PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION: DONALD TRUMP VS. JOE BIDEN

Senate: Dems need a net +3 and the Presidency to gain a majority; +4 or more without the Presidency

House: GOP needs a net +21 to gain a majority

Useful link that offers an overview for how quickly these states are going to turn their results around: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/

We're getting a limited NYT needle this time:

Here’s when we start getting results throughout the night (all times ET):

6:00 p.m.

Kentucky (safe Trump), Indiana (safe Trump)

• Longshot Dem Senate pickup: Kentucky
• Potential Dem House pickup: IN-05

7:00 p.m.

Competitive Presidential states: Florida (toss-up), Georgia (toss-up)
Non-competitive Presidential states: Vermont (safe Biden), Alabama (safe Trump), Mississippi (safe Trump), Virginia (safe Biden), South Carolina (very likely Trump)

• Potential Dem Senate pickups: Georgia, Georgia special, South Carolina
• Likely GOP Senate pickup: Alabama
• Longshot Dem Senate pickup: Mississippi
• Potential Dem House pickups: VA-05, FL-15, GA-07
• Potential GOP House pickups: SC-01, VA-02, VA-07, FL-26

7:30 p.m.

Competitive Presidential states: North Carolina (toss-up), Ohio (toss-up)
Non-competitive Presidential state: West Virginia (safe Trump)

• Potential Dem Senate pickup: North Carolina
• Potential Dem House pickups: NC-02, NC-06, NC-08, NC-09, NC-11, OH-01

8:00 p.m.

Competitive Presidential states: Pennsylvania (lean Biden), Michigan (likely Biden), Minnesota (likely Biden), Maine (mostly safe Biden, but ME-02 is a toss-up)
Non-competitive Presidential states: Delaware (safe Biden), Massachusetts (safe Biden), Maryland (safe Biden), Connecticut (safe Biden), New Jersey (safe Biden), Illinois (safe Biden), Rhode Island (safe Biden), Kansas (safe Trump), Missouri (safe Trump), D.C. (safe Biden)

• Potential Dem Senate pickup: Maine
• Potential GOP Senate pickup: Michigan
• Potential Dem House pickups: NJ-02, IL-13, MO-02, MN-01, MI-03, MI-06, PA-01, PA-10,
• Potential GOP House pickups: NJ-07, IL-17, MN-07, MI-08, MI-11, PA-08

8:30 p.m.

Arkansas (safe Trump)

• Potential Dem House pickup: AR-02

9:00 p.m.

Competitive Presidential states: Wisconsin (lean Biden), Arizona (toss-up), Texas (lean Trump), Nebraska (safe Trump statewide, but NE-02 is competitive)
Non-competitive Presidential states: Wyoming (safe Trump), Oklahoma (safe Trump), Tennessee (safe Trump), South Dakota (safe Trump), New York (safe Biden), Colorado (safe Biden), New Mexico (safe Biden)

• Likely Dem Senate pickups: Colorado, Arizona
• Longshot Dem Senate pickup: Texas
• Potential Dem House pickups: CO-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-24, NE-02, AZ-06, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-31
• Potential GOP House pickups: OK-05, NY-11, NY-22, NM-02, WI-03, AZ-01

10:00 p.m.

Competitive Presidential states: Iowa (lean Trump), Nevada (lean Biden)
Non-competitive Presidential states: Idaho (safe Trump), Utah (safe Trump), Montana (very likely Trump)

• Potential Dem Senate pickup: Montana
• Potential Dem House pickups: MT-At Large
• Potential GOP House pickups: IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, UT-04, NV-03

11:00 p.m.

North Dakota (safe Trump), Oregon (safe Biden), California (safe Biden), Washington (safe Biden)

• Potential Dem House pickups: CA-25, CA-50, WA-03
• Potential GOP House pickups: OR-04, CA-21, CA-48

12:00 a.m.

Alaska (likely Trump)

• Longshot Dem Senate pickup
• Potential Dem House pickup: AK-At Large

1:00 a.m.

Hawaii (safe Biden)

Let's do this.

What constitutes a landslide in today's partisan politics?

In 2008, Obama beat McCain 365 EC to 173 EC for a net difference of 192 electoral votes, but McCain still won like 22 states out of 50.

