But in reality, does the Lebanon govt have any power over Hezbollah? It's a convenient out for them but it's also probably true.
Israel is going to have to do a lot of the heavy lifting in the south with some strikes in the city but don't think they can go carpet bombing Beirut.

Isreal would only find some excuse to kill more Palestinians, as it has done for decades - “ child soldiers” anyone?

Yeah. They might not have to even be that incompetent. Real life is crazy and chaotic. Maybe Israel got warnings. They probably get warnings all the time. How detailed were the warnings?

Maybe Hamas has tried something like this 75 times and been thwarted 74 times.

Yes, Palestinians are heavily surveilled and whatever. Look at all the weapons, murders, drugs, booze, gang activity etc. that goes on in US prisons. Those people live in cells, don't even have control over what clothes they wear or when or what they eat, but they figure out a way.

It's because the guards help them.

Not alone which is why we should help

.
the U.S. is acting very high and mighty towards Israel

from the link: "Key findings - more than 70,000 Afghan and Pakistani civilians are estimated to have died as a result of the war. The U.S. Military in 2017 relaxed its rules of engagement for airstrikes in Afghanistan, which resulted in a massive increase in civilian casualties"


https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/...n%20casualties.


.

wrt "the patriarchy", this happened in Turin university (an imam when discussing the "righteous jihad" with occupying students).

Notice the fishnet separating women from men, and the hairs covered (those aren't muslim women, rather protesting students)

oh you're going 9/11 is an inside job route. Nice niiiiiiice

This site is a gem

Despite the degree of surveillance, they're discovering they knew almost nothing about the extent of what was over there, how much of it there was, where it was, etc. I think people who advance these conspiracies watch too many movies...

The combination of how many guys (4000), how many entry points break, the holiday (and how many go home for it), and the amount of soldiers being used at other areas is why Oct 7th happened. Also the degree of secrecy, to the point that almost nobody outside of Gaza even knew the date. There's also YEARS of intelligence being gathered by Hamas to plan this thing (intelligence gathered while working on the Kibbutz). It's an operational failure that has been looked at extensively. But go post the rest of this conspiracy stuff in the conspiracy containment thread. Putting it here is embarrassing.

Israel definitely being exposed. Not nearly as elite as their reputation. Pre 10/7 Israeli intelligence was regarded as 2nd to none in electronic and on the ground intelligence.
Hamas can organize 4,000 fighters from multiple factions and execute a highly coordinated attack and no chatter comes out? Obviously Hamas also being underestimated but I think most people believed the narrative that something like that would never get past Israeli intelligence.
Bad news for Bibi and his guys. That's supposed to be their thing I thought.

I read that without Israel knowing, Hamas switched to Chinese made communication devices that Israel surveillance technology could not detect.

Also, It's a small country. The metro area I live in has more people than all of Israel. Almost no one lived in most of what we call Israel until 20th century technology made the desert livable.

This is Tel Aviv in 1909.



Much of their military is 19 year old conscripts or reserves. I mean it is a testament to Israeli ingenuity and will a bunch of refugees turned a barren desert into a thriving nation, repelling several major attacks from their numerically superior neighbors, but you still have to acknowledge there will be limitations.

Don't know how their enlisted military and environment relate to their intelligence gathering.
Pretty amazing opsec by 4,000 gazans to keep something quiet from the guys that made pegasus.
I'm sure it's a mix of both but I see a massive overhaul in mossad in the near future.

To this day I dont think Israel knows much about what is going on in the hundreds of miles of tunnels Hamas built under Gaza (with our tax dollars). I read even the hostage bodies they have been finding recently, in truth POWs are telling them where they are.

They clearly don't. Some of the videos of Israeli soldiers being killed, even in "cleared" areas, show that they are unable to find and destroy all of the tunnels.

There's a massive amount and they are well hidden.

Yes welcome to circa 2006.

Look how long it took for the US to get things settled down in Iraq and that was against adversaries mostly learning as they went. A lot of ex military but not the tunnel infrastructure or the focused training against one enemy like Hamas has trained for. And even then the US didn't turn the corner until making deals with the Sunni factions. Don't see a willing ally for Israel in Gaza.
Guess all they can do is lockdown the Egyptian border and hang on.

So they keep going and finding more tunnels. Literally go through every inch of ground and dig out every cavity under ground

Well they're losing troops doing that so I think they've mostly stopped although not sure. So far usa intelligence thinks they've gotten about 1/3 of the tunnels, I don't see it happening.

The invader only needs to succeed once.

Blocking Hamas for decades despite all the restraints it has already makes Mossad elite.

But people don’t give Mossad credit for its successes.

There will be internal reviews and probably some organizational reshuffling but massively overhauling Mossad would be an overreaction.

Like I’ve been saying for months, feed the Gazans and buy Intel from them.

Israel is doing this war on full stupid

Gosh it's almost as if it's difficult to stop guerilla fighters from moving across their own territory.

Is it possible for US intelligence to be right about that without knowing where the tunnels are?

Agreed.

Yes.

Or you could just use the tunnel xray machine the CIA had in Vietnam. We didn’t use it their either

Pretty big blunder. Dudes were learning to paraglide, what did they think? They were trying to develop their tourist industry?