Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
2024 ELECTION THREAD 2024 ELECTION THREAD

03-05-2024 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
slighted, i specifically said legal immigrants

you countered that with "all immigrants"

if you don't see why your data is garbage as a response then i can't help you
if you looked at the methodology 90% of the participants are legal immigrants. 10% were "likely undocumented" because they didnt provide information. i still dont see any of your data to back up your claim, though..
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
slighted, i specifically said legal immigrants

you countered that with "all immigrants"

if you don't see why your data is garbage as a response then i can't help you
You didn't look at his data, did you?
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slighted
if you looked at the methodology 90% of the participants are legal immigrants. 10% were "likely undocumented" because they didnt provide information. i still dont see any of your data to back up your claim, though..
nowhere whatsoever do they say this

this was their methodology - cold calling immigrant neighborhoods and prepaid phones and asking if they were born outside the USA - yeah the foreign engineers at google and foreign nurses and college professors are going to skew highly towards prepaid cell phones and living in immigrant regions...

i really don't understand why you'd lie about that

Quote:
Respondents were reached through one of three sampling modes: an address-based sample (ABS) (n=2,661); a random digit dial telephone (RDD) sample of prepaid (pay-as-you go) cell phone numbers (n=565); and callbacks to telephone numbers that that were previously randomly sampled for RDD surveys and were identified as speaking a language other than English or Spanish (n=132). Respondents from all three samples were asked to specify their country of birth and qualified for the survey if they were born outside of the U.S.
they did not verify anything they simply asked people what their status was - so it was all self volunteered, so you're illegal in a foreign country, a stranger calls you up on the phone offering $10 if you answer their questions, and asks you if you are breaking the law, how many are going to say "why yes I am here illegally total stranger who could be part of a government operation"
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
nowhere whatsoever do they say this

this was their methodology - cold calling immigrant neighborhoods and prepaid phones and asking if they were born outside the USA - yeah the foreign engineers at google and foreign nurses and college professors are going to skew highly towards prepaid cell phones and living in immigrant regions...

i really don't understand why you'd lie about that
Immigration Status
Naturalized citizen 2,134 ± 3 percentage points
Green card or valid visa holder 819 ± 5 percentage points
Likely undocumented 372 ± 6 percentage points


there's literally a chart.. easy to read and everything.

what is polling if it's not just asking people things? lol.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 05:13 PM
i mean if we want to say all polls are just people potentially lying about their status, beliefs, votes, history, then fine. that invalidates all surveys and polls ever taken. but what are we even doing here then?
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slighted
Immigration Status
Naturalized citizen 2,134 ± 3 percentage points
Green card or valid visa holder 819 ± 5 percentage points
Likely undocumented 372 ± 6 percentage points


there's literally a chart.. easy to read and everything.

what is polling if it's not just asking people things? lol.
this has been addressed as that is self reported and the overwhelming majority of people contacted by randomly dialing prepaid cell phones are not going to be white collar legal immigrants



this is like polling all of america to ask them if they have ever raped someone, we're going to get all this data which shows america is rapist free
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 05:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slighted
i mean if we want to say all polls are just people potentially lying about their status, beliefs, votes, history, then fine. that invalidates all surveys and polls ever taken. but what are we even doing here then?
you can tell you lost the argument but are too stubborn to admit it when you try using strawmen to then invalidate all polls

this is why you suck at posting, there is no give or take or discussion, you started with a belief and no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance - you care about nothign but confirmation bias - you're no different from those fox news and qanon people you hate
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slighted
why bother with all that expense since you seem to try and pretend your fiscally conservative. just give everyone that's already here tax ID numbers and get them on the path to citizenship and paying into the tax base.
I think we should deport those that recently came over illegally and increase legal immigration because just saying "aw shucks, all these people broke our laws but since they are all here we should just let it slide this time and let them stay" only tells everyone who hasn't snuck over the border that they can sneak over and we will let them stay too. We should have a process in place where at least some % of the legal immigrants are chosen based off of occupation and other important factors... like every other major importer of people in the world does.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slighted
so brown people out->non brown people in is your solution. that's pretty on brand and proving the point.
As you know I want to kick some of these people out so we can be picky and legally bring in people with desirable jobs/skills. I think it is terrible that you assume brown people aren't smart/skilled enough to be desirable for our legal immigration process.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
you can tell you lost the argument but are too stubborn to admit it when you try using strawmen to then invalidate all polls

this is why you suck at posting, there is no give or take or discussion, you started with a belief and no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance - you care about nothign but confirmation bias - you're no different from those fox news and qanon people you hate
I don't have any knowledge or opinion of legal immigrants' opinion on illegal immigration, so I don't know who's right here. But I really don't get what's going on in this and a couple of your previous posts. "no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance" - did I miss some data? The only data I've seen so far was posted by him, which you said was garbage and then you accused him of lying because he used the study's own data about the percent of legal vs. illegal immigrants who responded. I also wonder how accurate that self-reported data is, so I'd want to see more studies before I was convinced he was right, but I never would have considered him to be lying, and it seems weird to suggest someone won't believe data refuting his stance when you haven't provided any - or did I miss something?
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
this has been addressed as that is self reported and the overwhelming majority of people contacted by randomly dialing prepaid cell phones are not going to be white collar legal immigrants



