If you have the "evidence" and it is "obviously rigged" and they are "stealing" from you, then go ahead, do some math and bring that crooks down.

When i see what you call "evidence" and "proof", then i think that we can all be happy that you are no cop.

Keep whining!

Look, shows my different winrates at different times of day. Notice how it drops during the time donks will be playing (8-10pm).

[img]http://s10.************/gii22oakp/Pokertracker_USD_won.jpg[/img]
photo storage

Wow, you say that results in a game with an element of chance are NOT always equal?

Stop the presses!

If you are using Poker Tracker, stop wasting everyone's time with individual bad beats or meaningless winrate graphs, and start providing the statistical evidence to back up all of your claims like opponents winning with 1/5 hands 4/5 times and you NEVER winning when you have those type of 32% equity hands. Those should be pretty easy claims to back up.

You need to show a set of data. Tell us what you think should have happened, show what actually happened, show the calculations which say how likely the result was. You talk about 100 AA hands - post the stats for a consecutive 100 of your AA hands that were all in, AIEV vs winnings.

You have been here on 2+2 for a few weeks. You talk about 'donks' and yet just in November you were without doubt a huge clueless fish. Now you have improved some, as some of us have tried to help you, and you took some of that on board, so due credit there. You are not entitled to win all the time though.

Poker is a game of significant variance, way way more than the trivial examples that you are getting so exercised about. You really completely fail to understand this, and that is something you should work on.

You must not have played enough live games. I have seen and been involved in that situation live so many times. I have taken so many beats live that you would swear the games I played in were rigged. I have been in a casino where in an 8 hour span there were 8 four of a kinds and a straight flush in one night at one table. This was in No limit holdem. I have played 888 in NJ and it seems ok to me. I have clocked so many hours live and been involved in beats that I have never taken online.I have clocked thousands of hours in both online and live. The only games that are rigged are blackjack or casino games. You are pretty much guaranteed to lose in the long run.

I am not understanding why you think you have a $100 quota. Why do you think they want people to lose everything in one hand? I would be more concerned if there was an abnormal amount of ties in the game. If a online room wanted more rake they would increase the tie rate. The reason you need so many hands to prove your case is because everything is relative. Cards are not guaranteed to break even for you. Overall they should average out but you may not live long enough for that to happen.

There are numerous sites that have analyzed and screened millions of hands on pretty much every site. They all fell within the normal standard deviation of what they were supposed to for pretty much everything online. Pairs were where they were supposed to be. All in equity pretty much on point. It is not like these sites have any real bias or anything. A bunch of these people are math geeks and do this stuff for fun. They have not found any rigging yet. I am not saying it is impossible, just no one has found it yet. If you can prove it with math, than go for it.

You've discovered that high-variance play results in high variance?

Thank you Captain Vespucci-Obvious! You've done the poker world a solid.

I am genuinely satisfied that the latest nano riggie chose to take my second list of advice instead of my genuine first list of advice, and he is now working on his paranoia rather than his actual game. He is on a path he deserves, and the fact he compares live play to online play (of 2/4 cent blinds) is impressive, because every player should be taking online poker seriously when they have 75 cents at stake!

There was a video by a guy who was screaming all the time while playing nanostakes and he was about to lose 40 cents or something with AA (he spoke about it in terms of big blinds as well), and while he was screaming he got a river which beat another players flopped 2 pair and did not realize he won for a while. It was posted ina thread here somewhere recently, but no idea where, but if one watches that it is basically the same human as this latest riggie.

I hope he keeps up his good work!

All the best.

I never said I expected them to be equal. If nothing else, winrates will depend on the amount of time I spend at each given time interval (I don't, for instance, play much poker at 7am, and it shows in the graph).

But it is certainly 'interesting', that the time when the most rec/fish players will be on (evenings after work) also shows my largest losses. One would have thought that would be prime time for winnings. Doesn't prove much by itself, of course, but it's certainly not a result you'd expect. This, when coupled with other shady goings on at 888 makes me suspicious.

How would I go about filtering for 'hands I have xx% equity in and won yy% of the time'? Or filter for hands where villain was a 20% dog preflop but made a better hand by the river? I'm sure I could provide the proof but I don't think the database supports filters like that, and I'm not trawling through 40k hands to pick out all the hands where I was a favourite preflop but villain outdrew me.

The 100 AA hands was just an example. I don't even have 100 AA hands in my 40k hand sample that I managed to get all-in with, let alone 100 suckouts.

