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Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread) Coronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread)
View Poll Results: Will the Corona Virus will alter their plans to attend WSOP this Summer (if it's not canceled)
Never planned on attending.
177 32.48%
Definitely wont attend.
112 20.55%
Probably wont attend.
93 17.06%
Probably will attend.
71 13.03%
Definitely will attend.
92 16.88%

03-23-2020 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
So, as of this moment, the mortality rate of confirmed cases in the US is at 1.2%, which is now the same as S. Korea. Hard to say what this will look like in the future, but its interesting to note that it is 3x the mortality rate compared to Germany at this time. I haven't really been following the situation in Germany closely, but I'd be kind of surprised if their response was dramatically different from the US or a number of European countries (where the mortality rate is significantly higher, than even the US/S.Korea). Anyone have any theories as to why Germany is seeing so many fewer people die to this point? Statistical anomaly (ie luck)? Inaccurate data? Something else?
If that is the correct death rate. Others more qualified than you are saying it has been as high as 12% now settling at 10% but always changing.
03-23-2020 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerXanadu
At least the Chinese wet markets are banned permanently now.

BTW, the virus didn't come from eating bats. The virus moved from bats to some other animal, and from there to humans (probably at the market).

Bats have a soup of coronaviruses, constantly mutating. Only seven coronaviruses are infectious to humans.

Here's an interesting article:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0210144854.htm



They are/were eating bats as seen in this video
Min 14.40 u can clearly see a huge pile of bats being chopped up on wet markets. Also you could be right it could be cross contamination or from eating pure bats. I don't know wtf they are doing. They could be making medicine from it feed it to dogs or eat themselves...lord knows

Last edited by washoe; 03-23-2020 at 07:25 PM.
03-23-2020 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
That seems like a pretty definitive statement for a situation which is highly dependent on specific conditions and is also continually evolving. Do you have any reliable source for this figure? I am actually curious and would like to look more into it.



I don't think you can infer that. Italy has been in virtual nation-wide "lockdown" for two weeks and their numbers for daily new cases don't appear to have peaked. Also, it appears that the epidemic peaked in S. Korea almost three weeks ago with no wholesale "lockdown" implemented.

There definitely seems to be a need for localized "lockdowns" where circumstances merit it.



No, because of what I mentioned above. And, your bigoted comments set aside, the situation, both as a result of the spread of this virus, and also as a result of unique state laws, is not remotely the same. An appropriate and/or legal response in NY is not necessarily an appropriate and/or legal response in WY. I believe it is clear some measure of caution... be that "social distancing" or reductions of large gatherings, are appropriate no matter where you are in the US. But government-enforced "complete lockdown" everywhere? How exactly is that supposed to work in the context of a free society which has 325MM people in it?
YOU DON'T GET IT. YOU ARE THE PROBLEM. I am bigoted toward your simple mindedness.
03-23-2020 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
How exactly is that supposed to work in the context of a free society which has 325MM people in it?
Dimwit, society is no longer free. Your rights are now curtailed and just you wait for more restriction with the idiotic views you have. Tell everybody now how free society is you clown. You are just another selfish, self serving narcissistic moron that wants to talk about your individual rights when the entire planet around you is in a Defcon 5 nuclear meltdown.

You can add insult to injury now and explain to everyone what devastating impact a full lockdown will have on the economy and why we should not go full lockdown and how harmful this will be to the economyCoronavirus has caused the postponement of the WSOP 2020! (Coronavirus quarantine thread)
03-23-2020 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
The Olympics posponed. Pretty sure the WSOP will be moved to the fall.
Or not lol...
03-23-2020 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
according to this...



https://lasvegascalendars.com/las-ve...ate=2020-11-30



... there don't appear to be any big conventions scheduled at the Rio between 8/1 - 11/30 other than Star Trek at the beginning of August. I don't know if this is accurate, or if there are simply lots of smaller things already scheduled. Finding a spot for a 3-week event, never mind the usual 6 weeks will be the challenge if they try to do it in the fall.
This will be in the height of the complacency period when the death tolls will be at their highest level.

Hey I'm good, let's go play ring events.

The level of intellect here is zero, it is frightening.
03-23-2020 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarkington
Would not it make sense to limit flights and transport out of New York instead of locking everyone down in every part of the country...there’s tons of cases and a lot of people are going to leave nyc and take it somewhere else...the lockdown strategy is not well thought out. It’s just play it by ear destroy the economy everywhere..

There was no planning behind the shut everything down...USA just copycatted china and Italy...when the airports are open what’s the point...it’s reckless government gone wild...no planning at all...no cost benefit analysis do something no one considered ever trying...
It's the only way to literally STOP the proliferation of the virus. I do not think the US and its citizens can intelligently MANAGE our way to a point where the virus stops proliferating. I have zero faith in this regard.
03-23-2020 , 07:24 PM
My answer to the OP is NFW. And any person that flies to Vegas in an airplane through airport terminals to play ring events in rooms and buildings packed with 1000's of people deserves their fate.

