Does that mean you are taking the prop bet / wager of an extra 5k reward against your $5 on whether or not you provide verifiable proof in the next 3 days? You seem to be avoiding that simple yes/no request, so I will assume you know you have zero proof and are avoiding taking that wager.

Feel free to say otherwise, but that is a safe default to use when dealing with people of your kind, and if you post anything at all it will be standard riggie gibberish with no valid statistical value, but odds are you are not going to post anything resembling a proper statistical study anyway.

To help you, if you want an example of some proper work read this thread.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...-tl-dr-757267/



All the best.

Right well I've just discovered an even BIGGER rig.

I applied those filters and unchecked the 'one pair on flop' filter, so it just gives me all the TPTK hands.

In 160k hands of data (filtered out rigged 2nl zoom and some playmoney games I played when I was a beginner and didn't know the rules), I've only made TPTK 709 times.

709 times out of ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY THOUSAND HANDS.

You hit a pair on the flop about a third of the time. Half of that time it will be the top pair. So it should be 1/6 times in total. I have a VPIP of about 20%, so that's about 32000 hands I saw the flop with. I should have TPTK about 5500 times in this sample, if the RNG was fair.

What an absolute ****ing joke on a site Pokerstars is!!!

i dont need any fancy work , its so obvious if put into the right concept , just wait , i accept ure public standard offer 5k if theire scamming the game somehow ,dont twist ure words , i dont know whats happening in cash tables but mttsng at pokerstars is infested with cursing magicians (house bots with hyper user abilities)


i will also show how my 81% hands are loosing at final tables in a surreal % against unexpected surreal moves from tight players that after 500 hands decides to call all in with hands like 94s, in a 5 hour sng still with lots of bb....

i dont have 10 or 20 examples i have hundreds saved, and its time to show it

In order to make top pair top kicker you first must have an ace in your hand. The odds of being dealt an ace is 4 out of 52, or 7.6%.

I don't know if TPTK precludes AA - I would have to say it does - so that means you have AK-A3. (we can exclude 2 because 2 cannot be Top Pair, ever. It can be bottom trips, or even bottom quads, or bottom boat, but not top pair). We shoudl probably exclude 3 as well because the only way A3 can make TPTK is on a 322 board. So lets go with A4 thru AK. So that's 10 cards out of 13 that can give you a flopped TPTK possible hand, and there's 4 of them out there.

That means 40/52 times you get an A you'll get a TPTK potential. 7.6% * (40/52) = 5.9%. So, 5.9% of the time you'll get a hand with TPTK potential.

On the flop you need EITHER to be holding the KING and to hit an Ace (of which 3 are left) OR you need to hit the other card (of which 3 are left).

AK hitting the A is a bit tricky to work out so lets focus on just the other card - whatever you're holding - K-4 - your odds of hitting TPTK with Ax are, AT BEST, 3/50, or 6%. The lower your kicker, the weaker your odds, because with AQ not only do you have to hit a Q but the K cannot come out, and with A4 you can only have TPTK on a 432, 433, or 422 board.

but lets use 6%. Your inflated 6% of hitting the flop with TPTK times your 6% chance of having the TPTK potential = 0.36%.

160,000 * .036 = 576.

We can therefore conclude that if it's rigged, its rigged in your favor.

Except that we can't conclude that at all because the variation between your 709 and the 576 it should be is about eight-hundredths of a percent. (0.0008 , or 0.08%)

Wrong. The odds of flopping a pair are 6/50, or 12% - about a sixth of a time.

Wrong. It has at best a 1/3 chance of being top pair, and you can't look at that in a vacuum.

yeh keep looking at the rng thats exactly where they expect u too look

I am not surprised that you lack the confidence in your proof to accept a 1000-1 prop bet about it. As I said, nobody expected anythign real from you in the way of proof, including you.


Cherry picked hands without a proper theory to prove are meaningless. Plenty of riggies toss in cherry picked hands as a way of whining about beats. If all you do is want to post whiny beats then go to BBV.

As I said, you will provide nothing of value. Quit all forms of poker.



All the best.

Let me see, how do we factor in AK and catching the A on the flop.

The odds of having Ax are 5.9%. That's AK-A4. Only AK can be TPTK with A on the flop, so that's 1/10th of 5.9% you have AK, or 0.59%

And hitting the A means you have 3 chances out of 50 left = 0.06 = 6%. That times the 0.59% = 0.0354%. Add that to our previously identified 0.36% and we get 0.3954%. That times 160k is 632.64. 7Vs. your actual 709 the variance is now down to 0.00048125 or just about five one hundredths of a percent.

