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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition
View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?
Yes
3,503 34.88%
No
5,608 55.84%
Undecided
932 9.28%

03-07-2013 , 12:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
And again, I make a thoughtful reply trying to answer you questions and you reply to it with a snarky 2 sentence post.

Go **** yourself.
Very helpful

I'm guessing your previous post took longer to write than you spent thinking about your comments
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 01:01 AM
If you didn't have 4 years of posts on here whining like a little girl about losing 40 bbs, I'd be certain you were a gimmick. You're like a living rigtard stereotype. I mean, for ****'s sake, you've been convinced of this whole "I lose 70% equity hands 80% of the time!" bull**** for 4 years, and you've still yet to figure out how to test it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi
Excellent point about the skewing but I'm only interesting in analyzing the frequency of run downs after the all-in relative to EV, and as a subset of all all-in hands. I will likely only consider hands where I am 70% or better favorite in the analysis. I'm looking to (dis)prove that the frequency of miraculous run downs is way off the charts given a significant sample size. My feeling is that I'm losing all-ins as a 70% or better favorite more than 80% of the time, not the expected +/-30%.
Can you wipe your own ass?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 01:07 AM
Don't worry guys i live in NJ after my most recent beating on carbon i will stay away from online till AC sites come online an let you know if their is a difference.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
If you didn't have 4 years of posts on here whining like a little girl about losing 40 bbs, I'd be certain you were a gimmick. You're like a living rigtard stereotype. I mean, for ****'s sake, you've been convinced of this whole "I lose 70% equity hands 80% of the time!" bull**** for 4 years, and you've still yet to figure out how to test it.


Can you wipe your own ass?
Total credibility booster dude. And so thoughtful

Yes, it was that one hand I'm always whining about. You've outted me!
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 01:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi
So without being evasive or dismissive (or Monteroy), why not tell us what EXACTLY you will accept as evidence and some if us might just be able to give it to you. Just outline the process and form of results you will accept.
Well, I don't know if you're going to consider this evasive, but it really depends on what you're looking for. I'm not a stats expert, but I know you're going to need to decide on one or two things you believe you are seeing on a regular basis, and test for those.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi
Suppose, as I said before, the rig works to make 60-70% equities 30-40%, given certain conditions (i.e protecting fish). Let's say I realize my 60-70% equities in 7 of 10 non all-in (small) pots but lose 8 of 10 all-ins (after getting it in as 70% or better), for an overall loss despite my +EV. How can we test for that?
I think you've pretty much spelled out what you're looking for; now you just need to teast out the data. I don't know if there's a way to filter for hands with X% equity against only players that are "fish", which I guess you could define by looking at some thing like their BB/100 winnings (or losses in this case) stats. Maybe you can find some help in this regard in the PT or HEM thread in the Commercial Software forum.
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03-07-2013 , 01:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScamCity
Lets rejoice as players at least security people from pokersites aren't posting in this thread while cheating takes place on thier site. Guess all one had to do was speak up
Geez, you're just such an awful poster. Easily the worst in this thread by far right now. Actual conversations going on, and you just pop in with this stupid non-sequitur again, all proud of yourself because Josem hasn't posted for a few days, which is mind-numbingly stupid when we're the ones who pointed out to you how ridiculous your assertion was given that he posts in here rather infrequently and he doesn't work 24/7. Yet here you are still prattling on about it.

Move along, you've become nothing but a troll now.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi
Pokersites are looking for new ways to protect fish in a (soon to be) truly regulated environment where other rigs and manipulations will be discovered.
Exactly. Funny the timing here of the "Fair Play" bull****...Right before states start to open up regulated sites.

But who's to say some Tonka Toy collector won't get greedy and try and pull some riggory anyways and try and slip one past the goalie in the regulated market? How are we supposed to even believe that it will be fair shuffle and deal even then? Just a joke
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:22 AM
Too funny, too funny. Every time someone comes on here and complains about running horribly all the shills chime in and demand that they download HM. The guy from a few pages back does just that and shows his suspicious all-in EV chart, and the shills now say "all-in EV is irrelevant"!? Who do you shills think is buying your bullsh*t?

