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Originally Posted by chezlaw
Whatever we think of the various face mask (and other PPE) policies, it's clearly all been driven by lack of supplies rather than anything else.
Sure, N95 masks and surgical masks are the gold standard. But cloth face masks have some positive effect and they aren't in short supply. Even the supply of non-surgical medical masks isn't too bad. Cloth mask or better regulation works in other countries.
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It's truly extraordinary how brexit is barely news these days.
Agreed.
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On the bright side it's hard to disrupt trade when there isn't any.
When I think of tradeable goods, I don't just envision cloth, wine, smartphones, or cars.
Most financial services are tradables. Sure, the financial sector has been hit by covid-19 but it hasn't come to a complete halt. Same with digital goods such as digital music or apps. Those are tradeable and parts of the digital goods sector is even booming these days. (E.g., more people subscribing to Spotify and Netflix.)
People (including at the BoE) expect that even with a substantial post-Brexit agreement, economic growth of tradeables will be roughly one percent below the path in a world with a 'no' vote on the referendum.
And that is from studies published 2019/early 2020, so before covid-19 and before the news of the last months of slow progress in post-Brexit negotiations.
Besides, most of the effect of Brexit at this stage is through lower productivity growth, not through less trade. So there is less research and development, less training of staff, less development of software, less investment in new machinery or factories etc. (Of course, that is because lower trade is expected for the future.)
So sure thing covid-19 depresses international trade a lot. And that is a huge shock to GDP all over the world. But low investment in the UK due to Brexit-related uncertainty and such is a factor that's depressing UK GDP above and beyond that.
Last edited by itsatarp; 06-06-2020 at 02:46 AM.
Reason: typo