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Covid-19 Discussion Covid-19 Discussion

07-04-2020 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
I think wagering on deaths like this is unseemly, but is your prediction for total deaths per capita, or one instance of a day or the 7DRA of new deaths per capita?
Ok. We don't need to wager.

The point is I find the way the media frames the issue to compare states to be very dishonest. Twisting reality so the state with 1700 deaths/capita is now a success story, because the death rates are going down from all time highs is just real dishonest IMO. And the media has been doing this a lot lately.

Criticizing the responses of Az and Fl is fine. Twisting some narrative where they are failures and NY/NJ is a success isn't fine IMO.
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07-04-2020 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Thanks for the response. Good point about out of town visitors. I don’t agree with you that a one size fits all approach is the right approach.

I am not saying one size approach, but we need leadership, not liberate #michigan.

That looks even worse in retrospect to have the President push people to get states to re-open at a time when we needed to quash the virus.

Everything we have done looks like a waste and now we have a damaged economy AND a serious health crisis.

We have gone about this completely wrong.
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07-04-2020 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
A fair-minded reading of the actual study here would reveal that it's utter crap. It's not remotely a controlled trial. They aren't even controlling for a single variable! Many of the patients that recovered after having taken HCQ were ALSO given the steroid dexamethasone, a drug that has been proven to reduce deaths in more rigorous studies. It is silly to think administering both snake oil and a proven drug and then having the patient recover is proof that the snake oil is effective.
Can you cite where dexamethasone is mentioned in the study? I have read through it and can't find any mention of it.
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07-04-2020 , 03:58 PM
I think Wookie might have assumed dexamethasone when it was actually corticosteroids in general. Wookie is overly dismissive of the study's methodology and findings but fox's coverage (and your one line summary) of it give far more weight to the findings than is deserved. As far as an observational study goes it seems to have had a solid methodology but at the end of the day it is still just a single observational study and has all the limitations that entails. The only full scale randomised controlled clinical trials have found no benefits to treatment with HCQ.

This is an academic analysis submitted to the same journal that gives a good overview of the strengths and weaknesses of the study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...530-0/fulltext
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07-04-2020 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golfnutt
I am not saying one size approach, but we need leadership, not liberate #michigan.

That looks even worse in retrospect to have the President push people to get states to re-open at a time when we needed to quash the virus.

Everything we have done looks like a waste and now we have a damaged economy AND a serious health crisis.

We have gone about this completely wrong.
You are way too pessimistic imo. CBO came out with an estimate of 12% GDP growth in the 2nd half of the year. BLS report on Thursday was good. On the virus front a spike in infections in some places but to me it is being managed. Lots of data points to who the most vulnerable are. Locking down until a vaccine is available was never going to happen. We’ll see how it goes in the next 6 months.

Last edited by adios; 07-04-2020 at 05:17 PM.
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07-05-2020 , 05:07 AM
Code:
COVID-19 Death Data
Date	USA	AZ	CA	FL	TX	USA 3&7 Dayy
4-Jul	273	17		18	33      Moving Avg
3-Jul	610	31	50	67	50	518	489
2-Jul	671	37	100	67	44					
1-Jul	670	88	73	45	57	AZ 3&7 Day										
30-Jun	613	44	110	58	21	Moving Avg										
29-Jun	338	0	44	28	10	28	32										
28-Jun	250	9	31	29	27					
27-Jun	506	44	33	24	42	FL 3&7 Day										
26-Jun	599	45	60	39	28	Moving Avg								
						51	45
						
						TX 3&7 Day
						Moving Avg
						42	35
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07-05-2020 , 05:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
You are way too pessimistic imo. CBO came out with an estimate of 12% GDP growth in the 2nd half of the year. BLS report on Thursday was good. On the virus front a spike in infections in some places but to me it is being managed. Lots of data points to who the most vulnerable are. Locking down until a vaccine is available was never going to happen. We’ll see how it goes in the next 6 months.
Yup, all it's going to take is for us to sacrifice grandma and grandpa to the machine and we'll see that 12% rise
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07-05-2020 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
You are way too pessimistic imo. CBO came out with an estimate of 12% GDP growth in the 2nd half of the year. BLS report on Thursday was good. On the virus front a spike in infections in some places but to me it is being managed. Lots of data points to who the most vulnerable are. Locking down until a vaccine is available was never going to happen. We’ll see how it goes in the next 6 months.
I keep missing the post of yours where you specifically suggest what states like Texas and Florida should do at this point. Fully open up? What should be open or closed? Trump style rallies a good thing at this point? The US is managing this as effectively as other countries in your opinion? Maybe the whole thing is a hoax or just a cold?

