*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD *** - Page 120 - Poker News

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*** Durrrr Challenge: Stage II; Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates - IN RUNNING THREAD ***

View Poll Results: Who will win the Durrrr Challenge II?

Tom "Durrrr" Dwan

1,577 41.89%

Daniel "Jungleman12" Cates

2,188 58.11%

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11-27-2010 , 01:29 AM

#2976

28renton

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,627

Did Jungleman sell off some of his action to do this challenge?

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11-27-2010 , 01:38 AM

#2977

THE M SHOW

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 594

yes he did

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11-27-2010 , 01:51 AM

#2978

captZEEbo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 9,991

thanks a ton for the videos Matt Probability, it's GREATLY appreciated!

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11-27-2010 , 02:14 AM

#2979

kap arai

adept

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 888

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyironThumb

Great work with the video hand replys, thanks!

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11-27-2010 , 02:16 AM

#2980

poopcrew

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 77

durrrr is like god everything he does seems to to be correct when it isnt.. jungleman is the great scientist who proves god never existed..

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11-27-2010 , 04:37 AM

#2981

The_Truth1

banned

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 658

647k

good baby, goood

Gogogogogo Durrrrrrrrr

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ed

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11-27-2010 , 04:43 AM

#2982

Andro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,165

They're playing for millions of dollars, you would think they could take a whole day out of their schedule to play this thing instead of constantly having things to do.

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11-27-2010 , 04:45 AM

#2983

hotwings18

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 11,316

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andro

They're playing for millions of dollars, you would think they could take a whole day out of their schedule to play this thing instead of constantly having things to do.

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11-27-2010 , 04:56 AM

#2984

Borderline_Retard

banned

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 501

seems like theyre def putting a lot of weight into timing the sessions... looking for times when the other person seems off their A game

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11-27-2010 , 05:29 AM

#2985

idonot

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 278

Durrrr's challenge Fulltilt.com numbers
Last Session:

Session Start Time Nov 26 2010, 18:53 ET
Session End Time Nov 26 2010, 20:16 ET
Hands Played 769
Winner Durrrr
Amount Won $47,341.50

Overall Challenge Stats:

Hands 9,783 of 50K
Total Bet $58,125,811.00
Total Sessions 8
Time Played 15 hours 45 mins

durrrr Player Stats:

Total Amount Lost ($647,505.00)
Total Hands Won 3,755
Average $ Won per Winning Hand $2,274.46

Jungleman12 Player Stats

Total Amount Won $645,667.00
Total Hands Won 5,967
Average $ Won per Winning Hand $1,539.63

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11-27-2010 , 07:01 AM

#2986

Tempestt Bledsoe

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 115

Quote:

Originally Posted by idonot

durrrr Player Stats:

Total Amount Lost ($647,505.00)
Total Hands Won 3,755
Average $ Won per Winning Hand $2,274.46

Jungleman12 Player Stats

Total Amount Won $645,667.00
Total Hands Won 5,967
Average $ Won per Winning Hand $1,539.63

Does it seem crazy to anyone else that Jungleman is winning so many more hands than Tom? I realize it's not a big sample and that there's variance at work, but the gap is gigantic. Especially for a player like Tom Dwan, who I always thought thrived on taking down more pots than his opponents. Doesn't seem like a good sign for him that Jungleman is outdurrrring durrrr

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11-27-2010 , 07:08 AM

#2987

idonot

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 278

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tempestt Bledsoe

in the challenge vs P Antonius, Durrrr was also winning less hands but bigger ones

Quote

11-27-2010 , 07:49 AM

#2988

checkamat

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 220

Quote:

Originally Posted by idonot

in the challenge vs P Antonius, Durrrr was also winning less hands but bigger ones

not according to full tilt. Durrrr won 20700 PA 18593

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11-27-2010 , 08:42 AM

#2989

hammer_time

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 2,787

I just can't see Durrrr winning this. He knows he is getting out-played here which is why we probably won't see anymore action for 2 months.