Wanna set a landslide at a net difference of 200 electoral votes or more? That means Biden would need to hit 369+ electoral votes.

In the event that Biden looks like a lock or close to it by the end of tomorrow night -- can anyone shill me some funny live streams of trump supporters likely to lose their minds? Preferably ones who think Trump is a stone lock right now. I want to see some truly unhinged ****; fox news might not be good enough for me.

(Not trying to put the jinx on here by the way. I'm not saying Biden is definitely going to steamroll, only that if he does, I want to be prepared.)

I'd call that Obama win a landslide. Something like a Reagan '84 map simply isn't possible right now; the parties have a bare minimum number of states 100% in the bag no matter who they run as the candidate or how poorly that candidate's campaign is run.

I don't think a difference of 200 is probably necessary to get there.

So will the election only get called tomorrow if there's a landslide basically? I'm in the UK, trying to figure out if I should buy a crate of beer for an all nighter.

I think you would be better off going to bed early and waking up around 3-4am London time. That would put it around 10-11 pm Eastern

Yep. In 2016, nothing noteworthy happened and everyone assumed Hillary was cruising until at least 7:30 eastern or so.

Meh I'm a night owl, can probably stop up if it will get spicy at 3AM. The beauty of being told that you're being made redundant in two months time is that you can breeze through the rest of the job with less worry about, y'now, sleep and being a responsible adult.

Florida and Georgia are expected to count quickly, and if they go Biden then most of the drama will be gone very quickly (though I'm not sure how much longer it would be before an official call was made). The direction those states take has significant control over how long we'll have to track this to get to a result.

Where is the ‘Trump wins by cheating’ option?

In an effort to understand the election results as they come in, I pulled together a couple sets of data:

1. Battleground state polling data sorted by the pollster.
2. 2016 battleground/key state results by time and precincts reporting until a state was called.

I think using this information could give us insight very early in the evening on which direction the election is heading in.


Conventional Polling vs. Outlier Polling
There have been two general types of polling leading up to Election Day which I’m calling conventional polling and outlier polling.

Conventional polling has Joe Biden winning nearly every battleground state and winning the Electoral College, often with over 350 EC votes. About 75% of battleground state polling falls into this classification.

Here are polling numbers from the New York Times/Siena, Emerson, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, CBS News, and Reuters.

Similar polling numbers could be found from ABC News/Washington Post, NBC/Maris, The Hill, CNN, and Fox News.

New York Times/Siena
Florida: Biden +3
North Carolina: Biden +3
Ohio: Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
Michigan: Biden +8
Wisconsin: Biden +11
Minnesota: Biden +9
Iowa: Biden +3
Georgia: tie
Arizona: Biden +6
Nevada: Biden +6

Emerson
Florida: Biden +6
North Carolina: tie
Ohio: Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +4
Michigan: Biden +7
Wisconsin: Biden +8
Minnesota:
Iowa: Trump +1
Georgia: Trump +1
Arizona: Biden +2
Nevada: Biden +2

Quinnipiac
Florida: Biden +5
North Carolina:
Ohio: Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Biden +7
Michigan:
Wisconsin:
Minnesota:
Iowa: Trump +1
Georgia: Biden +7
Arizona:
Nevada:

Monmouth
Florida: Biden +6
North Carolina: Biden +4
Ohio:
Pennsylvania: Biden +7
Michigan:
Wisconsin:
Minnesota:
Iowa: Biden +3
Georgia: Biden +4
Arizona: Biden +4
Nevada:

CBS News
Florida: Biden +2
North Carolina: Biden +4
Ohio: tie
Pennsylvania:
Michigan: Biden +6
Wisconsin: Biden +5
Minnesota: Biden +9
Iowa: tie
Georgia: tie
Arizona: Biden +3
Nevada: Biden +6

Reuters
Florida: Biden +4
North Carolina: Biden +1
Ohio:
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
Michigan: Biden +10
Wisconsin: Biden +10
Minnesota:
Iowa:
Georgia:
Arizona: Biden +2
Nevada:


However, outlier battleground state polling is showing a much closer race. Those polls put Trump ahead in enough battleground states to win the Electoral College with an EC vote total less than he had in 2016 and probably fewer than 300.

Trafalgar Group, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna are the four outlier polling firms showing this tighter race. Here are their polling numbers.