You keep posting stats as if this is managed and solved and say "lets see what happens" so I assume you are not capable of having any specific thoughts on the above question given your continued efforts to ignore it.

All the best.
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07-05-2020 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
Ok. We don't need to wager.

The point is I find the way the media frames the issue to compare states to be very dishonest. Twisting reality so the state with 1700 deaths/capita is now a success story, because the death rates are going down from all time highs is just real dishonest IMO. And the media has been doing this a lot lately.

Criticizing the responses of Az and Fl is fine. Twisting some narrative where they are failures and NY/NJ is a success isn't fine IMO.
Do you think that the decisions that NY/NJ made in early to mid March were made with the same amount of information that AZ/FL/TX had in mid to late June?

There is plenty to criticize about NY/NJ's response in the beginning. There is very little to criticize about the response in the last 4 weeks. That's what so bizarre about the response in states like Texas. They had the benefit of seeing NY putt first and miss to the side. So what does TX do after watching NY miss to the side? Aim further to the same side, of course.
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07-05-2020 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willd
I think Wookie might have assumed dexamethasone when it was actually corticosteroids in general. Wookie is overly dismissive of the study's methodology and findings but fox's coverage (and your one line summary) of it give far more weight to the findings than is deserved. As far as an observational study goes it seems to have had a solid methodology but at the end of the day it is still just a single observational study and has all the limitations that entails. The only full scale randomised controlled clinical trials have found no benefits to treatment with HCQ.

This is an academic analysis submitted to the same journal that gives a good overview of the strengths and weaknesses of the study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...530-0/fulltext
He is not overly dismissive of the study. It's a retrospective paper in the face of prospective RCTs showing the opposite. You can't dismiss this paper quickly enough because we have better evidence. HCQ does not work. You can fund yet another RCT trying to show that it does help, but it won't.
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07-05-2020 , 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Do you think that the decisions that NY/NJ made in early to mid March were made with the same amount of information that AZ/FL/TX had in mid to late June?

There is plenty to criticize about NY/NJ's response in the beginning. There is very little to criticize about the response in the last 4 weeks. That's what so bizarre about the response in states like Texas. They had the benefit of seeing NY putt first and miss to the side. So what does TX do after watching NY miss to the side? Aim further to the same side, of course.
The point isn’t that the media should be condemning NY for what they did in the last month. The point is they shouldn’t be making some fake narrative of NY being a success story relative to Texas.


It isn’t. NY has 1600+ dead/million. Texas has 90. And all the media can do is praise NY for its declining death rate, and they never mention how bad it was and still is. They don’t even give you any Real numbers. All they will give is % decline. It is straight gaslighting.

The narrative they are pumping out is absurd.
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07-05-2020 , 10:32 AM


Notice that even the grim reaper is wisely into social distancing.
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07-05-2020 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
The point isn’t that the media should be condemning NY for what they did in the last month. The point is they shouldn’t be making some fake narrative of NY being a success story relative to Texas.


It isn’t. NY has 1600+ dead/million. Texas has 90. And all the media can do is praise NY for its declining death rate, and they never mention how bad it was and still is. They don’t even give you any Real numbers. All they will give is % decline. It is straight gaslighting.

The narrative they are pumping out is absurd.
Texas isn't some success compared to NY if they end up at 1500 dead/million. NY made mistakes, but earlier in the process and with less testing capacity to identify and track the earliest spread of the virus. Texas approaching that with the benefit of months of additional time to prepare, a much larger testing capacity, and NY's example of what to do and what not to do means that the should not merely be able to do a little better than NY. They should be doing far better, but instead they are choosing not to.
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07-05-2020 , 12:40 PM
I would usually not believe that anyone would need it explained to them that how a state acted in March compared to how one is acting in July are not comparable and the July people had an insane advantage to do better, but then we do live in the alternative timeline where the President gives an hour speech, talks seconds about a pandemic that is out of control in USA#1, but has time to talk about sacred monuments and marxist threats for the bulk of it.

Wonder how many people he got sick or will kill in the latest rally. Numbers still coming in for tall the Oklahoma people that got it (thoughts and prayers).
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07-05-2020 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
I would usually not believe that anyone would need it explained to them that how a state acted in March compared to how one is acting in July are not comparable and the July people had an insane advantage to do better
It's like how Obama's leadership during ebola was a source of national shame, while Trump is a great leader with COVID now; they're comparing totally separate things.

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07-05-2020 , 06:13 PM
Well, that is a politician being a politician facing a gotcha question. She knows Trump is a complete idiot, and she also knows how to avoid gotchas. I kind of wonder when the cameras are off if these people laugh about the exercise after.