I've been so tempted to post some of my runs of horrendous beats over the last few days, but I'm not even going to bother. I am beyond convinced of Cake Poker rig. I can't speak for Stars but I guarantee none of the "expert coaches" from this thread could win on my account.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
And yet I don't think you've ever made any kind of strat posts here. Odd.You can try either one for free, and they work with any style of play.Yes, it does.As ScamCity loves pointing out, I've been posting in this thread for a few years now, and I've never seen anyone post actual stats or hands as proof. Never. The closest to that was AMEC0404 giving his hand histories to spadebidder to analyze, then losing his mind when he was told there was nothing out of place with them.Almost all of it? Try reading CMAR's awesome post about why all in EV is stupid, and also research what it is a bit more if you want to use it as some form of evidenceYou act as if runner runner or two out beats should never happen. In a 3 million hand sample, there should be plenty of both.It's quite simple, really: Tell us what you think the rig is, then prove it with hand histories.Again, see CMAR's great post about EV.It's undeniable because you believe in it, and strongly remember anything that affirms your beliefs and forget anything that doesn't.I bet you can't predict the outcome of all ins more than 50% of the time.

It takes more than just someone's word to convince me of "truth".There we go, a testable hypothesis (although it has easily moved goalposts with the whole "protecting fish" statement).Again, this isn't how EV works.
I'm not sure if HEM lets you filter for equities when not all in, but I think it does. You could run filters for flop or turn equities and compare winnings, then run the same filters but add that you have to be all in and check the winnings there pretty easily.
I finally found someone who has a little more of a condition than Dr. Monty. This one may be 4x the height of my monitor
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjwhite09
Exactly. Funny the timing here of the "Fair Play" bull****...Right before states start to open up regulated sites.

But who's to say some Tonka Toy collector won't get greedy and try and pull some riggory anyways and try and slip one past the goalie in the regulated market? How are we supposed to even believe that it will be fair shuffle and deal even then? Just a joke
I'm not sayin the US Fed will regulate or audit perfectly. Hell, I doubt they'll even do it well. HOWEVER, Pokersite has to assume they will want to audit their software at some point in the process.

I believe the US DoJ already has concerns about Pokersite's software but chose not to include that issue in Black Friday indictments because they have bigger concerns and easier charges to prove than consumer fraud.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:46 AM
I will enjoy playing on Caesars Poker here in the US. And they won't have to rig the deal because they already have a legit business.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjwhite09
I finally found someone who has a little more of a condition than Dr. Monty. This one may be 4x the height of my monitor
15 sentences sure is a lot to read, maybe you can work your way up to it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wakeup!
I will enjoy playing on Caesars Poker here in the US. And they won't have to rig the deal because they already have a legit business.
I will enjoy you crying about Caesars Poker being rigged the second you lose a flip.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
Well, I don't know if you're going to consider this evasive, but it really depends on what you're looking for. I'm not a stats expert, but I know you're going to need to decide on one or two things you believe you are seeing on a regular basis, and test for those.


I think you've pretty much spelled out what you're looking for; now you just need to teast out the data. I don't know if there's a way to filter for hands with X% equity against only players that are "fish", which I guess you could define by looking at some thing like their BB/100 winnings (or losses in this case) stats. Maybe you can find some help in this regard in the PT or HEM thread in the Commercial Software forum.
I don't think we necessarily need to identify anyone as a 'fish'. As I've been saying recently, I've been experimenting with fishy play myself (overcalling small pocket pairs and draws) and have been rewarded for doing so far too often (but still lose all recent profit with AA v A/rag all-in pre flop). I suspect the rig is designed to reward fishy play (i.e. inexplicably horrible calls), especially in all-in scenarios.

