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Covid-19 Discussion Covid-19 Discussion

07-10-2020 , 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
The EU and the USA are very comparable in almost always.

The EU is comprised of member States, some very large, populace and very dense with high tourism rates (more density that comparable US big cities with more tourism) and some less dense and spread out and less wealthy.

The USA is comprised of member States that meet that same complexion.

Total population of EU ~445 MM.
Total population of USA ~330 MM.

The EU had covid hit EARLIER with devastating effect and thus if it just a given that once opening things will get as bad as they are in the US then it follows the EU is now worse or went through a worse rebound of Covid.

The facts show otherwise.





The comparison doesn't work because individual EU states were able to set their own border policies, which allowed many states to mitigate infection by limiting infections coming in. The US had no such ability, and in fact when some states tried to quarantine NYers coming in during the height of the NY pandemic, Cuomo threatened to sue and the states backed down.

The only US state that was able to control their borders was Hawaii, and it should come as no surprise Hawaii has controlled the virus the best.
07-10-2020 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO2.0
Nice charts. But have you even thought about geography?

Also know what didn’t happen in Europe? Protests. Case closed.
What unique and challenging geography are you suggesting that the US has that the EU does not?


And if it was case closed re Protests (which actually many european cities had them too), then the leading growth areas for COvid in the US right now would not largely be in southern states in areas where protests were not happening.


So case opened!
07-10-2020 , 12:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
The comparison doesn't work because individual EU states were able to set their own border policies, which allowed many states to mitigate infection by limiting infections coming in. The US had no such ability, and in fact when some states tried to quarantine NYers coming in during the height of the NY pandemic, Cuomo threatened to sue and the states backed down.

The only US state that was able to control their borders was Hawaii, and it should come as no surprise Hawaii has controlled the virus the best.
LOL. You highlight Trumps biggest failing here and don't seem to realize it.

The USA as a singular country absolutely had the CHANCE to create a unified top down strategy for all States to follow.

However that would have required Federal leadership, Trump leadership which he simply abdicated leaving each State to figure out how to handle it on their own.

And it is too bad as Trump really could have been the hero of this pandemic and a true wartime POTUS had he simply created a Counsel of Governors, with himself as head, and they let CDC create and suggest all the guidelines, nationwide, and tailored to each region, and then uniformly had Trump and Governors dictate it.

Instead you had states like Florida and Texas instead flouting the guidelines and you see what ensues.


i love how Trump ran on an illusion of strong leadership and in the countries biggest test in decades he retreats to his bunker and tells the States to 'figure it out', because of his natural fear of ever being blamed for anything not working.

His view is 'if you don't get involved you cannot be blamed when it does not work' which is a terrifying mentality to have in a POTUS.

The argument that singular country all with one people with the same self interest to protect that countries lives and economy, cannot unify on strategy but 27 countries in the EU can is absurd on its face.

The US had every advantage the EU did not.
07-10-2020 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
The death rate is falling.

Sorry to ruin your liberal narrative.

600,000 Americans were always going to die from this horrible disease.

It is what it is. Hong Kong and Japan are also exploding in cases.

Mr. Wookie is quoting countries that are not as populated as the US is and does not have the ability to test the way we do.

We can watch Houston. Houston, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!

And, the whole BLM Protests didn't spread it, is total nonsense. BUT! It doesn't matter. There are no problems. A bunch of people are going to get a cold.

The Trump administration and CDC have requirements for old folks homes.

This is a horrible disease, no question, but it has been defeated. Old people are going to have to segregate for a bit. And, you know, that is a horrible thing. Grand parents not going to be able to see their grandchildren.

This breaks my heart. But, it is what it is. Total VICTORY OVER COVID.

Any other narrative is nonsense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
AND STOP WITH YOUR GRAPHS!

The people testing positive are people that don't even need to be tested. The young people have no problems with this.

Yeah, they need to keep away from their grandparents. No question. But, don't bring the disease to old folks homes. Sorry, governor Cuomo, you screwed up.

But, we got this. It is not a problem. No hospitals will be overwhelmed.

Who will take a victory lap with me?

COVID IS DEFEATED! Let's move on to the next things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
Time for a victory lap.

We beat COVID!

6 feet apart, and masks? Okay. I don't want this. It is red and spongey and has spikes.

It is scary and nasty.

But, hospitals won't be overwhelmed. No one is going to die in the streets. Take the victory lap!

Be happy!
Having a second moderator here is doing wonders.
07-10-2020 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
LOL. You highlight Trumps biggest failing here and don't seem to realize it.

The USA as a singular country absolutely had the CHANCE to create a unified top down strategy for all States to follow.

However that would have required Federal leadership, Trump leadership which he simply abdicated leaving each State to figure out how to handle it on their own.

