Quote:
Originally Posted by Quickened
To be clear I wasn't advocating this position as much as inquiring about peoples thoughts on it. This is the first time I've heard COVID-19 mutates and we are susceptible to the mutant strains. Are they proposed to be worse than the original?
The SARS-COV-2 virus (which causes Covid-19) is constantly evolving and mutating, but at a relatively slow rate in comparison to other viruses, like HIV for example. You can see a 'family tree' of the 946 samples (so far) that have had their genes sequenced at
https://nextstrain.org/ncov
On the left of the tree are the oldest samples, collected from Hubei. Thanks to the colour-coding, you can see that
most of the American samples (shown in red) came from the same branch of the tree, but have been mutating into slightly different versions as time went on, such that a case in Utah is almost certainly a "grandchild" of an earlier variant in Washington State, and a case in Melbourne, Australia also had an ancestor in Washington.
Some of these strains have more mutations than others, with the basic idea that the further you move to the right on the chart, the more evolved/mutated the samples are. Most of the American samples show an
average divergence. It's actually a couple of samples from
Belgium that have the most mutations, but that's probably just a quirk of randomness.
Having a lot of mutations doesn't necessarily mean a variant is more or less dangerous. For one thing, this virus has close to 30,000 bits of information in its genes, and only a handful of changes have occurred in them, so every version is
almost identical. It's still Coronavirus-19, in much the same way that a banana from one tree might be slightly larger than a banana from a different tree, but they are still bananas of the same species. Secondly, when viruses mutate (usually detected over a larger time scale), they tend to become more contagious, but less deadly, or more deadly, but less contagious. Occasionally you get a double-whammy of them being more contagious
and more deadly than previously (like the 'Spanish' flu of 1918), but sometimes the random mutations lead a virus to evolve itself almost out of existence. That's why some flu outbreaks are worse than others, and also why a new flu vaccine has to be made every year (and sometimes even more frequently).
At this point in time, there is no suggestion (AFAIK) that any of the variants found thus far are "worse" than others. It's killing people all over the world, and there has continued to be international transmission. (Some Americans are getting a version that had an ancestor that sent its 'children' to Europe and those had at least one child that returned to the US! There were bad viruses on both sides.)