I don't know about HEM but I do know that PT does not track all-in equity street-by-street (I recently posted a link to a PT response in this regard). Dude who asked did so because he felt PT was hiding the necessary stats so as not to offend (Stars was the impression I got). The PT reply was that they decided there was little value in that particular stat. You can filter for each street but not combined EV or equity to determine some 'luck' or bad beat factor.

Is there an easy way to find my post with that link? Dude said it better and I suspect the PT rep is related to Monteroy

I do know that there are more riggies on PT and HEM forums than are here and they are asking the same questions and getting the same answers (i.e. there is no reliable stat to reveal the all-in/bad beat rate we are looking for)

Last edited by 3ozBacardi; 03-07-2013 at 03:11 AM.
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03-07-2013 , 03:05 AM
If you click on your own name and choose "Find more posts by...", you can find see your last 250 posts. Or choose search at the top of this page in the middle, then advanced search. Enter your name in the "Posted By" field, or whatever it's called, and then you can choose a keyword or two at the same time.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 03:17 AM
Thanks Bobo (never thought I'd be saying that)

Originally posted 02-02-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi

I've been poking around 2+2 and other forum and finding the same conclusions and arguements re: all-in EV (AIEV) and street-by-street EV, which is nicely said by a HEM support rep:


HEM rep

Hi,

Were not trying to be difficult so i apologize if we came across that way, the reality is this discussion goes on as much as the "is poker rigged" discussion and the facts suggest that AI EV is more accurate than street by street. This thread goes into discussions on it AIEV vs Street-By-Street EV - Gambling and Probability - Probability Theory Forum but if you can find some proof or study that suggests different its something well consider again.

We did consider this before and since AI EV is more accurate we went with that one, adding another type of EV isnt a terrible idea but it does over complicate things somewhat and we didnt think there was merit to add something less accurate than what is already there.

It can also be argued that AI EV is also flawed since it only shows hands that got to showdown and not all hands but that is not the issue here, the issue is which one is more accurate and the experts advice seems to suggest that AI EV is more unbiased and accurate.

We just wanted to be upfront about it rather than say well add it to the suggestions when we dont have plans to add it. I wont rule out reconsidering that if you can provide links to studies that prove street by street is more unbiased and accurate on a reasonable sample size and we may reconsider adding it if enough people really want it but most people when they realize that AI EV is more accurate realize that is the better option.

At this time we are not reconsidering this feature request but as i said if new information arises well certainly be happy to review it again


Originally Posted by OP

It's clear that they are instructed by the poker sites to hide their softwares are rigged.....

HEM rep.

This is completely incorrect. We obviously follow the restrictions they set forth so our software will be allowed but they do not prohibit this type of analysis. We have chosen not to include this in the past because it is inherently biased, as explained earlier in the thread.

BTW, I'm testing the 'bad play is rewarded' component of my theory on micro Zoom full ring. I'm catching way more premium starting hands, catching set after set (4 in a row) and overcalled draw after draw. More A on the river than I kept track of. I can't give it away! I'm running like never before just by never giving up.

Either I suddenly got waaaaayyyyy better or something is up. You can guess what I believe.

And guess who catches the river in checked down pots? You guessed it - the worst preflop caller!
Sorry. I thought I posted the link too.

And this was HEM, not PT...my bad

Last edited by 3ozBacardi; 03-07-2013 at 03:29 AM.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 03:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wakeup!
Too funny, too funny. Every time someone comes on here and complains about running horribly all the shills chime in and demand that they download HM. The guy from a few pages back does just that and shows his suspicious all-in EV chart, and the shills now say "all-in EV is irrelevant"!? Who do you shills think is buying your bullsh*t?

