Doug Polk's Challenge to Daniel Negreanu: Heads-Up NLHE Showdown (25k Hands) - Page 267 - Poker News

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Doug Polk's Challenge to Daniel Negreanu: Heads-Up NLHE Showdown (25k Hands)

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Page 267 of 362

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Last

12-28-2020 , 01:22 PM

#6651

NewAcctIsBest

banned

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 1,039

If the other guy in the tortellini pot had won , he woulda taken the whole pot we would’ve never heard about it. Since he would be elated with the winning outcome I don’t think it’s fair to let him be mad about the losing outcome.

My prediction here is Daniel extends the challenge like an idiot, Doug brings out his A+ game, and Daniel ends up losing 2.5x-3.5c what he loses the first round.

But tbh I assume dnegs tries to buyout once he is down 2 milly and there’s 7k hands left to play

Quote

12-28-2020 , 01:43 PM

#6652

George Rice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 1,913

Quote:

Originally Posted by SrslySirius

Where did he say that? If you're winning by 61k with 200 hands remaining, and you have millions in sidebets, it would be ludicrous not to fold out.

I've heard him say a few times that sidebets can only hurt the winrate of the better player.

Polk indicated earlier in this thread that he's going to maximize EV and evaluate at about 20-23K hands.

Yes, with a $61K lead with 200 hands to go, folding out is the way to go. But there are other considerations to consider before it gets to that point. For example, he could lose the effective stacks on each table almost instantly. If that's $50K on each table, he would need to be aware of that at $161K/202, and so on. It's a very interesting and complex situation when the lead is relatively small as the match winds down.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 01:53 PM

#6653

NJPW

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,499

Quote:

Originally Posted by SrslySirius

Perhaps George is right and I misunderstood. It was on a post game interview at some point.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 02:25 PM

#6654

BDHarrison

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 4,532

If they play the full 25K, would you bet the over or the under on the margin being the same in the back half as in the first 12.5K hands?

Quote

12-28-2020 , 02:53 PM

#6655

George Rice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 1,913

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDHarrison

If they play the full 25K, would you bet the over or the under on the margin being the same in the back half as in the first 12.5K hands?

Lower, as Negreanu should be getting better over time. Also, all this talk about Negreanu's running bad in all-in pots indicates the match should be closer. If they're at $800K after the first 12.5K hands, that's a win rate of 16BB/100. Polk's actual win rate over an extended time period is probably lower than that. You'll probably have to lay odds to bet under at the first 12.5K win amount. The over/under amount will probably be somewhere around $500K for the second 12.5K hands.

Last edited by George Rice; 12-28-2020 at 03:01 PM.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 04:15 PM

#6656

butt factory

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 90

Quote:

Originally Posted by George Rice

Yeah I agree with this. Negreanu's drunken tilt videos and whiny interviews and other antics make him seem fishier than he is. Clearly he's losing vs Polk but he has objectively run very bad in all-in spots and to my eyes has also run bad in big showdown pots/coolers.

I think the idea mentioned upthread that Polk has some magical A+ game that he's been holding back from using, and will go super saiyan once they pass the 12.5k is lol.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 04:48 PM

#6657

valaea3

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 129

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound

actually yes he is committed to play the whole 25k hands after he goes beyond 12500.

my understanding is that they never signed a contract, it's a gentleman's agreement -- it would look bad for DNegs if he quits randomly at 18k hands but there's nothing preventing him from doing so, as far as I can tell

Quote

12-28-2020 , 05:08 PM

#6658

ChicagoJoey

Papi

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 15,583

Quote:

Originally Posted by SrslySirius

Here you go

lol wp

Quote

12-28-2020 , 05:57 PM

#6659

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

Round #22 of the High Stakes Feud begins in about half an hour.