Trafalgar Group
Florida: Trump +3
North Carolina: Trump +2
Ohio: Trump +5
Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Michigan: Trump +2
Wisconsin: Biden +1
Minnesota: Biden +3
Iowa:
Georgia:
Arizona: Trump +3
Nevada: Biden +2

Insider Advantage
Florida:
North Carolina: Trump +4
Ohio:
Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Michigan: Biden +2
Wisconsin:
Minnesota:
Iowa: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +2
Arizona:
Nevada:

Rasmussen
Florida: Biden +1
North Carolina: Trump +1
Ohio: Trump +4
Pennsylvania: Biden +3
Michigan:
Wisconsin:
Minnesota:
Iowa:
Georgia:
Arizona: Trump +4
Nevada: Biden +1

Susquehanna
Florida: Trump +1
North Carolina: Biden +2
Ohio:
Pennsylvania: Trump +1
Michigan:
Wisconsin: Biden +3
Minnesota:
Iowa:
Georgia:
Arizona: Trump +1
Nevada:


I don’t think it will take long on Election Night to see which of these two polling groups is right (or if they’re both wrong). With Virginia and most of Florida polls closing at 7pm EST and North Carolina and Ohio closing at 7:30pm, we should have lots of data by 9pm. Florida is supposed to have about 8.7 million early vote results released shortly after polls closed. North Carolina has about 4.5 million early votes and Ohio has 2.4 million.

Because of the large amount of early voting compared to four years ago, it will be tricky to compare this year’s count to 2016. But, I put together a timeline of several states. I’m sure some improvised comparisons will be useful. I used CNN’s numbers from their Election Night broadcast.


2016 Battleground/Key State Results (all times EST)

Florida
7:30(43% reporting): Trump 1,979,182 49.1%; Clinton 1,937,541 48.1%; +41,641 (+1.0%)
7:45(57% reporting): Trump 2,85,512 55.0% Clinton 2,524,391, 47.0% +161,121 (+3.0%)
8:00(75% reporting): Trump 3,356,994 47.8% Clinton 3,496,090 49.4% -139,096 (-1.6%)
8:15(86% reporting): Trump 3,929859 48.5% Clinton 3,929,119 48.5% +740 (+0.0%)
8:30(91% reporting): Trump 4,180,922 48.9% Clinton 4,112,883 48.1% +68,039 (+0.8%)
8:45(91% reporting): Trump 4,302,922 49.1% Clinton 4,191,989 47.8% +110,933 (+1.3%)
9:00(91% reporting): Trump 4,358,676 49.2% Clinton 4,219,160 47.7% +139,516 (+1.5%)
9:15(93% reporting): Trump 4,449,065 49.2% Clinton 4,317,254 47.7% +131,811 (+1.5%)
9:30(94% reporting): Trump 4,512,920 49.2% Clinton 4,371,892 47.7% +141,028 (+1.5%)
9:45(95% reporting): Trump 4,532,255 49.0% Clinton 4,421,140 47.8% +111,115 (+1.2%)
10:00(95% reporting): Trump 4,524,384 49.1% Clinton 4,427,330 47.8% +97,054 (+1.3%)
10:15(95% reporting): Trump 4,573,128 49.2% Clinton 4,437,832 47.7% +135,296 (+1.5%)
10:30(95% reporting): Trump 4,574,294 49.2% Clinton 4,438,644 47.7% +135,650 (+1.5%)
10:45(95% reporting): Trump 4,575,183 49.2% Clinton 4,441,150 47.7% +134,033 (+1.5%)
11:00(95% reporting): Trump 4,575,183 49.2% Clinton 4,441,150 47.7% +134,033 (+1.5%)
11:15(96% reporting): Trump 4,577,375 49.1% Clinton 4,445,680 47.7% +131,695 (+1.4%)
11:30(96% reporting): Trump 4,579,106 49.1% Clinton 4,447,646 47.7% +131,460 (+1.4%)

Florida called for Trump.