And it is too bad as Trump really could have been the hero of this pandemic and a true wartime POTUS had he simply created a Counsel of Governors, with himself as head, and they let CDC create and suggest all the guidelines, nationwide, and tailored to each region, and then uniformly had Trump and Governors dictate it.

Instead you had states like Florida and Texas instead flouting the guidelines and you see what ensues.


i love how Trump ran on an illusion of strong leadership and in the countries biggest test in decades he retreats to his bunker and tells the States to 'figure it out', because of his natural fear of ever being blamed for anything not working.

His view is 'if you don't get involved you cannot be blamed when it does not work' which is a terrifying mentality to have in a POTUS.

The argument that singular country all with one people with the same self interest to protect that countries lives and economy, cannot unify on strategy but 27 countries in the EU can is absurd on its face.

The US had every advantage the EU did not.
So you think the EU would have handled it even better if it had a single top down strategy and completely open borders?

We will have to agree to disagree. I think you are SEVERELY discounting how much countries that didn't get hit hard in the very beginning were (and still are) able to restrict virus spread into their countries through border control.
07-10-2020 , 12:43 PM
I am curious for you to explain the differences in results between the US and Canada on a per capita basis. Currently a single mid size city in the US in some states (500,000-600,000) is having the same number of daily cases as the province of Ontario (15 million). Provinces are not separate countries with borders, and health is generally run on the provincial level (with a few smaller ones combining plans). Cases started arriving in both countries at about the same time. Both countries shut down their borders to the rest of the world at about the same time. US currently has about 13 times the number of cases (per capita) and twice the death rate (per capita) and needless to say that difference continues to get wider.

Was it geography? I really hope it is geography, as geography needs to be the new enemy!

All the best.
07-10-2020 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lagtight
Yes they were.
Only if you believe in magic.
07-10-2020 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
I am curious for you to explain the differences in results between the US and Canada on a per capita basis. Currently a single mid size city in the US in some states (500,000-600,000) is having the same number of daily cases as the province of Ontario (15 million). Provinces are not separate countries with borders, and health is generally run on the provincial level (with a few smaller ones combining plans). Cases started arriving in both countries at about the same time. Both countries shut down their borders to the rest of the world at about the same time. US currently has about 13 times the number of cases (per capita) and twice the death rate (per capita) and needless to say that difference continues to get wider.

Was it geography? I really hope it is geography, as geography needs to be the new enemy!

All the best.
The biggest rock is probably Canada doesn't have dense, urban population clusters like the US does, as these are the areas most vulnerable to disease spread.

Additional rocks probably include higher social cohesion, trust in government, and a less divisive partisan political culture (with Trump being a major contributor to this last point).
07-10-2020 , 01:07 PM
So, you are suggesting it is geography .

Canada has a bunch of cities with population above a million each, with several others between 400,000 and a million. I guess explain to me how the cases in a city like El Paso which has a similar population (700,000ish) as Hamilton, Ontario, and El Paso has 200-300ish cases in a day whereas Hamilton has under 10 a day. Is it the amount of testing . Similar city sizes. Hamilton is very industrial and blue collar and also located within an hour drive of Toronto (population 5-6 million), which has a significantly high urban density.

Can you explain with your knowledge of geography and urban population clusters what the differences in these situations would be. Now, I might suggest it is that masks (and the pandemic in general) were not political and Ontario opened much slower than Texas (still no indoor dining anywhere), but seems like you think other factors are much more important so go ahead and break it down for me. Thanks!

All the best.
07-10-2020 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
So, you are suggesting it is geography .

Canada has a bunch of cities with population above a million each, with several others between 400,000 and a million. I guess explain to me how the cases in a city like El Paso which has a similar population (700,000ish) as Hamilton, Ontario, and El Paso has 200-300ish cases in a day whereas Hamilton has under 10 a day. Is it the amount of testing . Similar city sizes. Hamilton is very industrial and blue collar and also located within an hour drive of Toronto (population 5-6 million), which has a significantly high urban density.

Can you explain with your knowledge of geography and urban population clusters what the differences in these situations would be. Now, I might suggest it is that masks (and the pandemic in general) were not political and Ontario opened much slower than Texas (still no indoor dining anywhere), but seems like you think other factors are much more important so go ahead and break it down for me. Thanks!

All the best.
The population of NY/NJ states combined are about 80% the population of Canada, in a tiny fraction of the land mass. I don't think you are fully grasping the disparate scales of population density involved.

I did some back of the envelope calculations based on death rates, and these states probably have had 5 million cases of COVID between them, with most of those cases in March-April. And they are considered success stories for how they handled the virus, at least by our MSM.