Yeah, sorry, that's not proof of a rig, not by a mile.

1) To whom are you talking?
2) What is this supposed to mean?

Evil. Odds of making a pair (or better) on flop with two different hole cards is about 33%.

Donkey. You're doing the maths wrong again. You can't really look at the fact you played 160,000 hands. You didn't. Did you account for your VPIP? Of course not. You didn't play 160,000 hands, and certainly didn't have 160,000 hands with an ace in to make TPTK.

For starters you likely have folded loads of rag aces, and likely only have a VPIP between 20%-30% depending on your play style. Then take into account all the times you've raised with AK or any other Ax and you've not seen a flop.

So really saying out of 160,000 hands you got a low number of TPTK hands is a bit silly to be honest.

riggies lol monteroy , is not riggies no more , i have hm with more then 7k mttsng , and im a winner with great roi in the games i play ,

i told u this once , u quit all forms of posting star fan boy comments and anti-progress chauvinism in this topic because u are not even a poker player , what u are is more a capitalist parasite , and u dont play like a regular player so how many games do u have played at ps to form such strong stars fan boy **** opinions? also refrain from childish comments about 5 dollars , no comedy at all and rather childish

wow

I have played about 25,000 games on Stars total, and before that played a considerable amount on probably nearly 100 rooms, most of which you never knew ever existed. My user name is not a secret, but I am sure you will not say yours. Riggies are nearly always too embarrassed to say their user name.

I have seen your kind all the time - ie: a not so bright whiny loser with no emotional control or stability. No idea if you are a riggie or not, you probably are paranoid, but in the end all you will do is yell a lot, and maybe talk about a few cherry picked hands that mean nothing.

You know your beliefs are worthless, otherwise you would have taken the 1000-1 wager I offered you. You are not even willing to put 5 bucks behind your beliefs. Kind of sad, but expected.

Quit all forms of poker.


All the best.

Yes, you're right, but Donkey was not talking about "a pair or better". We're talking about TPTK in general, and on that specific quote I was talking about exactly one pair.

To hit A pair with 50 cards left and two different hole cards that means there are exactly 6 available. 6/50 = 12%.

Wow what?

Are you under the impression that it is instantly clear to others to whom you are responding, or that your command of the language is so profound that your meaning is instantly understandable?

The reason for the first question I asked was - I do not know if you're responding to me or to someone else. Learn to quote.

The reason for the second question was:
This suggests that you think they're hiding the rig somewhere else, somewhere undetectable. The question is - how would they do that? It makes no sense - poker is covered 100% by math you can't rig something so that the games results go against the maths AND make it undetectable.

So I asked what your quote is supposed to mean because you've proposed an impossible thing, like a square circle.

Look I don't give a toss about some random maths BS used to 'justify' complete garbage Pokerstars hands. I can tell when it's rigged and when it's not without sitting down cracking out line after line of maths.

u are not a reg in 9 years thats very few games


my avg buy in is 10% of yours and i still get almost half the the money u get per game , so reconsider the bright part because hm tells me i play fine

what is sad is u keep ure chauvinist commedy act when people want to discuss serious matters like house bots with hyper user abilities at mttsngs , and u keep talking about 5 bks omg

The problem, DS, is that you think the math is random at all.

It isn't. Not slightly.

There are specific formula that predict odds, and using those formula I just showed you that you flopped TPTK almost EXACTLY as often as you should flop with your hand history count. (To a variation of 0.05%.)

Now look - If you're going to simply dismiss the math, and declare to the world that YOU KNOW BETTER THAN THE MATH, then your game will never improve. You cannot WIN long term at poker without striving at all times to be fully self actualized. You cannot play poker in denial and win.

Your graph shows that something changed at around 12k pairs. You started losing more without showdown. Every time you fold, you lose, so if your folding pattern was consistent, your loss w/o showdown line would be fairly straight, but it isn't, it curves down noticeably.

So - SOMETHING changed. SOMETHING made you fold more often. You cannot say with certainty that its because the guys GOT there, because you never saw their hole cards, you cannot KNOW that. Thus, you are ASSUMING they got there.

My suggestion is that you start posting those hands with TPTK that you fold, and ask what you're doing wrong - because apparently TPTK has become a huge leak. Maybe you're overplaying it pre and getting re-raised off the hand, maybe you're just playing scared and folding when you should call it down. I don't know - but somewhere inside YOU DO.