The premise of this thread is ridiculous to begin with IMO.
03-23-2020 , 07:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pennypusher
Many factors ofc. But mainly/mostly due to our good healthcare system, which has no shortages so far. Also because of the lower average age of people who were infected/tested in Germany (compared to Italy, for example).
But we are still early in it, not yet sure that we are at least flattening the curve with our measures yet. But on Wednesday, we will get more meaningfull numbers.

Will be a super tough balancing act worldwide for all of our politicians and scientists, when to re-open what, or close back down etc etc. Don't wanna be in their spot now.
It will be an interesting case study. I don't think I buy the "overall healthcare system" explanation though. The US system has not been overly stressed "yet". The fear is what may happen in the near future.
03-23-2020 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
If that is the correct death rate. Others more qualified than you are saying it has been as high as 12% now settling at 10% but always changing.
Link plz.I'm really curious...

You're right, we all will have to see where we are in 2-3 weeks, but it sounds like its already spreading slightly slower than before in germany. Now we closed most businesses today, only allow 2 people together in public (aside of families) etc. for 2 weeks.

Last edited by pennypusher; 03-23-2020 at 07:35 PM.
03-23-2020 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
YOU DON'T GET IT. YOU ARE THE PROBLEM. I am bigoted toward your simple mindedness.
Well, I may be YOUR problem. I can live with that.
03-23-2020 , 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
This will be in the height of the complacency period when the death tolls will be at their highest level.

Hey I'm good, let's go play ring events.

The level of intellect here is zero, it is frightening.
Not sure why you're frightened. The stupidity of "other" people is a fact of life for people like you... one which I'm sure you have become accustomed to, and will continue to find a way to live with in the future. Fear not.
03-23-2020 , 07:54 PM


03-23-2020 , 08:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
Well, I may be YOUR problem. I can live with that.
Honestly you are irritating me too. Can you just go play somewhere while adult folks talk?
03-23-2020 , 08:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerXanadu
Doubtful that $1B+ invested in develop of medicine and a vaccine for SARS-1 would have sped the process for the current SARS-COV-2. Here's why:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-so-hard-kill/

Investing in lab equipment and personnel that would be prepared to jump start the process of developing medicine and a vaccine for a novel virus when an outbreak occurs would help, but it's not a panacea against a pandemic.
Its probably no pancea for a panfemic. But I believe the experts saying they are lagging behind 16 years due to no funding and lack of interest and trials of population. The risk/reward ratio was unforeseeable.
They have to run tests now that usually take years.
I am guessing and I don't understand nearly as much about this stuff, that they are looking at a very big puzzle now. And you know with puzzles and science the more time you have in advance the faster is the solution.
In your article they say they have to constantly keep up with the viruses which they couldn't.
03-23-2020 , 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarkington
I would put more of the fault on China for not closing wild animal markets after SARS. SARS had a horrible impact in Asia and China failed to take any steps to shut down this markets...hence covid...eating bats is dangerous as bats might be the source of both diseases

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...s-2020-1%3famp
I was also blaming China for the bat problem.
But one of the last viruses the MERS came from the middle east in camels and one from pigs. I mean we eat pigs and cows too.
Not saying these wet markets should not be shut.

I'm more baffled by the fact that they put the center of disease control in wuhan, not in beejing after the first sars outbreak.
03-23-2020 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
If that is the correct death rate. Others more qualified than you are saying it has been as high as 12% now settling at 10% but always changing.
Who is saying that? The only study I have seen in a semi-controlled environment where the entire population is actually tested estimated the death rate at 0.3%
03-23-2020 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starks Pizzeria
Honestly you are irritating me too. Can you just go play somewhere while adult folks talk?
Yeah, articulate and measured responses are so irritating....
03-23-2020 , 10:26 PM
Here are the longform versions of current U.S. House & Senate legislative proposals to address the ongoing pandemic.

Senate Bill 3548 - Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act)

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-...bill/3548/text
---

House of Representatives Democrats - Take Responsibility for Workers and Families Act

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...r-Workers.html
03-23-2020 , 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
Not sure why you're frightened. The stupidity of "other" people is a fact of life for people like you... one which I'm sure you have become accustomed to, and will continue to find a way to live with in the future. Fear not.
Oprah's pastor just said we are going to get through this and fear not.

