Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
If that is the correct death rate. Others more qualified than you are saying it has been as high as 12% now settling at 10% but always changing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MofoAgro
Check out Alex Lightman, Futurist. He is on all social. I like his numbers and he is actively crunching all current numbers.
You've already gone a bit overboard in several of your posts in this thread but these latest ones are too much. Stop spreading this sensationalist BS about a 10-12% death rate. Are you really that dense? You "like Alex Lightman's numbers because he's actively crunching all current numbers", hey? Unfortunately, he's using CLOSED case fatality numbers that aren't even close to painting an accurate picture - of course death rate in closed cases is going to be substantially higher than it is for total confirmed cases - deaths are over-represented in closed cases, as these numbers only track two possible outcomes: 100% recovery or death. CFR and IFR numbers provide a much more accurate death rate - and even with case fatality rate (CFR), the percentage tends to skew a bit on the high-side during the first weeks of an outbreak before somewhat normalizing over time. As longtime poster Chuck Bass mentioned in his fantastic summary over in the OOT thread, here is probably the best current information in regards to an actual death rate worldwide - and it discusses both CFR AND IFR, not just confirmed cases that are closed. And yes, I believe that the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford is more qualified than either of us on this topic. (SPOILER: they found the current Infection Fatality Rate or IFR to likely be pretty pretty close to 1% - and expect it to drop even lower as time goes on - potentially to even 0.2%!!!):
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19...atality-rates/
For a more regional breakdown that's specifically focused on recent numbers in North America, here is a detailed breakdown of Hospitalization, ICU admission, and case-fatality for reported cases by age group across the US from Feb 12 - Mar 16, which basically breaks down the first 2,500 or so official cases nationwide:
CFR = 1.8-3.4% across all ages, for those under 54 it drops below 1%
For Canadians such as myself, here are the latest numbers from earlier today:
Again, hovering around a 1-1.5% case fatality rate - and in my home province of Alberta, our 300+ confirmed cases resulting in one death are probably some of the most accurate province/state case numbers in all of North America considering we have already tested over 30,000 residents. Of course, with double-digit patients currently in hospital and 8-12 needing intensive care, the 1/301 death ratio will unfortunately rise - but again, GTFO with your 10-12% global fatality rate fear-mongering bullshit. While many people need to take what is going on much more seriously, your misinformation combined with a smug, arrogant attitude (Dunning-Kruger overload) has the potential to be harmful for those who mistake your misguided confidence for actual knowledge.
Last edited by EdmontonRounder; 03-24-2020 at 03:09 AM.