Virginia
7:30(5% reporting): Trump105,996 51.1% Clinton 90,923 43.8% +15,073 (+7.3%)
7:45(12% reporting): Trump 258,703 54.0% Clinton 196,952 41.1% +61,751 (+12.9%)
8:00(25% reporting): Trump 532,289 54.0% Clinton 405,142 41.0%+127,147 (+13.0%)
8:15(32% reporting): Trump 675,058 53.0% Clinton 549,253 43.0% +125,805 (+10.0%)
8:30(46% reporting): Trump 949,417 51.6% Clinton 802,051 43.6% +147,365 (+8.0%)
8:45(57% reporting): Trump1,153,846 50.2% Clinton 1,030,371 44.9% +123,475 (+5.3%)
9:00(66% reporting): Trump 1,306,793 49.7% Clinton 1,189,139 45.3% +117,654 (+4.4%)
9:15(72% reporting): Trump 1,407,476 48.8%Clinton 1,329,526 46.1% +77,950 (+2.7%)
9:30(77% reporting): Trump 1,481,362 48.1% Clinton 1,438,758 46.8% +42,604 (+1.3%)
9:45(80% reporting): Trump 1,560,538 47.6% Clinton 1,507,415 47.3% +10,123 (+0.3%)
10:00(82% reporting): Trump 1,560,737 47.3% Clinton 1,567,404 47.5% -6,667 (-0.2%)
10:15(84% reporting): Trump1,579,850 47.1% Clinton 1,601,560 47.8% -21,710 (-0.7%)
10:30(87% reporting): Trump 1,626,623 46.7% Clinton 1,682,008 48.2% -55,385 (-1.5%)
10:45(87% reporting): Trump1,642 588 46.6% Clinton 1,699,301 48.2% -56,713 (-1.6%)

Virginia called for Clinton.


North Carolina
7:45(10% reporting): Trump 255,715 54.5% Clinton 202,905 43.3% +52,810 (+11.2%)
8:00(41% reporting): Trump 876,787 45.2% Clinton 1,017,396 52.4% -140,609 (-7.2%)
8:15(53% reporting): Trump 1,142,810 45.8% Clinton 1,293,648 51.8% -150,838 (-6.0%)
8:30(57% reporting): Trump 1,238,042 46.5% Clinton 1,361,711 51.1% -123,669 (-4.6%)
8:45(61% reporting): Trump 1,358,402 47.6% Clinton 1,426,304 49.9% -67,902 (-2.3%)
9:00(68% reporting): Trump 1,554,916 48.7% Clinton 1,560,260 48.8% -5,344 (-0.1%)
9:15(71% reporting): Trump 1,634,075 49.1% Clinton 1,611,728 48.4+22,347 (+0.7%)
9:30(76% reporting): Trump1,760,375 49.5% Clinton 1,704,450 47.9% +55,925 (+1.6%)
9:45(77% reporting): Trump 1,813,162 49.9% Clinton 1,729,302 47.5 +83,860 (+2.4%)
10:00(81% reporting): Trump 1,915,388 50.2% Clinton 1,800,800 47.2% +114,588 (+3.0%)
10:15(83% reporting): Trump 1,971,034 50.5% Clinton 1,832,315 46.9% +139,719 (+3.6%)
10:30(85% reporting): Trump 2,005,824 50.5% Clinton 1,864,831 46.9% +140,993 (+3.6%)
10:45(90% reporting): Trump 2,159,298 50.8% Clinton 1,976,699 46.5% +182,599 (+4.3%)
11:00(92% reporting): Trump 2,195,320 51.0% Clinton 1,994,972 46.3% +200,348 (+4.7%)
11:15(93% reporting): Trump 2,239,938 51.2% Clinton 2,018,711 46.1% +221,227 (+5.1%)

North Carolina called for Trump.


Ohio
8:00(16% reporting): Trump 411,261 45.2% Clinton 465,589 51.1% -54,328 (-5.9%)
8:15(30% reporting): Trump 74,401 44.5% Clinton 867,145 51.9% -122,744 (-7.4%)
8:30(31% reporting): Trump 800,152 45.4% Clinton 899,592 51.0% -99,440 (-5.6%)
8:45(34% reporting): Trump897,616 46.9% Clinton 945,399 49.4% -47,783 (-2.5%)
9:00(37% reporting): Trump 1,010,851 48.1% Clinton 1,009,631 48.0% +1,220 (+0.1%)
9:15(48% reporting): Trump 1,382,580 51.4% Clinton 1,194,800 44.5% +187,780 (+6.9%)
9:30(53% reporting): Trump 1,553,804 51.8% Clinton 1,318,596 44.0% +235,208 (+7.8%)
9:45(61% reporting): Trump 1,828,990 52.9% Clinton 1,476,323 42.7% +352,667 (+10.2%)
10:00(67% reporting): Trump 2,011,598 53.0% Clinton 1,616,789 42.6% +394,809 (+10.4%)
10:15(74% reporting): Trump 2,225,451 53.4% Clinton 1,763,958 42.3% +461,493 (+11.1%)
10:30(78% reporting): Trump 482,893 53.3% Clinton 1,853,580 42.3% +482,893 (+11.0%)

Ohio called for Trump.