Thank you.
03-23-2020 , 11:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK
Who is saying that? The only study I have seen in a semi-controlled environment where the entire population is actually tested estimated the death rate at 0.3%
Check out Alex Lightman, Futurist. He is on all social. I like his numbers and he is actively crunching all current numbers.
03-24-2020 , 02:41 AM
LOOOL. Remember when people kept on talking about "poker is dying"? Well... #COVID-19...
03-24-2020 , 02:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
If that is the correct death rate. Others more qualified than you are saying it has been as high as 12% now settling at 10% but always changing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
Check out Alex Lightman, Futurist. He is on all social. I like his numbers and he is actively crunching all current numbers.
You've already gone a bit overboard in several of your posts in this thread but these latest ones are too much. Stop spreading this sensationalist BS about a 10-12% death rate. Are you really that dense? You "like Alex Lightman's numbers because he's actively crunching all current numbers", hey? Unfortunately, he's using CLOSED case fatality numbers that aren't even close to painting an accurate picture - of course death rate in closed cases is going to be substantially higher than it is for total confirmed cases - deaths are over-represented in closed cases, as these numbers only track two possible outcomes: 100% recovery or death. CFR and IFR numbers provide a much more accurate death rate - and even with case fatality rate (CFR), the percentage tends to skew a bit on the high-side during the first weeks of an outbreak before somewhat normalizing over time. As longtime poster Chuck Bass mentioned in his fantastic summary over in the OOT thread, here is probably the best current information in regards to an actual death rate worldwide - and it discusses both CFR AND IFR, not just confirmed cases that are closed. And yes, I believe that the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford is more qualified than either of us on this topic. (SPOILER: they found the current Infection Fatality Rate or IFR to likely be pretty pretty close to 1% - and expect it to drop even lower as time goes on - potentially to even 0.2%!!!):

https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19...atality-rates/

For a more regional breakdown that's specifically focused on recent numbers in North America, here is a detailed breakdown of Hospitalization, ICU admission, and case-fatality for reported cases by age group across the US from Feb 12 - Mar 16, which basically breaks down the first 2,500 or so official cases nationwide:



CFR = 1.8-3.4% across all ages, for those under 54 it drops below 1%

For Canadians such as myself, here are the latest numbers from earlier today:



Again, hovering around a 1-1.5% case fatality rate - and in my home province of Alberta, our 300+ confirmed cases resulting in one death are probably some of the most accurate province/state case numbers in all of North America considering we have already tested over 30,000 residents. Of course, with double-digit patients currently in hospital and 8-12 needing intensive care, the 1/301 death ratio will unfortunately rise - but again, GTFO with your 10-12% global fatality rate fear-mongering bullshit. While many people need to take what is going on much more seriously, your misinformation combined with a smug, arrogant attitude (Dunning-Kruger overload) has the potential to be harmful for those who mistake your misguided confidence for actual knowledge.

Last edited by EdmontonRounder; 03-24-2020 at 03:09 AM.
03-24-2020 , 03:10 AM
Maybe Pastor Tony Spell should be sent around the country to help with healing. Apparently it's cool to send out 26 buses to pick up people for his 1,825 person church service, because:

Quote:
Spell says if anyone in his congregation contracts covid-19 he will heal them through God.

“I’m going to address that by laying hands on them and praying for them and depending on God to heal their body,” Spell said.
https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/l...d-19-outbreak/
03-24-2020 , 04:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdmontonRounder
Unfortunately, he's using CLOSED case fatality numbers that aren't even close to painting an accurate picture - of course death rate in closed cases is going to be substantially higher than it is for total confirmed cases - deaths are over-represented in closed cases, as these numbers only track two possible outcomes: 100% recovery or death. CFR and IFR numbers provide a much more accurate death rate - and even with case fatality rate (CFR), the percentage tends to skew a bit on the high-side during the first weeks of an outbreak before somewhat normalizing over time.
Just wanted to expand on this a little bit more - In Alberta, we currently have one death and three patients who are officially classified as 100% recovered. So as of this morning, 1 out of the 4 total closed cases is a death, which means if I wanted to spread fear (or generate clicks), I could state that the current death rate when looking at all closed COVID-19 cases in the province is 25%. Of course, case fatality rate and infection fatality rate are very significant - although the case fatality rate (CFR) can be tough to accurately calculate as it is highly dependent on testing capabilities and a wide range of case-specific variables. Using the University of Oxford data from my previous post, when considering countries like Italy that currently have a CFR of almost 10%, it is important to remember that thousands of currently infected citizens with symptoms that don't require hospitalization aren't even counted as "confirmed cases" due to system overload - while they likely would be counted as confirmed cases (and therefore help to lower CFR) in countries under less stress. Furthermore, 88% of patients in Italy (as of March 20th) who died had at least one pre-morbidity (and often two or three). In fact, on March 17th, only 3/355 fatalities (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions - 76% had high blood pressure, 36% had diabetes, and 33% had heart disease, and average age was 79.5.

Last edited by EdmontonRounder; 03-24-2020 at 04:34 AM.

      
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