Durrrr's best shot is to hope either:

a) JM hits an awful run of hands and he tilts badly spewing off a load of buyins
b) JM hits a downswing in poker in general and starts to doubt and question his plays and Durrrr logs a load of challenge hands in to capitalise

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11-27-2010 , 08:54 AM

#2990

chicken10der

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 7,495

you don't win 60% more hands than your opponent hu over 10k hands without running really well

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11-27-2010 , 08:56 AM

#2991

A B D U L I N H O

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 98

break the challenge down in 5 sessions of 10k hands

he lost the first part with almost -700k ...
now the second part starts
and after every part, he'll reevaluate imo
so far: behind and pretty big, but it can go quick 6-tabling

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11-27-2010 , 08:59 AM

#2992

Tempestt Bledsoe

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 115

Quote:

Originally Posted by chicken10der

you don't win 60% more hands than your opponent hu without running really well

Obviously, but the question is how realistic is it to think that it's purely variance dictating such a tremendous difference? If they both played the exact same style and made the exact same decisions, we would expect pots won to average out to 50/50 and any deviation from that would be variance. It would be similar to flipping a coin.

Consider that it would be nearly impossible to realistically flip a coin almost 10k times and have a difference between heads and tails even close to this large. Doesn't that suggest playing style is probably a dominant factor? Or is there something wrong with my logic?

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11-27-2010 , 09:13 AM

#2993

where da ho go

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 401

Its amazing how quickly people write people off. Im not saying durrrr is going to win this but to just say that he is done is just ridiculous. I doubt any sensible person believes that Jungle is this much better than durrrr to be winning at the rate he is.

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11-27-2010 , 09:26 AM

#2994

mumrik

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 285

Quote:

Originally Posted by where da ho go

Yeah I agree with this. Junglemans graph at HSDB is almost vertical and it shows results for only a year. He is clearly running very good and will start losing at some point.

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11-27-2010 , 10:14 AM

#2995

hammer_time

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 2,787

Quote:

Originally Posted by where da ho go

I doubt any sensible person believes that Jungle is this much better than durrrr to be winning at the rate he is.

Has anyone actually said that?

If I recall correctly JM also played Durrrr for about 7k hands before the challenge too and beat him pretty badly over that sample as well so that's 16-17k hands of getting whupped. Statistically that is pretty significant, 17k hands of hu nl is quite a lot, equivalent to about 50k hands of nl 6max.

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11-27-2010 , 10:35 AM

#2996

coxquinn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,729

I could only read the last 2 posts than I got too tilted to continue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mumrik

Yeah I agree with this. Junglemans graph at HSDB is almost vertical and it shows results for only a year. He is clearly running very good and will start losing at some point.

This sentence is utterly ridiculous. Winning players run goo too, you know, which is overwhelmingly the case w JM. (the higher the winrate, the more and more likely they are winning players, not the opposite, ldo)

Quote:

Originally Posted by hammer_time

I don't think it's fair to make that comparison (even if you are saying variance is ~3x greater in HU), but even if it were true, big winners at 6max players can BE for 50k hands with a low but very real probability.

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11-27-2010 , 11:02 AM

#2997

RT999

banned

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 197

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tempestt Bledsoe

Completely agree. I'm very surprised.

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11-27-2010 , 11:15 AM

#2998

UCBananaboy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 8,171

Anyone know what kind of W$WOSD JM has?

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11-27-2010 , 11:23 AM

#2999

hammer_time

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 2,787

Quote:

Originally Posted by coxquinn

Statistical significance is based around drawing a conclusion with a certain probability e.g. 90%, so what you are saying about big winners breaking even with a low probability isn't contradictory.

In 6 max you are folding 75% of hands preflop whereas in HU you are folding only about 25% of hands preflop. So one thousand hands of HU captures way more 'played hands' than one thousand hands of 6 max.

Obviously though 16-17k hands hu isn't a massive sample but it has quite a bit of significance in at least determining who is the better player (not the actual true rate the winner is winning at)

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11-27-2010 , 11:38 AM

#3000

coxquinn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,729

huh? I play 100% of my hands at 6max

... what does that even have to do with the issue at hand? edit: Imagine a 6max "fish" who limps in 100% in unraised pots and always c/folds the flop no matter what vs. a "bad reg" who "plays" (raises first in) top 25% of hands than always shoves the flop. Who will have more variance?

Do you have any idea what the variance of the durrr challenge has been? Is that reliable since it assumes the variance follows a normal (natural) probability distribution? If you know all this, what is the percent chance with say a 95% CI (or exactly 2 standard deviations, w/e you prefer) that Jungleman has a positive winrate?

I'm not going to derail thread more but I can't answer all the above questions, and I'm guessing neither can you.

Last edited by coxquinn; 11-27-2010 at 11:47 AM.

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