Pennsylvania
9:45(25% reporting): Trump 589,577 39.2% Clinton 866,062 57.6% -276,485 (-18.4%)
10:00(34% reporting): Trump 854,022 42.2% Clinton 1,104,685 54.6% -250,663 (-12.4%)
10:15(41% reporting): Trump 1,082,922 44.0 Clinton 1,295,469 52.6% -212,547 (-8.6%)
10:30(51% reporting): Trump 1,391,999 45.6% Clinton 1,559,352 51.0% -167,353 (-5.4%)
10:45(66% reporting): Trump 1,853,051 47.0% Clinton 1,950,991 49.5% -97,940 (-2.5%)
11:00(68% reporting): Trump 1,935,222 47.4% Clinton 2,003,272 49.1% -68,050 (-1.7%)
11:15(74% reporting): Trump 2,078,948 47.1% Clinton 2,179,506 49.4% -100,558 (-2.3%)
11:30(81% reporting): Trump 2,285,805 47.5% Clinton 2,359,747 49.0% -73,942 (-1.5%)
11:45(82% reporting): Trump 2,347,972 47.6% Clinton 2,405,942 48.8% +2,348 (+1.2%)
12:00(86% reporting): Trump 2,468,298 47.9% Clinton 2,499,998 48.5% -31,700 (-0.6%)
12:15(90% reporting): Trump 2,588,237 48.3% Clinton 2,577,891 48.1% +10,346 (+0.2%)
12:30(92% reporting): Trump 2,655,960 48.2% Clinton 2,653,551 48.2% +2,409 (+0.0%)
12:45(95% reporting): Trump 2,753,795 48.5% Clinton 2,718,756 47.9% +35,039 (+0.6%)
1:00(96% reporting): Trump 2,777,072 48.6% Clinton 2,728,377 47.8% +48,695 (+0.8%)
1:15(97% reporting): Trump 2,818,793 48.7% Clinton 2,762,968 47.7% +55,825 (+1.0%)
1:30(97% reporting): Trump 2,823,741 48.7% Clinton 2,764,959 47.7% +58,782 (+1.0%)
1:45(97% reporting): Trump 2,880,534 48.9% Clinton 2,801,994 47.6% +77,450 (+1.3%)
2:00(97% reporting): Trump 2,881,135 48.9% Clinton 2,806,513 47.6% +74,622 (+1.3%)
2:15(97% reporting): Trump 2,896,728 48.9% Clinton 2,820,894 47.6% +75,018 (+1.3%)
2:30(97% reporting): Trump 2,900,785 48.9% Clinton 2,825,767 47.6% +75,018 (+1.3%)
2:45(97% reporting): Trump 2,900,785 48.9% Clinton 2,825,767 47.6% +75,018 (+1.3%)
3:00(97% reporting): Trump 2,900,785 48.9% Clinton 2,825,767 47.6% +75,018 (+1.3%)

Pennsylvania called for Trump.


