***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed) - Page 101 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed)

View Poll Results: Presidential Prediction?

Biden wins a landslide

42 50.00%

Biden ekes it out

29 34.52%

Trump ekes it out

8 9.52%

Trump wins a landslide

5 5.95%

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11-05-2020 , 06:23 PM

#2501

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

GA and PA secretaries of state both scheduled to speak publicly very soon. But that likely means nothing more than an update on where they're at, which might provide nothing new since they're already uploading info as they go.

11-05-2020 , 06:24 PM

#2502

bundy5

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 8,407

If it is a run off race for the senate in January what is the bet that the republican vote will be restored by 2 or 3% of voters that would usually vote republican but voted against them because of Trump (assuming Biden wins)?

11-05-2020 , 06:25 PM

#2503

NuklearWinter

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,735

Biden down 90k votes in PA. By my math, I think he gains +80k in Philadelphia county which is at 82% reporting now with Biden leading 495k to 117k votes.

11-05-2020 , 06:25 PM

#2504

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

Quote:

Originally Posted by bundy5

How many votes left in Georgia to count?

No idea; I'd have the same sources as you. Can't really use the maps for that, as we get into these smaller numbers I find that just taking the % of total votes doesn't turn out to be especially accurate. Pretty much relying on on-air updates for those. Hopefully the secretary of state update will help.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bundy5

And don't forget voters that lean Democrat, but like to have a "check" on complete power by splitting congress. I think Dems will be hard pressed to win both. But I'm certainly no expert.

11-05-2020 , 06:30 PM

#2505

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

PA SoS thinks they may have enough info out tonight for a clearer picture of the winner. Says there are several hundred thousand votes to be counted; info can be found on their website for each county. Overwhelming majority will be counted by Friday as they've always said; feels they are ahead of that schedule.

Their counting dashboard is here:

https://www.votespa.com/About-Electi...Dashboard.aspx

11-05-2020 , 06:31 PM

#2506

tame_deuces

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 18,329

Quote:

Originally Posted by bundy5

In this political climate, discussing January is like making hypotheticals about space flight in the 4th millennium.

It's still uncertain who will be president, it's uncertain what will happen if Trump loses and how his movement (and it is his movement) will respond politically and what re-alignment (if it comes at all) will look like.

Still, I find it hard to believe that a fully focused GOP campaign machine going to bat in Georgie would fail to do well.

11-05-2020 , 06:32 PM

#2507

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,796

All the money to Georgia democrats. Let's make it happen.

11-05-2020 , 06:33 PM

#2508

LKJ

Smugly Contemptuous

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 93,732

11-05-2020 , 06:34 PM

#2509

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

PA voting dashboard says 326,348 mail-in votes left to count overall.

Election day reporting - 7 precincts (0.08%) not in.

Dashboard is pretty cool - you can see exactly how many mail-in votes remaining to be counted in each county.

11-05-2020 , 06:36 PM

#2510

itshotinvegas

banned

Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 7,899

Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

Fox hosts seem to have given up talking about how Trump could win. They seem to be trying to avoid that topic and keep talking about how their own analysts goofed calling AZ early and they don't seem to understand just what Trump's legal strategy is.

Is this the bargaining stage? Or still denial?

Watching the last two nights, I never got the impression they were hoping for a Trump win. That's not to say they were not charitable to righty perspectives about the election...so, unless something changed tonight, I'd say neither.They seemed surprised at Florida, but not giddy.

11-05-2020 , 06:36 PM

#2511

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,796

NBC just had a seemingly throwaway line after the PA Secretary of State conference that says PA officials think Biden will be ahead very soon.

Judging by numbers in past few hours, Biden likely will finish tonight ahead by ~2% in PA and end up with numbers similar to those of Michigan (which makes perfect sense)

11-05-2020 , 06:37 PM

#2512

Rebelp

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by NuklearWinter

Ahhhh, so that's what happened to joe6pack

The reaction at the end makes me think that the guy has had experience of children throwing a tantrum before.

11-05-2020 , 06:45 PM

#2513

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

Biden down 90,542 votes in PA, 326,348 mail-in left to count. Biden would need 63.9% of those votes; he's apparently been running at about 78% on the mail-ins so far.