Thing is, it's not just about AIEV. I already know I'm running below EV according to that statistic. Our opinion differs as to how noteworthy that is (I'd say been 8 buyins below all-in EV, at the type of stakes where the main goal is really just to win 20-30 buyins so you can move up to the next stake, is reasonably significant. After all, no one's making any decent money grinding 4nl, everyone has the goal of moving up). But there's a whole load of stuff that AIEV doesn't capture. For instance a couple of sessions ago, I had AA pre. Raised it, got a 50% VPIP fish caller. Flop was something like J74r, nothing dangerous. I put in a cbet and he calls. Turn is a brick, I bet again, and he calls again. River is a 7. No straights or flushes possible. I bet again, he calls. Turns over 75o for his trip sevens. Now because I wasn't all-in in that hand, AIEV doesn't take into account the unluckiness of this situation. But we all know losing to some trash hand on the river when the board was dry is extremely unfortunate. That pot cost me a good 50BB of my stack, but I don't see how I could have played it differently.

Then you've got the countless times I'm holding AK/AKo, villain calls my raise with something crap like 87o, and the flop hits his pairs but not mine. Or he rivers himself some ******ed straight after an ace/king high flop caused me to start betting. Again, not shown in all in EV, but these types of pots seriously kill your winrate.

I know you can't expect to beat players with reasonable stats all the time (i.e. VPIP 10-30), but when you look across the table, and see guys with 70% VPIP winning pot after pot...it's just not possible unless the system is set up to make it so. I see at least 1 of these guys every night, and many times it's more. A guy with those stats should be losing the vast majority of the time he sits down at the table. But they often seem to scoop massive pots multiway by hitting some ridiculous monster hand on the turn or river and thus take in more in that hand that you've made over a couple of hours of solid, patient play.

The last time I remember getting a lucky river card to beat a villain in a hand I was behind all along with plenty in the pot was in some irrelevant freeroll tournament last week that I was just splashing around in shoving any two broadways. I've not got some lucky 2 outer in ages in a cash game, but villains get river cards to beat me every night. It's definitely a hell of a lot more than I get river cards to beat them, anyway.

So when the first donk shoved and the second donk called and the third donk called, you thought OMG my AK is the nuts here?

To be clear, not saying you should fold (though considering how averse you are to any sort of risk perhaps you should) but with AK in that spot, it's hardly a nailed on win. Even if donk one shoved, everyone folded and you called with AK, your only what 60/40 and no doubt wld have posted a bleat about that being rigged as well.

See, PokerPlayer, on the one hand you throw around vocables like "stealing", "robbing", "it must be rigged", "obviously", "definitively", "surely", on the other hand you display a huge inability in understanding variance and using your tracker, let alone that you have any clue how you actually could prove foul play if it was there (actually a relatively simple and straight forward process).
Hint: the way you do it only proves that you do not understand the meaning of the word "proof".

Despite numerous people telling you that single hands or a stand alone statistics without comparison with what was statistically expected say nothing, you come back like the 20th time with single hand examples and stand alone statistics.

No problem if the maths involved is over your head, but you seem to think that you know better than anyone else. Can you explain why you think you can judge the significance of your graph better than people who actually studied the subject for years?

No, you will avoid the question and come back with another meaningless statistic and further prove your cluelessness.

That's fine, but only if you do not expect to be taken seriously by adults.

Poker 66 After years of batting my head against the wall , I came on here to see online poker either properly regulate or closed down. That did not seem to be an option so I decided to play only Live poker and Play Money Online. This weekend I placed first and second in MTTs for a $300.00 profit. When playing at these MTTs folks who have early exits , play CGs until the next one starts. I won $80.00 playing .25/.50 in about three hours. This is a fairly reg. trend for me so I think my game is at least competitive . I withdrew about $2000.00 from various poker sites and will only use play money online from now on. I never seen so many emails offering freebies to re deposit . I find very few offers when your money is on site but take it out and you will feel like a celebrity. One argument they give on here is you see more hands online and thus more donk calls, if that were accurate you would think playing a solid game you would be much higher EV over a long time. Never Happens . Good Luck arguing with these guys , you will feel like they have shares in the sites , when actually they need more proof as they cannot see the things you and I see with the online poker Program .

Even if just the first donk shoved and the others folded I'd still be calling. Because hardly anyone is playing AA-KK like that and I have blockers to both hands anyway. With the dead money in the pot already I'd be getting the right price to call even if villain had QQ, but as we can see, there's always the massive chance he's just a ****ing idiot who decided to spaz.

And you can't seriously suggest folding AK vs an idiot UTG limper, and 2 fish who flatted originally. They don't have AA or KK because of their original preflop actions, and I'm getting sick odds to call by the time the action gets to me. No, it's not a nailed on win, but it is a +EV play. Or at least it would be if I actually ever won any of these pots in these types of spots.

And sure enough, just as I thought, none of them had anything worth talking about.

