Quote:
Originally Posted by biggerboat
didn't all the 2016 polls have hilary winning?
Most polling organizations had Clinton winning 90%+ of the time just before the election took place.
538.com had Clinton winning about 70% of the time. 538 looked at all state polls (done by other organizations) and averaged them out.
There was one polling group that had Trump winning in purple states and I think their name was Trafalgar. I don't know if they thought Trump would win the election but my guess is they did.
In Purple states like Florida, NC, Michigan, PA, NH, Nevada most polls had Clinton winning by 2% to 3%. By election day I think Florida had already twisted for Trump by 1%.
But the key factor in polls in 2016 is that Clinton was never predicted to win any of the close states by more than 50% of the vote. So there were many undecided voters.
In 2020 Biden had over 50% in all of the purple states basically except Florida and NC.
In both 2016 and 2020 the polls were similarly wrong in that they underpredicted Trump's %. Biden still did get over 50% in most of the purple states but won them by much closer margins than had been predicted.
My guess in 2024 is that Trump will not get more votes than predicted as before because of Roe v Wade and also that he was basically found guilty of raping a woman. 1 in 6 women are sexually assaulted in their lifetime in the US and while I don't think they will vote for Biden if they are Republicans or conservative independents, they might just not vote at all.
I also think that Biden will poll less than 50% in most purple states so it will be a toss up.
The one thing going for Biden right now is that for Registered voters Trump is ahead of Biden in all close states. But for likely voters Biden is roughly even.
What will matter also is how many close states will have Abortion rights bills on the ballot.