this is like polling all of america to ask them if they have ever raped someone, we're going to get all this data which shows america is rapist free
Why would you ask for additional data if you're going to disregard all data? Are you simple?
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
this has been addressed as that is self reported and the overwhelming majority of people contacted by randomly dialing prepaid cell phones are not going to be white collar legal immigrants



this is like polling all of america to ask them if they have ever raped someone, we're going to get all this data which shows america is rapist free
this is what polling and surveying is.. you ask people things, and they give you answers. all polling and surveys are self reported. that's what they mean.

idk where "white collar legal immigrants" came from. you started with:
Quote:
this may surprise you, but most immigrants who came in legally through the system are heavily anti illegal immigration
i gave you some polling that read differently than that.

if the argument is polling in general is flawed because people can lie, i'm not even against that argument in general. but then there is no possible way to support any claims about any groups opinions so why are we even on a politics message board in the first place.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
you can tell you lost the argument but are too stubborn to admit it when you try using strawmen to then invalidate all polls

this is why you suck at posting, there is no give or take or discussion, you started with a belief and no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance - you care about nothign but confirmation bias - you're no different from those fox news and qanon people you hate
I generally think you're a pretty decent poster but this exchange is beyond awful. It's your statement of belief that started this back and forth, specifically "most immigrants who came in legally through the system are heavily anti illegal immigration".

In fact the only person who could reasonably be described by your second paragraph here is you, since you're the person whose belief is actually being disputed by the only data that has been presented and instead of providing anything of substance to defend your belief you've instead dug your heels in, rubbished the data, and insulted Slighted.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 07:08 PM
I think it was the case in 2016 that after Trump's "build the wall" rhetoric he picked up Latino support. Whether the same applies to non-latino immigrants idk.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willd
In fact the only person who could reasonably be described by your second paragraph here is you, since you're the person whose belief is actually being disputed by the only data that has been presented and instead of providing anything of substance to defend your belief you've instead dug your heels in, rubbished the data, and insulted Slighted.
Right, this is the impression I got, but wondered if I missed something as it seemed a bit out of character.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 08:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
I don't have any knowledge or opinion of legal immigrants' opinion on illegal immigration, so I don't know who's right here. But I really don't get what's going on in this and a couple of your previous posts. "no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance" - did I miss some data? The only data I've seen so far was posted by him, which you said was garbage and then you accused him of lying because he used the study's own data about the percent of legal vs. illegal immigrants who responded. I also wonder how accurate that self-reported data is, so I'd want to see more studies before I was convinced he was right, but I never would have considered him to be lying, and it seems weird to suggest someone won't believe data refuting his stance when you haven't provided any - or did I miss something?
bobo,if you and I are discussing the amount of time required to make a sandwich and you say you can make one in just a few minutes and i respond with this data point

Spoiler:
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
It's not making 1 sandwich, it's making 7 sandwiches for 7 days.

Let's add it up:
- 2 hours spent grocery shopping
- 1 hour spent preparing 7 sandwiches
- 2 hours washing dishes for 7 days
= 5 hours total

So I've spent 5 hours to save myself $200, and in return, I get to eat food that tastes like sh*t. Sounds like a pretty bad deal to me.


would you continue the discussion with me or recognize me as a clown that is beyond hope?

serious question
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 08:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willd
I generally think you're a pretty decent poster but this exchange is beyond awful. It's your statement of belief that started this back and forth, specifically "most immigrants who came in legally through the system are heavily anti illegal immigration".

In fact the only person who could reasonably be described by your second paragraph here is you, since you're the person whose belief is actually being disputed by the only data that has been presented and instead of providing anything of substance to defend your belief you've instead dug your heels in, rubbished the data, and insulted Slighted.
i don't have access to it off hand but i've done professional research on this in the aughts - we ultimately did not publish because up top thought it would be a very divisive article

i highly doubt that has dramatically changed since then and it's an absolute minefield to find data that supports it because 99.9% of discussion using those keywords will not broach the subject and i'm not going to spend hours sifting through hundreds of academic papers looking for what i already know just to share with some ignoramus who will think it's a bad study anyway because his mind is already made up on the matter

as you can see, everything points to other subjects



what i can absolutely guarantee is that neither will anyone be able to find any solid evidence refuting that position either - hence why he is leaning so heavily on a garbage in, garbage out study because he can't find a legit one which supports his belief
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 08:14 PM
but in all reality, go and do an informal poll among the legal immigrants you know and ask them if they are pro or con illegal immigration, i think their answers would surprise you

there's a lot of latent disapointment/anger towards those who were able to skip all the months of bureacracy that they went through via a shortcut - even though objectively speaking, the life of a legal immigrant is 10x better than an illegal living in the margins of society

they mostly think it's unfair and the very presence of all those illegals is why it the process was so unnecessarily difficult for them - which is not wrong
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
I think it was the case in 2016 that after Trump's "build the wall" rhetoric he picked up Latino support. Whether the same applies to non-latino immigrants idk.
ding ding ding
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
bobo,if you and I are discussing the amount of time required to make a sandwich and you say you can make one in just a few minutes and i respond with this data point

would you continue the discussion with me or recognize me as a clown that is beyond hope?