If Canada had had 5 million cases in March-April when it was still fumbling with how to control the disease the projection from there looks EXTREMELY different, even given the responses since. Not having dense, urban population centers, and not having those centers particularly hard hit when the govt was fumbling around, had a big impact on later trajectories.
07-10-2020 , 01:42 PM
Looks like we (florida) overtook texas in case numbers. We've been running neck and neck but I think we can take 'em.

In testing news.... My wife took her bi-weekly test the day before yesterday. This test required her to fake cough, then rub a swab around in her mouth. The test taker just took the swab.

Results the next day.

This is the nursing home testing that the state has taken control of. Everyone else has to wait in hours long lines until the tests run out, then wait a week for results.
07-10-2020 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
The death rate is falling.

Sorry to ruin your liberal narrative.

600,000 Americans were always going to die from this horrible disease.

It is what it is. Hong Kong and Japan are also exploding in cases.

Mr. Wookie is quoting countries that are not as populated as the US is and does not have the ability to test the way we do.

We can watch Houston. Houston, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!

And, the whole BLM Protests didn't spread it, is total nonsense. BUT! It doesn't matter. There are no problems. A bunch of people are going to get a cold.

The Trump administration and CDC have requirements for old folks homes.

This is a horrible disease, no question, but it has been defeated. Old people are going to have to segregate for a bit. And, you know, that is a horrible thing. Grand parents not going to be able to see their grandchildren.

This breaks my heart. But, it is what it is. Total VICTORY OVER COVID.

Any other narrative is nonsense.
Why would I ever bother posting evidence at your behest for you to ignore. There is nothing I could post that would have you rethink your lie that everything is fine.
07-10-2020 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
The population of NY/NJ states combined are about 80% the population of Canada, in a tiny fraction of the land mass. I don't think you are fully grasping the disparate scales of population density involved.

I did some back of the envelope calculations based on death rates, and these states probably have had 5 million cases of COVID between them, with most of those cases in March-April. And they are considered success stories for how they handled the virus, at least by our MSM.

If Canada had had 5 million cases in March-April when it was still fumbling with how to control the disease the projection from there looks EXTREMELY different, even given the responses since. Not having dense, urban population centers, and not having those centers particularly hard hit when the govt was fumbling around, had a big impact on later trajectories.
Good thing the people of Toronto will be saved by the vast expanse of the Northern Territories.
07-10-2020 , 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
I don't think you understand that roughly 300,000 Americans will die from this disease either way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
300,000 Americans are still going to die of this, but it won't be 600,000, because everyone who wants treatment can get it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
600,000 Americans were always going to die from this horrible disease.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
I was always at 600,000
Behold: Smudger, the dumbshit king of self-owns

Last edited by goofyballer; 07-10-2020 at 02:26 PM. Reason: added below quote which makes it even better
07-10-2020 , 02:21 PM
I was always at 600,000, I adjusted down when the administration said 100,000.

I still don't believe they have addressed that miscalclulation.
07-10-2020 , 02:25 PM
"I was always at 600,000. Even when I was at 300,000 I was at 600,000. PLEASE BELIEVE ME!!!"
07-10-2020 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
The population of NY/NJ states combined are about 80% the population of Canada, in a tiny fraction of the land mass. I don't think you are fully grasping the disparate scales of population density involved.
I see. That explains the outbreak in mid size cities in Texas? Silly me, I would think it might be more related to the lack of proper procedures being implemented by certain states, especially ones like Texas when they had months where basically all air travel was done, and there was minimal migration from places like New York and New Jersey.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
I did some back of the envelope calculations based on death rates, and these states probably have had 5 million cases of COVID between them, with most of those cases in March-April. And they are considered success stories for how they handled the virus, at least by our MSM.
Well, they did not have months to prepare like some of the current champions did, and again my theory would be that opening up early and party party party! along with a weird masks aint macho thing may have had something to do with it, but it seems those are not significant factors compared to the immense spread Hoboken did to El Paso.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
If Canada had had 5 million cases in March-April when it was still fumbling with how to control the disease the projection from there looks EXTREMELY different, even given the responses since. Not having dense, urban population centers, and not having those centers particularly hard hit when the govt was fumbling around, had a big impact on later trajectories.
OK, remove all those north east things you are talking about then from the equation, unless again you think the spread throughout Florida and Texas is due to people flying (when there was no air travel) from the Catskills.

How do you explain a city such as El Paso doing as badly as they are doing NOW compared to Hamilton, Ontario. If you answer is "New Jersey" then I guess we will have to agree to disagree, but I do look forward to you pushing that it is geography's fault hard in the future, as it really deserves super villain status.

All the best.
07-10-2020 , 03:05 PM


lol
07-10-2020 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
The death rate is falling.

Sorry to ruin your liberal narrative.