Going into today's action, Doug leads by $810,468 after 12,221 hands.

https://upswingpoker.com/hu4grudge/
---

Round #22 Live Cast: Upswing Poker Twitch Channel (currently streaming Round #21 replay)
---

Round #22 Live Cast: Doug Polk Poker YouTube Channel (Mike Brady, Ryan Riske)

---
Round #22 Live Cast: GGPoker YouTube Channel (Jeff Platt, Amanda Negreanu, Brent Hanks)

---
Round #22 Live Cast: Joeingram1 YouTube Channel (Joey Ingram, Landon Tice)

---
Round #22 Live Cast: Solve For Why YouTube Channel (Matt Berkey, Christian Soto)

_____

Last edited by dhubermex; 12-28-2020 at 06:09 PM.

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12-28-2020 , 08:00 PM

#6660

BlackJackDegen

self-banned

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 875

That overbet sizing on the river with the blocker seemed a little mental from Doug.

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12-28-2020 , 08:01 PM

#6661

isunkurbttlship

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 7,674

HH?

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:06 PM

#6662

BlackJackDegen

self-banned

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 875

Quote:

Originally Posted by isunkurbttlship

HH?

80k effective. Doug raise to 950. Dnegs calls.

As9cJh. Doug bets 2.4k into 1.5ish

Turn 7c. Doug bets pot of 6.7k

River 4d. Doug shoves for 70k into 20k pot.

Spoiler:

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:07 PM

#6663

Habman

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,070

82 = loose play

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12-28-2020 , 08:08 PM

#6664

Masq

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 15,134

I think it's done at 12.5k

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:09 PM

#6665

Habman

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,070

Quote:

Originally Posted by Masq

I think it's done at 12.5k

Not a chance.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:18 PM

#6666

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,831

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habman

82 = loose play

82s in a standard open ip HU. You don't see them open fold many buttons. Not sure if the other play is standard. However, everyone here has been saying DP has been outplaying DN with overbet bluffs. They seem to be 3!ing and calling 4!s with 54s, 64s etc.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:19 PM

#6667

deuceblocker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 4,831

Did they stop early because they played 12.5K and maybe DN won't continue?

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:25 PM

#6668

golfbum983

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,943

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

Did they stop early because they played 12.5K and maybe DN won't continue?

No they said they were stopping at 12.5k hands after last match regardless

Anyone know the odds for daniels side if they go another 12.5?

10-1?

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:29 PM

#6669

BlackJackDegen

self-banned

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 875

Daniel doesn't seem like 100% on continuing in his current postmatch interview as he had been previously. It still sounds likely but just not as ironclad sounding as he has been when asked about it in the past. It does sound like had those last 20 hands not gone his way for two massive pots that he would have quit.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 08:42 PM

#6670

Wilbury Twist

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,410

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

Did they stop early because they played 12.5K and maybe DN won't continue?

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfbum983

No they said they were stopping at 12.5k hands after last match regardless

Anyone know the odds for daniels side if they go another 12.5?

10-1?

Emphasis added.

Funny that you lead with "No," when it seems to me that the "maybe" and the "if" is precisely the reason they halted today's session at the 12,500th hand. Per the terms of the challenge, this is the only opportunity for the trailing player (in this case, Negreanu) to back out. So even if he's 99.9% sure he'll keep going, Negreanu will want to pause at this spot.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 09:06 PM

#6671

parisron

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,826

Quote

12-28-2020 , 09:11 PM

#6672

Habman

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,070

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

Just re-iterating the commentary from Ingram and Tice... 1:23:25 of their stream.

... in regards to the huge BB shove on the river.

Good entertainment value, though.

Any my apologies... it was "loose action" not loose play. LOL

Last edited by Habman; 12-28-2020 at 09:26 PM.

Quote

12-28-2020 , 09:23 PM

#6673

jakedamus

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,992

Quote:

Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey

It's pretty easy to implement this if you're playing online:

This guy often begins his reasoning as to what he will do with something like "I roll a 69, so ..."

What’s the name of the automatic rng software he is using ?