Clearly delusional, down 750K.

He is so good he had to stall when Doug decided on a slight strategy change.

Yeh, you are better than Doug.....

Doug is playing to win the challenge.

It's not that delusional, he's up over the last 10k hands. I don't think he's the better player but for him to think that is not that crazy. Clearly they are pretty close at this point.

At 5:18:20 in the video Brent Hanks said "Obviously Doug is done, you want a rematch, he's out"

If Doug is so far ahead of DNegs, why is Doug the one quitting him?

WCGRider is that true? You don't want a rematch vs Negreanu after this match?

Oh? Why is that obvious? Has Doug said so? I'd be shocked if he wouldn't agree to another 25k hands.

That's what Brent Hanks said in the interview. Maybe Doug can come in here and clear up whether he'd like a rematch after this over. I agree though, I don't think Doug wants a rematch. He doesn't like playing poker and he realizes whatever edge he has is not that great.



Yeah it's obvious Doug is finished.

Yes he did. It was after Wednesday's session.

Does appear to be a lot closer than when they started. DP was meant to crush DN and that has not happened.

Agree with the format talk. 25k hands is too long. Not seeing the hands makes it a lot less interesting. Will be good to see how popular Heads Up Duel gets when covid is out the way. That Hellmuth match was fun to watch.

I know people hate facts but even when Doug was up 1 million he said he is done because he hates poker.
He is unlikley do this again because clearly

(a) Dnegs with the help of his coaches has definitely improved.
(b) He is unlikely to get the side action bets to make it worth his while.
(c) He currently hates poker, he has stated this multiple times, that's why he doesn't want a rematch.

I'm not sure if many of you have been independently wealthy but when you have enough F you money, things you don't like to do become far less appealing.
Dnegs clearly still loves poker so I'm sure there will be plenty of other people willing to challenge him.
I think Dnegs vs Galfond or Dnegs vs Linus would be far more interesting.

DP did crush DN.

Then....

DP beat DN and his coaches. The match isn’t over but it will be soon.

Can they import the hands into some tracker? So that we can see the results after the challenge is over?

Of course it is. Dnegs has hired some world class coaches?
Would you expect him to get worse?

When Doug changed strategies they gave Dnegs an ipad full of counter strategies.
Dnegs didn't come up with those ranges.

As for crushing, Doug is around 9 BB/100 , not terrible. Well within reasonable SD if you estimate his true edge to be 10-12BB/100
As can be seen by the swings, the edge can vary a lot over a small sample.

At this stage of the challenge, win rate is secondary to winning.

The side bets are in the millions.

Anybody would be stupid NOT to give up a little EV in certain spots to reduce variance and lock up the challenge.

If Dnegs doesn't care about the money then I would expect him to give up EV to increase variance.

We shall see.

<20 buy-ins at this stage is not crushing someone

Wasn't the consensus that DP would win this by millions. I sure thought that would be the case.

Yes he is winning and very likely take down those nice side-bets. But it was much harder than he and others thought it would be.

I don't care who wins. Was only hoping for a close ending to make for an exciting finish.

We don't know his true win rate. Like you said it could be higher than the 9bb/100 but it is also true to say it could be lower.

You are right, those side-bets are what matters now.

DN should be the one doing the overbet allins on the river now. Will be interesting to see if he ramps up the aggression level vs a player locking it up. Now I can't wait for the next match.

Every match from here on out can be the last.

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No, just over 1 million was the estimate based on the odds of the challenge.

0 chance they play a ~3600 hand session Monday

They mean that if Doug wins a certain amount on Monday, then he could reach the threshold where he can just fold down...

Eg if hes up 901k and only 3000 hands to go, he technically could just fold 100%...1500*600 =900k

He's only 200k away from that. So if they play 600hand sess on Monday and he wins 200k game is over

I think the point is different. There are sufficiently few hands left that DP is within range of a guaranteed lockout if he folds every hand; if he reaches that point and takes that strategy to lock up side bets, game over.

If/when this happens, should DN open shove the button 100% hoping DP gets tempted to call with big pairs?

In his Wed post-game he mentioned being just about to a point where he is up enough that he can play his normal game to finish out the hands, so the fold down talk is moot.

Delusional Danny schwonging his bick swinging dick/sausage.

My impression from Doug interviews is that he won't fold away an $800,000 lead but will instead play a more careful and low variance style, i.e., he'll take the very small risk of losing the challenge so he can lock up more winnings in the match itself (apart from sidebets), as he believes he still has an edge.

General consensus in this thread was that Doug would win slightly over $1m (a few people settled on ~$1.4m) which is still possible; also I believe Doug when he says that DNegs has been running in the top 10% of opponents in terms of luck, I just don't see him lying about that.

Also his interview yesterday made it clear that he won't be taking up any more heads-up challenges.

I can see how this is going to play out, a reasonable human being would play out, accept the loss then move on to the next thing. Doug making it clear he doesn't want to play any more is just setting Dnegs up for the mega rants about how Dougs too scared to play him again because he now knows hes a dog.

Personally i would love it if Dougs playing the long game knowing that if he bangs on about not playing any more Dnegs will throw out a million and one challenges. Let him stew in his own juices for a few weeks then BAM, Ok Daniel lets go, 50k more hands, 5 milly on the side. Doubt this is whats happening but would be so sweet.

In the recent post-match interview, Daniel plainly stated the fact that Doug was likely not interested in a rematch/extension, and rolled right into the idea of who he would take on next.

Kind of crazy Doug was trying to get action vs anyone in the world if they gave him 5bb/100 a month ago, now he doesn’t even wanna rematch DNegs.