600,000 Americans were always going to die from this horrible disease.

It is what it is. Hong Kong and Japan are also exploding in cases.

Mr. Wookie is quoting countries that are not as populated as the US is and does not have the ability to test the way we do.

We can watch Houston. Houston, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!

And, the whole BLM Protests didn't spread it, is total nonsense. BUT! It doesn't matter. There are no problems. A bunch of people are going to get a cold.

The Trump administration and CDC have requirements for old folks homes.

This is a horrible disease, no question, but it has been defeated. Old people are going to have to segregate for a bit. And, you know, that is a horrible thing. Grand parents not going to be able to see their grandchildren.

This breaks my heart. But, it is what it is. Total VICTORY OVER COVID.

Any other narrative is nonsense.
Your position that 600k deaths in the US was inevitable, is ignorant, ill informed and just plain stupid. It could have been entirely possible to have taken steps that would have the current death toll under 50k.

You need to explain your position as, as long as Donald Trump is in charge than 600k deaths from Covid is inevitable. Anyone else and maybe we hit 15% of that.

The tragedy is as of this day 200k is not inevitable, if we started doing the things we need to do. You keep acting like your position is reasoned or reasonable while defending the person who is most culpable.
07-10-2020 , 04:06 PM
Literally every country that tries will have a death total under 1800/million population. We are not a country that's trying, so we might well hit 600k dead.
07-10-2020 , 04:07 PM
Canada did better with the virus because it doesn't have right wing news channels going around telling people that they should ignore the health authorities, nor did it have local and national leaders who pander to that.
07-10-2020 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
So you think the EU would have handled it even better if it had a single top down strategy and completely open borders?

We will have to agree to disagree. I think you are SEVERELY discounting how much countries that didn't get hit hard in the very beginning were (and still are) able to restrict virus spread into their countries through border control.
Pandemics require big brood strategies that are top down and that all affected with proximity to one another buy in to if you want to properly control it.

Of course a singular country, with one central Federal gov't that is seen as the clear leader in this type of area of Country wide risk, should be able to manage this type of pandemic better than many independent States would


The reason the EU as a WHOLE is doing magnitudes better than the US as a whole is because ALL of its member States have basically unified around the same strategy.

The reason the US is doing much WORSE as a whole is because all its States were told to create their own strategies and there was no top down plan.

If you had several EU member States all taking vastly different approaches and we were seeing similar problems compared to the US then you might have a point. But the EU states proved that EVEN independent countries can follow a top down blueprint and succeed.

The US certainly could have, ...Canada is provincially.

Trump just choose not to.

Every day Fauci gets a chance to speak it is about a top down unified approach, and 'IT IS NOT TOO LATE', and that is why Trump is slowly silencing his voice as day after day passes and guys like you say 'nothing could have been better'.

If Trump lets things be done 'better' now, that will raise questions why he did not do that prior. And Trump will never allow a mistake of his be exposed like that. He would rather everyone accept this was inevitable even if it means much more death.
07-10-2020 , 04:51 PM
This idea that the US is just doomed now and in every future pandemic to have the worst and most tragic results world wide. "We just cannot help it and must accept leading the most terrible statistics in every area', is a truly new level of sickness and depravity Trumpsters accept to deify him.

I cannot imagine being that in love with any politician, that you will say 'our new normal is being the worst in the world at dealing with pandemics and we expect no better'.
07-10-2020 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
The biggest rock is probably Canada doesn't have dense, urban population clusters like the US does, as these are the areas most vulnerable to disease spread.
If you don't count Ontario as a dense province and Toronto as a dense city, then look to the bigger and more dense EU cities that are doing far better than the bigger and more dense US ones.

Quote:
Additional rocks probably include higher social cohesion, trust in government, and a less divisive partisan political culture (with Trump being a major contributor to this last point).
Bingo. Trump.

Trump exasperated and purposely played on those things to the point that he has made not wearing a mask a sign of Trump Defiance and Support.

That singular fight he has picked is arguably the biggest thing in not allowing the US to turn that curve. You turned the curve with social distancing. It was costly in more ways than one.

Then like Canada and the EU and others you let people start going back out. But Trump did his best to minimize mask use while all the others maximized and he won't budge on that. He loves seeing those videos of Trumpsters walking in to places maskless and fighting for their 'right' to not wear a mask and endanger others.

of all the things Trump stupidly politicized this one may well be the dumbest and the one that takes him down because if this US pandemic does not get under control before a true second wave sets in as fall and winter Cold (corona) and Flu season kicks in with the cooler weather, then what we saw in New York at the peek will look like a picnic.
07-10-2020 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut
Having a second moderator here is doing wonders.
Why moderate it? You don't want the world to see what sort of incorrigible ****tards these people are?

      
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