believe them, in that that would mean they do not try to adjust their play AT ALL to the way their opponents are playing. What they are most likely doing is incorporating some GTO concepts into their otherwise exploitative strategy.
Yeah, this is about right.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ike
I don't think I ever said this. If I did I was being sloppy with my word choices.



Yeah, this is about right.
In after Ike.

Ike:- do you think durrr is a fish? Seriously though, were you paraphrased in that interview?
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
I don't believe them, in that that would mean they do not try to adjust their play AT ALL to the way their opponents are playing. What they are most likely doing is incorporating some GTO concepts into their otherwise exploitative strategy.
!!!
GIVE THIS MAN A COOKIE
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 06:52 PM
In after Jungle!

In before durrr outlash.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 08:30 PM
No one can ever play true GTO because of the subconscious. No matter if we think we are making a decision based solely on analysis, and our chosen strategy, all decisions that a person makes will contain a trace of emotion.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 09:07 PM
What if someone with a super brain who knew nothing about poker read and memorized the GTO strat book.

He would simply play according to what the book said and his decisions would have no emotional attachment.


I don't think it's that hard to act without emotion if you know the correct strategy. If I knew how to play GTO I would implement it without emotion and feel like an idiot if I did anything else, unless I was obviously exploiting someone.

Last edited by FrankShank; 03-06-2013 at 09:14 PM.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankShank
What if someone with a super brain who knew nothing about poker read and memorized the GTO strat book.

He would simply play according to what the book said and his decisions would have no emotional attachment.


I don't think it's that hard to act without emotion if you know the correct strategy. If I knew how to play GTO I would implement it without emotion and feel like an idiot if I did anything else, unless I was obviously exploiting someone.
Super brain or not ,emotion occurs naturally in all human beings from birth...what is a newborn babies cry?

Also as he plays if he ever paused and questioned just one decision......
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankShank
What if someone with a super brain who knew nothing about poker read and memorized the GTO strat book.

He would simply play according to what the book said and his decisions would have no emotional attachment.


I don't think it's that hard to act without emotion if you know the correct strategy. If I knew how to play GTO I would implement it without emotion and feel like an idiot if I did anything else, unless I was obviously exploiting someone.
There are rock-paper-scissors competitions. The best players have consistent success, so apparently there's some skill in it, despite the fact that the GTO strategy is very simple and everyone knows it.

Playing randomly like GTO play requires just isn't something the human brain is good at, and so there's always a chance for players who are good at picking up patterns in their opponent's play to come in and play exploitatively.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:09 PM
Of course he has emotions but they won't effect his decisions.

He's not going to start doing random **** in a game he doesn't understand just because he is upset when he has an unbeatable strategy memorised.... At least not with his super brain
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yaqh
There are rock-paper-scissors competitions. The best players have consistent success, so apparently there's some skill in it, despite the fact that the GTO strategy is very simple and everyone knows it.

Playing randomly like GTO play requires just isn't something the human brain is good at, and so there's always a chance for players who are good at picking up patterns in their opponent's play to come in and play exploitatively.
www.random.org
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankShank
Yes, in contrast, randomness is obviously something that computers are pretty good at.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:16 PM
so i came to this thread and first few words i see are time-space, laboratory, quantum and stephan hawking...bye guys, ill keep on spewing
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote
03-06-2013 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankShank
What if someone with a super brain who knew nothing about poker read and memorized the GTO strat book.
Hope he's got a lot of free time, that's gonna be a long read.
Hoss_TBF: "All top players use game theory, distributions, bluff ratios etc" Quote

      
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