To look at it another way, 78% of the remaining votes is 254,551, leaving 71,797 for Trump - swing of 182,754.

Of course there's no reason to believe they will necessarily come in at the high number of 78%, but there's a lot of room for it to be lower and still be enough to Biden to catch up.

11-05-2020 , 06:47 PM

#2514

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

Quote:

Originally Posted by synth_floyd

It seems like Trump is going to lose relatively gracefully. Besides him, his immediate circle and some crazy MAGA people, every mainstream Republican is backing Biden's apparent win as legitimate and not contesting the results. I guess it's an easy to swallow loss as they got their SCOTUS judge, they control the Senate and made gains in the house. It seems unlikely that Biden will get much done in the next 4 years. I hope I am wrong though.

I had the tiniest hope of this in spite of his history, until I had a look at his Twitter account today. Ugh. Maybe he will in the end, but it's not happening any time soon. Amusing to see how quickly Twitter is dropping warnings on his Tweets now, though.

11-05-2020 , 06:49 PM

#2515

NuklearWinter

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 2,735

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobo Fett

Nice, this is really useful. They show the breakdown of early voters by political party and democrats are roughly 70%. Conservatively that means Biden will earn 70% of the remaining ~325k votes.

Biden: +227.5k
Trump: +97.5k

Biden net gain: +130k

The math shows Biden will win PA by about 40k votes

11-05-2020 , 06:50 PM

#2516

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,909

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inso0

It only has to change one state, and as I've already said ITT, I personally received a mail-in ballot that I shouldn't have, and there would've been no way to catch me if I had turned it in.

lol. “No way to catch me.”

11-05-2020 , 06:53 PM

#2517

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 57,426

Trump scheduled to speak at 6:30 ET.

In other news, PA lead now down to 78.3 K.

11-05-2020 , 06:55 PM

#2518

JohnyCrash

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,537

Trump is stoking the fire a catastrophe in the making.

11-05-2020 , 06:55 PM

#2519

SereneTuna

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 187

Trump speaking in half an hour, apparently against the wishes of his advisors. This could be peak s**tshow moment.

11-05-2020 , 06:56 PM

#2520

GodgersWOAT

banned

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 3,524

11-05-2020 , 06:56 PM

#2521

Im Nacho Friend

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 765

Odds on Trump mentioning the words: Fraud, Rigged, Steal etc. ?

Oh and the good ol' "Fake News" will probably reappear.

11-05-2020 , 06:57 PM

#2522

markksman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,909

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inso0

Because the guy is clearly still on the voter list but I know he moved to Texas. The only way it would get caught is if someone literally went door to door verifying residency for every single voter on the list. Not happening.

Maybe some enterprising individual working for the election commission would catch on to the fact that he hasn't voted in the last X years but decided to cast a ballot in 2020. If they run some database queries maybe it becomes a smaller list to check, but I still don't have high hopes.

The real story here is 90% turnout in Milwaukee. That's absolutely bonkers.

As usual a dumb and meaningless point by HIV supported by INS0!

“What it every Democrat who moved out of state illegally cast a vote in a state where they no longer lived, while no republicans did it!”

This is not an actual problem. It is a conspiracy by two trump supporters itt that’s is almost as dumb as all the other ones.

I am sure you two are highly concerned that ballot accuracy is 100% for every American even when trump supporters were considering breaking the law in a manner that is limited and not really exploitable.

11-05-2020 , 06:58 PM

#2523

SereneTuna

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 187

Quote:

Originally Posted by Im Nacho Friend

Odds on Trump mentioning the words: Fraud, Rigged, Steal etc. ?

It would be frankly astonishing if he didn't use all three.

11-05-2020 , 07:00 PM

#2524

noon

banned

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 758

Trump: STOP THE COUNT!

11-05-2020 , 07:01 PM

#2525

synth_floyd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

LOL why is that doofus taking any **** from Lou Dobbs? Tell Lou Dobbs to **** off and if he thinks he's so good at running campaigns, he should quit his journalism job and become a campaign manager.

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