Michigan
8:30(7% reporting): Trump144,168 43.9% Clinton 167,083 50.9% -22,915 (-7.0%)
8:45(9% reporting): Trump 209,929 45.1% Clinton 232,112 49.8% -22,183 (-4.7%)
9:00(10% reporting): Trump 234,850 46.3% Clinton 246,012 48.5% -11,162 (-2.2%)
9:15(15% reporting): Trump 363,145 48.7% Clinton 344,905 46.2% +18,240 (+2.5%)
9:30(17% reporting): Trump 414,536 49.1% Clinton 386,301 45.8% +28,235 (+3.3%)
9:45(20% reporting): Trump 500,744 49.5% Clinton 459,195 45.4% +41,549 (+4.1%)
10:00(24% reporting): Trump 588,660 49.5% Clinton 539,064 45.3% +49,596 (+4.2%)
10:15(30% reporting): Trump 736,252 49.9% Clinton 663,182 44.9% +73,070 (+5.0%)
10:30(33% reporting): Trump 794,371 48.6% Clinton 758,134 46.4% +36,237 (+2.2%)
10:45(39% reporting): Trump 949,015 48.9% Clinton 892,625 46.0% +56,390 (+2.9%)
11:00(48% reporting): Trump 1,151,045 48.0% Clinton 1,123,218 46.9% +27,827 (+1.1%)
11:15(54% reporting): Trump 1,303,961 48.6% Clinton 1,243,594 46.3% +60,367 (+2.3%)
11:30(58% reporting): Trump 1,387,653 47.9% Clinton 1,361,438 47.0% +26,215 (+0.9%)
11:45(60% reporting): Trump 1,448,682 48.1% Clinton 1,410,615 46.8% +38,067 (+1.3%)
12:00(64% reporting): Trump 1,551,221 48.2% Clinton 1,499,912 48.6% +51,309 (+1.6%)
12:15(70% reporting): Trump 1,674,746 47.8% Clinton 1,651,977 47.1% +22,769 (+0.7%)
12:30(74% reporting): Trump 1,766,634 47.8% Clinton 1,735,979 47.0% +30,665 (+0.8%)
12:45(75% reporting): Trump 1,808,320 48.0% Clinton 1,766,732 46.9% +41,588 (+1.1%)
1:00(77% reporting): Trump 1,857,584 48.2% Clinton 1,798,983 46.7% +58,601 (+1.5%)
1:15(81% reporting): Trump 1,946,627 48.3% Clinton 1,874,571 46.5 +72,056 (+1.8%)
1:30(82% reporting): Trump 1,975,345 48.3% Clinton 1,904,765 46.6% +70,580 (+1.7%)
1:45(85% reporting): Trump 2,045,740 48.3% Clinton 1,973,949 46.6% +71,791 (+1.7%)
2:00(87% reporting): Trump 2,092,552 48.3% Clinton 2,017,554 46.6% +64m887 (+1.7%)
2:15(88% reporting): Trump 2,127,490 48.4% Clinton 2,044,709 46.5% +82,781 (+1.9%)
2:30(89% reporting): Trump 2,131,073 48.1% Clinton 2,100,393 46.8% +59,182 (+1.3%)
2:45(90% reporting): Trump 2,155,289 48.0% Clinton 2,100,393 46.8% +54,896 (+1.2%)
3:00(91% reporting): Trump 2,195,893 48.1% Clinton 2,134,946 46.8% +60,947 (+1.3%)
3:15(92% reporting): Trump 2,206,152 47.9% Clinton 2,159,794 46.9% +46,358 (+1.0%)

Michigan not called on Election Day.


Wisconsin
9:30(12% reporting): Trump 165,056 44.1% Clinton 190,424 50.9% -25,368 (-6.8%)
9:45(21% reporting): Trump 330,181 50.8% Clinton 286,774 44.1% +43,407 (+6.7%)
10:00(28% reporting): Trump 430,499 50.4% Clinton 379,766 44.5% +50,733 (+5.9%)
10:15(40% reporting): Trump 595,842 48.0% Clinton 580,526 46.8% +15,316 (+1.2%)
10:30(45% reporting): Trump 677,744 49.0% Clinton 632,511 45.8% +45,233 (+3.2%)
10:45(56% reporting): Trump 845,952 49.0% Clinton 792,563 45.9% +53,389 (+3.1%)
11:00(57% reporting): Trump 860,888 49.0% Clinton 806,299 45.9% +54,589 (+3.1%)
11:15(61% reporting): Trump 926,145 48.9% Clinton 868,725 45.9% +57,420 (+3.0%)
11:30(67% reporting): Trump 1,016,795 49.1% Clinton 946,795 45.7% +70,000 (+3.4%)
11:45(71% reporting): Trump 1,084,188 49.2% Clinton 1,006,299 45.7% +77,889 (+3.5%)
12:00(75% reporting): Trump 1,141,133 49.2% Clinton 1,058,977 45.6% +82,156 (+3.6%)
12:15(78% reporting): Trump 1,196,170 49.3% Clinton 1,104,392 45.5 % +91,778 (+3.8%)
12:30(81% reporting): Trump 1,240,249 49.5% Clinton 1,149,974 45.6% +90,275 (+3.9%)
12:45(84% reporting): Trump 1,275,675 49.1% Clinton 1,187,573 45.7% +88,102 (+3.4%)
1:00(86% reporting): Trump 1,305,475 49.1% Clinton 1,212,256 45.6% +93,219 (+3.5%)
1:15(87% reporting): Trump 1,322,670 49.0% Clinton 1,236,667 45.8% +86,003 (+3.2%)
1:30(89% reporting): Trump 1,344,858 49.0% Clinton 1,258,026 45.8% +86,832 (+3.2%)
1:45(89% reporting): Trump 1,358,103 49.0% Clinton 1,270,549 45.8% +87,554 (+3.2%)
2:00(90% reporting): Trump 1,365,265 48.9% Clinton 1,280,508 45.9% +84,757 (+3.0%)
2:15(91% reporting): Trump 1,373,856 48.8% Clinton 1,294,376 46.0% +79,480 (+2.8%)
2:30(92% reporting): Trump 1,385,524 48.7 Clinton 1,309,965 46.1 +75,559 (+2.6%)