I've been so tempted to post some of my runs of horrendous beats over the last few days, but I'm not even going to bother. I am beyond convinced of Cake Poker rig. I can't speak for Stars but I guarantee none of the "expert coaches" from this thread could win on my account.
I hear you, but the more of us who post, the more likley lurkers are to heed our warnings. Please, don't let the shills deter you. They are but a few zelots with motives, whatever they may be.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 03:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop

I will enjoy you crying about Caesars Poker being rigged the second you lose a flip.
You know as well as i do that we won't even be having these conversations. Players that know how to consistently get their money in good in the most important spots will easily maximize our profits vs all the new players who get excited about legal poker. It will be so joyful.

Below is how we will Bruce Lee the recreational fish in legal poker...

The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 03:42 AM
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 03:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjwhite09
You know as well as i do that we won't even be having these conversations. Players that know how to consistently get their money in good in the most important spots will easily maximize our profits vs all the new players who get excited about legal poker. It will be so joyful.

Below is how we will Bruce Lee the recreational fish in legal poker...

LOL!
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 04:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi
Let me see if I understand you. You see moronic all-in calls with nothing, no pair, no draw (in PLO no less) catch miracle runner runner everyday so it's perfectly normal to you and no cause for suspicion? It's just typical shortstacking light-a- match-to-it morons and miracles?

He "needs to call" but you don't?!
OK, let me say it again.

When I say he needs to call $152 to win $422 I am describing the odds IF he calls. He can win $422, and if he chooses to call that then he needs/will have to/must put in $152.

I'm not saying that he needs/ought to/must call. In fact did I not explicitly say that I thought this was a bad call ?

By playing shortstacked, OP engineers a situation where these kind of pot commitment scenarios will happen all the time.

I am looking at that hand in a vacuum, I have no idea whether there was any dynamic between OP and the villain. Against an unknown, which is how I looked at it, I would take OP's play as having his hand face up and him having 100% value hands in this spot. If there could be a percentage of air in OP's range there, then it becomes close.

But really my point is more about shortstacking. In 3bet pots you will see stacks get in on the flop a LOT due to pot commitment issues. This doesn't make the villain's call here any better, but OP will see a lot of situations where his opponent calls off his stack light because of stacksizes.
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 06:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrgreen4568
Shills, site promoters, online poker site employees and affiliates actually take up most of this thread. They probably already know the sites are rigged. Why would they spend most of their waking hours in this thread defending the scam known as "online poker"? You might have noticed this is the best time to post as they are off shift right now. Never know though, if awakened in the night, first thing they will probably do is check to see if new posts have come in here.
Good heavens, what a witty post!

I wonder why none of the other riggies haven't come up with this nonsense before.

Oh, wait ...
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 07:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wakeup!
The guy from a few pages back does just that and shows his suspicious all-in EV chart, and the shills now say "all-in EV is irrelevant"!? Who do you shills think is buying your bullsh*t?
I'm not a stats expert - can you go through one of the posts detailing why the poster thinks AI-EV is a poor measure to draw conclusions on and tell me where their reasoning is off? Maybe take CMAR's post (linked a few posts up) and go through that one line by line?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 07:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3ozBacardi
...I believe the US DoJ already has concerns about Pokersite's software but chose not to include that issue in Black Friday indictments because they have bigger concerns and easier charges to prove than consumer fraud.
Why do you believe this?
The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition Quote
03-07-2013 , 08:41 AM
Riggies genuinely that that nobody will believe the US sites (when they run) are rigged?

People already are deeply paranoid about the automated shuffler machines that many of these same US casinos use, and a decent percentage of the US population believes the government was responsible for flying planes into buildings over a decade ago.

You riggies are amateurs ever at understanding your own paranoia. Many of these same ones will be the ones screaming how the evil rig conspiracy involves the US sites once they play there, just like they did about the site that was built by riggies for riggies (Real Deal Poker) before it shut down.

All of you should never play another hand of online poker, except for the dude who plans to spend money to be a pro in Costa Rica.

All the best.

Last edited by Monteroy; 03-07-2013 at 08:47 AM.
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03-07-2013 , 08:50 AM
Worth noting that Real Deal Poker sold my personal information to a third-party after ceasing operations.
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