you don't specifically target the bottom rung of society via cold calling prepaid cellphones and ask them over the phone if they are actively breaking the law and expect to get responses predominantly from legal immigrants and/or get those here who are there illegally to let down their guard and disclose to a total stranger over the phone who could be ICE for all they know that they are indeed here illegally

they didn't even get their list of those there illegally by getting that volunteered either, they only put them into that cohort if they were unable to answer the question of whether they were in the united states via legal means - had they just said "sure" then they would have been put into the legal cohort - the only ones who were classified as illegal were the ones who were made so nervous by the question they were unable to answer it

illegal immigrants tend not to disclose to strangers that they are illegal - as an expat who was often an illegal immigrant myself, i and others would never in a million years inform the locals that we were there working on tourist visas etc, it just takes one person informing on you to get deported - no matter what my status was, i always told people i had a proper work visa, unless it was the authorities in which case i was just on a lengthy vacation and came from money

imagine you're cheating on your spouse and a coworker casually asks you in front of others at the office if you're cheating on your spouse, are you going to think "well he did ask and it would be wrong for me to lie here" - or to harp on recency, the age old question of whether or not you stopped beating your wife

this group clearly wanted to get the opinions of illegal immigrants and pass it off as the opinion of another group

here's a recent podcast that deals with the reason for widespread fraud in academia

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why...d-in-academia/

here's the main group they interviewed, you can check out your website https://datacolada.org/ the reasons for the fraud are not often nefarious or agenda pushing, they are often just trying to get published and know specific findings will yield more interest

was pretty intimidated by the first 100 immigrant wall support tangent posts, decided i wasn't going to go there

by post 350 -- with two camps firmly in opposite corners shouting "DO YOU UNDERSTAND REALITY?" at each other -- i had to see what this was about

...big wow to slighted and trolly and whoever else parroted "THE DATA SAYS" and "DID YOU EVEN READ THE METHODOLOGY"

did you read the methodology? as rr said, they coldcalled/mailed likely immigrants (including a decent chunk of prepaids) and offered them money to respond to a survey. there was no verification of their immigration status, only self-reporting. who is going to volunteer they're here illegally? evidently zero, as there is only a category for "likely undocumented", albeit small, because again who is going to say "IM HERE ILLEGALLY HOPE YOURE NOT A COVERT ICE AGENT LOL". to say nothing of the selection bias where illegal immigrants would be infinitely less likely to jeopardize their lives and respond to the survey for $10-20.

this is everything wrong with studies and "scientific" data

it's confirmation bias at it's finest, a bunch of rubes in a room together with absolutely zero first hand knowledge nor even background info and yet will fight to the last breath with utter intransigence against accepting that it could be any other way than what they know must be true in their heart of hearts because that's how they want the world to be

it's really sad and pathetic

only thing separating these folks from the qanon, flat earthers, climate change deniers, and fox news brethren that they despise so much is the target, the means and methodology are identical

It's really sad and pathetic that Cuepee thinks his own experience lying about his legal immigration status and LBs posted citation are enough to self qualify as expert status. His appeal to his "authority" is a lame attempt to invalidate actual data.

Wait what? Smartdfs is Cuepee?

That would really, really surprise me.

No idea who jj was referring to, otherwise?

hes referring to rickroll

apparently 10% were willing to say they were undocumented.


if you guys hate polling and think it's unscientific that's fine. just say so, and then see your way out of discussing politics.

Oh, because of the posting style. Sorry guys, was being slow there.

As dumb as it sounds, I am every so slightly heartened that Trump was only getting 60-80% of the vote in Super Tuesday races. It's less than 95%.

Who is the likely running mate here? He has a legitimate opportunity to get people on the fence or turned off to him entirely to show up and begrudgingly pull the lever against Biden in hopes that Trump chokes on a McNugget 3 weeks in.

I'm betting on stefanik.

Well, you gave it your best nikki. rip.

i'd still bet she endorses him prior to the election. she's playing tough now, but she'll kiss the ring. and we'll have another ted cruz photo where she's calling voters for him.

jfc you are beyond hope, this is not what they said at all, this has been addressed ad nauseum

do you need rescuing? you post like are you entombed in a block of jello

Of course she is going to endorse trump. I highly doubt there are many repub politicians that think the country will be better off under biden than trump.

On the other hand, the dem nomination was more up for grabs this year than we've seen either party open with an incumbent in a long time (ever?) and all the dems fell in line. I know dems will claim this was due to a non-existent bench, but there has to be 100 small time mayors or a less known senator somewhere that could have beaten biden. But talk about kissing the ring.

This poll is not remotely as bad as you're making it out to be. It's not exactly uncommon for polls to cover topics that you might think people would be unwilling to divulge, up to and including illegal activities, but they're regularly proven to be surprisingly accurate even under these circumstances. This was also entirely an opt-in poll, not a spur of the moment request thing - the cold calling/letters etc were to make people aware of it but ultimately the respondents had to explicitly ring up, fill out a paper questionnaire, or go online to take part so anyone who was seriously scared about having their illegal status found out simply wouldn't have taken part at all.

It's not even like it's from a random polling company either, KFF is a large and as far as I can tell generally well regarded polling company. Sure it probably has a somewhat larger margin of error than a poll about a more mundane topic would have but it is not remotely on the level of being completely useless and dismissing it out of hand is similarly ignorant to someone dismissing a poll because the sample size is a few thousand for a population of millions.

Someone that "buys" into it....... Musk?

Musk is foreign born, can't run for VP

Here is my take on the names that most often thrown around:

Kristi Noem -- I don't see it. If Trump chooses a woman, it will be a woman with the right resume, not a woman who graduated from college at the age of 41 and who is the governor a state that Trump surely perceives as inconsequential.

Vivek -- No chance. He has the required energy, but Trump has no interest in a VP who will compete with him for oxygen and who, in the breach, would choose self-interest over loyalty.

Tim Scott -- Tim Scott has said all the right things, but I'm guessing that he reminds Trump too much of Pence -- that is, a religious person who Trump can't fully trust to do the wrong thing at Trump's request.

Elise Stefanik -- She's young for a VP candidate, but she probably checks the other boxes from Trump's perspective -- blue blood education, energy for the fight, largely unprincipled, and smart and ambitious enough to play the game (but not smart or ambitious enough to knife Trump at exactly the right time and step over his dead body).

Don't forget Tucker

It would be very crazy for him to choose Tucker. Trump needs the election to focus on him, not on all the dumb **** Tucker has said and done over the last decade.

D2; I was referring to rickroll but only because of his self-proclaimed expert status through antidotal life experience only in the recent post. I don’t believe they are the same person.