Some of the posters here though are the real deal. They literally convince themselves that 2+2=3 or 5, anything but 4. Kind of interesting. I asked a few of them their ideas of what Florida, Texas and Arizona should do - but they do not even try the dance like that politician, they just ignore the questions. That was pretty much what I assumed would happen though when I asked them, as that is standard riggie behavior.
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07-05-2020 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
I would usually not believe that anyone would need it explained to them that how a state acted in March compared to how one is acting in July are not comparable and the July people had an insane advantage to do better, but then we do live in the alternative timeline where the President gives an hour speech, talks seconds about a pandemic that is out of control in USA#1, but has time to talk about sacred monuments and marxist threats for the bulk of it.

Wonder how many people he got sick or will kill in the latest rally. Numbers still coming in for tall the Oklahoma people that got it (thoughts and prayers).
There was that Bernie Bro nutjob veggiefool or something that talked about how he would canvas and bully people into his beliefs as he knocked on their door and not leave until they agreed. He genuinely thought people agreed with him.

Lets face it you are not changing any Trump supporters minds

Go Raptors
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07-05-2020 , 06:20 PM
I met and spoke at length with the person who took the shot picture of Leonard's magical shot (he is the official photographer for the Raptors) and if you think variance is crazy in poker, try doing photography with remote cameras clicking the button and praying the shot looks good. The progression of the pictures (if you ever see them) is really interesting. Literally every other one sucks for different reasons (the one just before for instance has Leonard's face blocked by the hand of a guy on the 76ers trying to block. When he saw the end result after - he knew that was the best he would ever do in his career.

Anyway, to your point - people who are obsessed with agendas are often blinded by them, and the result is that they completely lose perspective of how they are regarded by others, and that veggiefool was definitely a prime example of that effect. You seem to be very familiar with that effect.

All the best.
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07-05-2020 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Well, that is a politician being a politician facing a gotcha question. She knows Trump is a complete idiot, and she also knows how to avoid gotchas. I kind of wonder when the cameras are off if these people laugh about the exercise after.

Some of the posters here though are the real deal. They literally convince themselves that 2+2=3 or 5, anything but 4. Kind of interesting. I asked a few of them their ideas of what Florida, Texas and Arizona should do - but they do not even try the dance like that politician, they just ignore the questions. That was pretty much what I assumed would happen though when I asked them, as that is standard riggie behavior.
does anyone not know what states should do? they should close their beaches/public lakes/parks and limit gatherings over ~50 including restaurants and any stores, have mask rules and fines/citations.

it's not a matter of what should they do it's that they won't/dont have the political capital to do it.
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07-05-2020 , 06:30 PM
They could have answered with that. They did not. At least that smudge guy, to his weird credit, thinks everything should be open and just charge straight ahead through the virus. These other guys refuse to back that route or agree to the duh, common sense approach either, and I do not really feel they are bright enough to "off the record" get it like that politician who did the gotcha dance in that video.
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07-05-2020 , 06:34 PM
I get states like Arizona, Florida and others that are now skyrocketing but California was doing great and now doing terrible again. Do we assume that was due to all the protests.

Will see in a few weeks were the deaths go as that is the number that kills Trump
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07-05-2020 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
I get states like Arizona, Florida and others that are now skyrocketing but California was doing great and now doing terrible again. Do we assume that was due to all the protests.

Will see in a few weeks were the deaths go as that is the number that kills Trump
It's mostly due to LA county opening up indoor dining despite never having their case load down to a remotely manageable level.
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07-05-2020 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lozen
Will see in a few weeks were the deaths go as that is the number that kills Trump
Trump is already dead by this measure. He thought COVID would never be a problem in this country, thought it would magically go away, thought it wouldn't be as bad as the swine flu, then thought it would stop around 50,000, then 60,000, then 70,000, then 80,000, then 90,000, then 100,000, and so on and so on and here we are, still going, no sign of stopping.
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07-05-2020 , 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
They could have answered with that. They did not. At least that smudge guy, to his weird credit, thinks everything should be open and just charge straight ahead through the virus. These other guys refuse to back that route or agree to the duh, common sense approach either, and I do not really feel they are bright enough to "off the record" get it like that politician who did the gotcha dance in that video.
Smudger is almost like a sane person. Bless him. Clorox is a helluva drug.
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07-05-2020 , 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
It's mostly due to LA county opening up indoor dining despite never having their case load down to a remotely manageable level.

Any proof? I think it’s dozens of reasons. You certainly be right though.
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