Rappers? Are you serious? I can't imagine that they are going to vote for Trump in substantial numbers, but who cares in any event. What percentage of the electorate do you imagine are rappers?

or rappers that actually vote

its not really punishment. its more like, Im not gonna vote for the dude doing genocide.

No idea about rappers but according to the NYT own polls, Trump is polling better with blacks than any republican candidate in the last 50+ years

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/u...democrats.html

yea its all nuts how they ended up with biden I agree. 82 in Nov bro.
how the f is that possible? commerical pilots are forced to retire at,
wait for it....





you cant even drive a commercial bus at that age, but run a country? lol

rap music is the most influential form of music in the US if Im not mistaking. you can hear it everywhere. most people party, thats more the young but not exclusively) to rap music, or hip hop. Thats gotta be an influence not only to african american voters.

You do realize (or maybe you don't) that if trump gets elected he'll be that old before he finishes his term.

ok thanks. trump has no known health issues that Im aware of, so that made me think of biden. the barring threw me off. is that a common way of saying this? I never heard it, maybe in court trials.

This isn't the right way to interpret these odds. You should look at the implied odds for Democratic candidates in the aggregate v. the implied odds for Republicans in the aggregate.

Using that methodology, the implied odds of a Democrat winning are in the range of 45-47%, depending on whether you count RFK Jr. as a Democrat. (As an aside, LOL at RFK, Jr having a 2.7% change of becoming president.)

I'm not familiar with washoe's work. Almost as good as wreck'em.

the problem is trump comes across like 65 and biden like 100, right?
who are we kidding?

Whether or not I agree with you doesn't even matter.

It's just a weird spot for the country to be in. Huge swaths of both sides of the aisle are like "**** this noise" and actively sitting out in protest. Meanwhile, Trump's shenanigans has managed to get all sorts of would-be spectators off their couches and into a voting booth for the memes or whatever. Is he going to be the same catalyst for otherwise apathetic dems to get out and vote against him? If not, is this really how we end up with Trump again?

USA#1 needs a come to Jesus moment.

Any person can have an acute health issue, especially an overweight man as old as Trump.

ye you are right i should have written differently: oddcheckers gives higher chances to "long tail" candidates than predictit.

Which is reasonable given that people like to bet on heavy underdogs for "chance of big payout" reasons.

Anyway the data is approx there, extreme tie right now republicans vs democrats, i agree.

gallup polls put trump slightly above biden, only by 1%
how accurate are these?


https://news.gallup.com/poll/548138/...e-ratings.aspx

Yeah, this is coming I fear.

This really is a battle of fascism vs. democracy. Who knows how it will turn out.

didn't all the 2016 polls have hilary winning?

thats true. trump shouldnt even be president at that age either.

why is it that commercial airlpane pilots are forced to retire at 65 years old but you can take a job as important as president at age 81 or 82?

why didnt they make an age limit for the most important job in the country?

Most people learned fairly quickly how serious covid was for the old or non-healthy and how it was a complete non-threat to the young and healthy. Don't you think health and age demographics are way too important to ignore when comparing side by side country comparison of covid deaths? LOL at thinking laws requiring 6 feet or a mask had more of a factory in covid deaths than age, health or population density.

I think the two sides taking fairly different stances was easy to predict. Repubs tend to favor policy that will make the poor and middle class better financially long-term and dems tend to ignore the long-term financial health of the poor and middle class. That is exactly what we saw with covid - dems were fighting like hell to shut down business and schools for as long as possible (via actual shutdowns + they pushed hard for the handouts) while repubs did the opposite. We now see that was a huge mistake by dems and I hope it is a major talking point during this election. Repubs also are more personal freedom (choosing if you want to wear a mask, take the risk to eat at a restaurant, workout at a gym and to take the vax) where dems tend to feel that people are too stupid to make their own decisions.

My brain. It hurts.

thats true too, so polls mean nothing.

The people who push for a MW of 15/hr or 20/hr because they are too stupid to realize what the unintended consequences are of MW.

This is fake news NYT. I have been told thousands of times that trump is racist towards black people.

Approval rates are usually quite precise in telling you , you know, approval, especially through time, but that doesn't necessarily translates into votes for several reasons:

1) Approval is measured among adult citizens, people don't all go to vote with the same propensity (which is why the best political polls are usually those among "likely voters")

2) People who dislike both main candidates (presumably approx 15% this time) are crucial to determine who ends up winning, and approval doesn't tell them where they lean

3) Electoral college issues: Trump polling super-terribly, or "surprisingly well above expectations" among californians makes absolutely no difference, for obvious reasons.

MW actually makes far more sense (to the point of theoretically being possibly even good for actual workers) when very localized whil ebeing significatively problematic (when high enough) if implemented nationwide, so paradoxically dems are actually following economic common sense (and literature) by pushing more for local min wage increases than for national ones.

I speak from the right as a libertarian leaning pragmatist who dislikes the idea of state price setting in any part of the economy, jobs included.

But it's objectively far far far less damaging to society to have high minwage regulations in very rich places, at most you are displacing jobs, you aren't destroying jobs in aggregate in the economy almost never (unlike with nationwide MWs, which can have that outcome).

Vanilla Ice with Forgiato Blow ( The Trump Rapper)




Vanilla Ice at Mara Lago