serious question
Well, I'd probably consider the OP of that thread as beyond hope and not participate in the first place, which is what I've done. But if I was actively participating, then I actually think I'd respond, as you did. Maybe directly, or maybe via someone else's post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
i don't have access to it off hand but i've done professional research on this in the aughts - we ultimately did not publish because up top thought it would be a very divisive article
Knowing this, which you hadn't mentioned before, your reaction makes a little more sense. Still a little surprised how strong it is, and it certainly doesn't make any more sense out of calling him a liar or saying "no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance", but I can mostly follow the thought process at least.

That said, I'm still no more certain as to what US immigrants' opinion is on illegal immigrants. Not that it's especially important to me, or that it's up to anyone to educate me on the matter, just saying that I've found neither argument convincing or dismissible. I'd expect some would be resentful because they believed that said illegals were skipping all the effort they had to go through, others would have more sympathy for those fleeing difficult circumstances, and all of them would have their opinions strengthened or altered to varying degrees by how long they had been in the US, what their experience had been, the politics around them, and other factors.In the end, if I was forced to put some money down, I'd assume those factors balance out and go with the overall numbers lining up with others in their own demographics (IE age, location, income, culture, etc.). Not that anyone asked me.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 08:51 PM
yeah it was pretty clear to me, i was discussing something i actually have first hand and expert knowledge on and the person disagreeing was simply going with his hunch based on his value system and was sharing bad reports and lying about it

so yeah, i didn't have much patience for him



you also misunderstood, i'm not making 6betme's argument, i'm using his "study" on sandwich time preparation as valid source to demonstrate to you why your first hand knowledge of making sandwiches and the time required is null and void because although i've never once made a sandwich myself, i found a good "study" on it from our resident sandwich expert and thus everything you know about sandwiches is wrong - that's the point i was making, you have yet to provide a source on the time it requires to make sandwiches, i have

so are you going to bother responding with your own "study" on sandwich time preparation or realize it's best not to treat anything i post seriously?

that study is an absolute shameful abortion and the authors should be burned at the stake, they know fully well what they did and it's an outright shameful thing doing what they did, cold calling burner cell phones and then asking them if they were breaking the law and when they said now just said "ok we'll mark them down as legal" whereas the overwhelming majority of immigrants on prepaid cell phones are not going to be legal immigrants, who are nearly all highly paid and in demand white collar experts - which is how they got the legal status in the first place - college professors, engineers at google, people who design industrial lasers are not using prepaid cell phones

Last edited by rickroll; 03-05-2024 at 09:01 PM.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 10:39 PM
I travelled today to a different city where I have a Venezuelan friend in Colombia and I asked him if he's ever thought about going to the US and he was saying how his nephew did the route over land through Panama and into the US and now somehow he's legal and living in Boca Raton. But he was like "yeah that's not for me I've heard stories about people getting kidnapped by the cartels in Mexico", and how he knows another person living in New York who has to work three jobs to get by.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 10:54 PM
biden at 91% in iowa with 4% uncommitted
obama was 99% as incumbent in 2012
seems bad? or nothingburger?
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
yeah it was pretty clear to me, i was discussing something i actually have first hand and expert knowledge on.....
Hahahahahaha. Be sure to give us a list of the subjects for which you have obtained expert status so that we don't question you, no matter how poor the opinion.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-05-2024 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
what i can absolutely guarantee is that neither will anyone be able to find any solid evidence refuting that position either - hence why he is leaning so heavily on a garbage in, garbage out study because he can't find a legit one which supports his belief
again feel free to post something from the last decade that supports what you are claiming.
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote
03-06-2024 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
you also misunderstood, i'm not making 6betme's argument, i'm using his "study" on sandwich time preparation as valid source to demonstrate to you why your first hand knowledge of making sandwiches and the time required is null and void because although i've never once made a sandwich myself, i found a good "study" on it from our resident sandwich expert and thus everything you know about sandwiches is wrong - that's the point i was making, you have yet to provide a source on the time it requires to make sandwiches, i have
It appears I did indeed misunderstand. In that case, the parallel doesn't work all that well for me as the study provided in this thread doesn't seem as obviously flawed, but I haven't examined it all that carefully, so I'll bow out at that. I'd still stand by the rest of what I said in the previous post, although you've given me more to consider if I were to really try to figure out what US immigrants' opinion is on illegal immigrants
2024 ELECTION THREAD Quote

      
m