So you can live in denial and scream about the rig or you can focus on you and become a better player.

That choice is yours.

To hit pair it's (6/50)*(6/49)*(6/48) though for flop. To hit just TP alone think it would be closer to 17% (16.something) with one card accounted for.

Or maybe I'm missing your point? Or my math is wrong, which is equally possible given I've had 3 hours sleep.

Actually now that I think about it, we're both wrong.

It's not 6/50 because that's only one card.

But your math posted works out to 0.0018 or .18% and that can't be right... Your math represents hitting a hole card on each flop card, meaning a flopped boat or flopped quads.

To hit exactly one pair with either hole card but only one pair shouldn't it be the odds of hitting one card PLUS not hitting the other two? Roughly
6/50 * 44/50 * 44/50 (I'm simplifying the 50's because any of them could be the hit and anyone could be the miss...)

With that I get about 9%...

Damn it, I think I need to audit a statistics class...

I am hardly a regular player any more (though you are welcome to join me at the Razz cash tables any time), but my Stars stats are 26,000 games played with about the same in profit, so about a buck a game with an average stake of about $14

What you are then saying is that you play at 10% my buy in so that means you play games that are about $1 to $1.50 and you make half the money I make per game which means you make about 50 cents per $1-1.50 you invest. That means you have a long term consistent ROI in the 30-40% range. Interesting!

Also, since 26,000 games is according to you "a few games," that means you must have played several times that, but lets assume just triple the number of games for now.



Simple to prove - say your user name and we should see a graph that shows you have played 75,000+ games with an ave buy in of $1-$1.50 and you have about $40,000 in profit over those games.


I suspect we will see that proof about the same time as your riggie proof.


Until you are ready to back your beliefs with even a trivial amount of money or get the courage to actually post your user name to show that you even have results similar to your claims why should anyone take anything you say seriously?

If you just need to whine that's fine, do it here and in BBV, but you will be treated appropriately as an emotional whiner. If that makes you mad then go and buy some testicular fortitude and put your money or your user name where your mouth is for a change. Stop being such a coward, and post less when drunk and stoned.


All the best.

last time I had my mathmatical IQ tested it put me in a very high bracket to give you an idea, on the last official IQ test i had I was 2 points of mensa which really upset me and i think there is some inaccuracies there that been said the math questions seriously impacted upon my score due to getting very close to 100% on them.

i was seriously impeded by spatial awareness questions and I am sure this will not surprise many here the language type questions.

in fact neurological research actually shows i have a brain hard wired for maths. That been said I have never been able to just guess weather it is or is not reliable and realistic due to variance.

there is 1326 pre flop hand permutations in texas holdem. with 3 possible community cards relating this the amount of possible permutations gets very large, especially when we factor in turns and rivers.

with such a large amount of potential outcomes it is not realistic for anyone to guesstimate weather there outcomes are realistic or not. specifically when you are using a biological computer (the human brain) that has been scientifically proven to have interpretation bias. Also factoring in unavailable info this makes the whole prospect unrealistic.

with my high mathematical iq i made a number of wrong assumptions about poker, and was surprised when i actually went and did the maths rather then guessing.

believe me you cant just guess you need to do the maths. and the fact that you publicly state that you do not care about an objectively proven methodology for calculating how reliable outcomes are but instead choose to trust, a mechanism that has been scientifically proven to be prone to mistakes and bias, does not bode you much credit here.

house bots with hyper user abilities that act at the right moments and distribute and are refreshed constantly, and beat u precisely when it matters , hey if i gain 4 all ins with a 81% hand and at the final table i loose one the most important one , i would still be within the expected results , the thing is they abuse it and i found a hole that when rightly observed can indeed show manipulation of games , im just reuniting all final tables and near i have to show u all that something scummy is happening , my 81% hands are winning 81 overall , but i know my db will show u all that at important points my 81% pre flop all in hands are not working the same way when it matters most

Filter your results by blind level. If you play MTTSnGs (like 180 mans) then the FT blinds will fall within a fairly expected range, so alien superbots letting you win earlier in the tournament to get you on a FT will be discovered this way (unless the tracking sites are controlled by the aliens as well and corrupt the data...)


All the best.

coward lol , in this same topic i posted hh of my sessions with username, lol.

excuse me ? if my db shows that im gaining only 75% in my 81%hands as example, of my pre flop all ins at final tables is that not weird ,,,,? also in many cases joined with unexpected weird beahviours from the players that bad beat u .... i know something is not right and i will be back with proof or humility to say i was wrong , but i dont think i am