And sure enough, 888poker decides to reward the biggest fish in the pot by having him flop the nuts.

With tracking software the term "countless" can be changed to "counted," and all your comments show is that you have quite weak post flop skills (and of course you can use HEM to research that as well).

Your complaint is common among donks who feel entitled to win whenever they get a "premium" hand pre-flop.

Good job following my advice and using selective memory as I suggested with your AK ramble, and do not listen to these other shills - keep working on your paranoia and beliefs!

All the best.

What nonsense. Let's say villain has 89o. Flop comes AT7r. Turn is a 6. Are you trying to tell me that 'post flop skills' will mean you won't be betting that turn against a fish? Come on now...it's pretty much the first thing you learn on this forum that when you make a TPTK hand against a station you need to bet multiple streets.

I feel 'entitled' to win my fair share when dealt a premium hand. Not all the time. But 'most' of the time, definitely. That's why they're called 'premium hands'.

This rigged **** never happens on Stars either. It's always 888.

You are allowed to bet fold.

We're talking about hypothetical hands here, but typically the fish will let you valuetown yourself for 2 streets then donk/checkraise the river. At which point you fold, yeah, but you've also put a fair amount into the pot by that point which means your winrate is taking a hit thanks to some idiot getting lucky.

Your posts are like outdated poker books and TV shows.


Dude, you are a newbie donk at poker. How you should handle the hand depends on the opponents, and I will not pretend to know the quality of play at the penny games, but you clearly have no plan for a hand when you play and you whine after when it does not go well.

You likely win much smaller pots than you can, and lose much bigger ones than you should, and you have no idea that that is even possible and I am happy that you will do nothing to fix that common problem among new players. I would suggest you analyze your showdown winnings with hands like AK/AQ and your non showdown winnings, but I am happy believing that you will never do that and will instead continue to whine about donks, not realizing that you sir/maam/other are one as well.

Stay on the course you are going, everyone else is wrong and you are right - keep at it!

All the best.

PokerPlayer66,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning...3Kruger_effect

Seriously. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Here's a graph of mine from several years ago (2007). Fortunately the nonsense that is all-in EV hadn't been invented yet:



That's about a 300k hand break-even stretch at 100NL from a player with an established winning history (ie; not you) at a time when the game was much, much easier to beat. You're a beginner player on a 15k hand break-even stretch that is easily explained by either or both of A) Your marginal abilities B) Variance.

Get over it.

If you can't, poker really is not for you. You ain't seen nothing yet!

(BTW - As bad as that graph looks, when I start winning again. Look at the downswing at around the 650k hand mark - That downswing is longer and for far more money than you 15k break-even stretch. And it is not in any way significant either. Particularly in context with the rest of the graph).

How the heck can you 'plan' for villain hitting his 2 pair or a straight on the river? Don't bet flop and turn just incase? Hell, don't bet river either, since you can't tell when someone has 2 pair.

Sometimes, hell, most times, you have to bet when you're not holding the nuts.If you have TPTK vs a station, get 2 streets of value at least providing the board doesn't turn ugly.

But then villain donks you on the river after the flush card hits or whatever. By this point, I've already put plenty into the pot, as I was betting while villain was calling down with a draw. Now I'm going to lose all that money I put in the pot. Why can't you see this is an unlucky situation which is not picked up by the all in EV line?

Does Pokertracker have a filter for 'ahead on turn but behind on river'? Would love to see how many hands I have that fit that criteria and then compare them to the times I was behind on the turn but ahead on the river. That would prove a rig was on.

Really.

You are past the point of helping yourself or being helped. You have convinced yourself you are being picked on and will now refuse to take any responsibility for how you play and what you lose. Uninstall the client and go play live (where you will decide there is a dealer that always deals you bad beats), on line poker is not for you.

It's actually more than a 500k hand break even stretch after hand ~112k. But hey, Mr. PokerPlayer66 is entitled to have a constant winrate and to always win when at the tables, his graph says so much more than yours.


Quod erat demonstrandum.

The fish are going to hit sometimes. You haven't even been on a major decline. They are going to call more at the micros. This means more beats.

I enjoy that you totally have no idea what I was actually talking about and you will stubbornly remain a nano donk on a site you believe is rigged. Keep up the good work and remember that you are always right and others with extremely more experience have no idea what they are talking about are always wrong. Quote more dusty concepts from your books as proof.

All the best.

P.S. Many videos exist which break down post flop approaches with regard to table image, opponents tendencies, position, texture of the board, bet sizing, planning for a hand etc, but I enjoy that you believe these are not areas that you need a lot of work on! Keep citing specific theoretical hands to validate your beliefs!

If only he could find a strategy forum that covered these concepts.