Wisconsin called for Trump.


Iowa
10:15(13% reporting): Trump 67,464 35.2% Clinton 114,775 59.9% -47,311 (-24.7%)
10:30(19% reporting): Trump 106,377 37.8% Clinton 160,821 57.2% -54,444 (-19.4%)
10:45(38% reporting): Trump 245,638 43.6% Clinton 286,858 50.9% -41,220 (-7.3%)
11:00(40% reporting): Trump 268,079 44.8% Clinton 297,515 49.7% -29,436 (-4.9%)
11:15(50% reporting): Trump 362,705 48.5% Clinton 342,694 45.9% +20,011 (+2.6%)
11:30: no data
11:45(65% reporting): Trump 500,822 51.1% Clinton 422,682 43.1% +78,140 (+8.0%)
12:00(83% reporting): Trump 651,519 52.2% Clinton 41.9% +128,891 (+10.3%)
12:15(84% reporting): Trump 664,195 52.5% Clinton 526,966 41.6% +137,229 (+10.9%)

Iowa called for Trump.

Early voting is in.
First 2020 results:

Dixville Notch, NH

Joe Biden: 5
Donald Trump: 0

Biden is the first presidential candidate to sweep Dixville Notch since Richard Nixon in 1960.

I hope Carville is right and this is mostly wrapped up by 10pm.

2016: LOL they actually telegraphed all the troll voting that gave Trump the <1% wins quite nicely.

Nice start.

My brain hurts.

Great OP. Thanks for consolidating all the times in one place. Looks like I should know how heavily to be drinking by about 730-8 central.

Nice posts, LKJ and Dynasty!

I regret not putting this in a poll I started in a different thread.

Another voice of appreciation for the hard work of earlier posters ITT.

As exhaustive as Dynasty's info was/is, there are other pollsters like Public Policy Polling and Yougov that have shown a democratic lean relative to the polls with more mainstream results. For example, PPP has recently polled:

TX: Biden 2
MN: Biden 11
FL: Biden 7
MI: Biden 10
PA: Biden 7

If PPP and their ilk turn out to be the most accurate polls this could be an epic landslide win for democrats.

biden kicking off a boring presidency with a boring election night is the dream

Anyone got any drinking games ideas?

I've bet an irresponsibly large amount of money on Biden. My drinking game is to get a bottle of Cognac and start hitting it as soon as results start coming out and not stopping until either A)the bottle is done, B) I'm done, or C) my bankroll is done.

I am seriously hoping Biden puts this away quickly tonight. I am pretty anxious that Trump is just going to say "I won" no matter what happens and incite violence / attempt to steal the election.

I live in one of the more liberal areas of FL, but there are quite a lot of Trump signs around. I am not as confident as a lot of you guys are about how this is going to turn out.

I’m pretty certain of two things:

1. Trump will lose

2. Trump will claim victory.

Hopefully we have enough votes counted quickly so we quash his bullshit. Be safe, everyone. And no matter what happens life goes on.

Trump went from +181 to +161 on pinnacle in a span of an hour . Is it happening again ?