Quote:
Originally Posted by NFuego20
but with only 13k hands my biggest concern is that there just isn't an adequate sample size to be able to test anything in great detail.
There are certain tests you can do of course, seeing how often you hit flops in certain situations compared to expectation, but like you said your biggest concern is turn and river and obviously in those spots you're usually only going to see your opponents cards when drawing when they actually hit.
Another thing that jumped out at me, unrelated to the statistical analysis, was that you have a vpip of approximately 30. It may be different in limit, and it's possible that you're playing shorthanded,
There are certain tests you can do of course, seeing how often you hit flops in certain situations compared to expectation
Yes, I know that NL analysis is much simpler. That's the precise reason why I am more suspicious of sites rigging limit than NL. Limit holdem is still a goldmine - or should have been
- despite the decrease of popularity
Like I said, 13k is only a sample to test any algorithm on. The games are 95%+ shorthanded, so 30 VPIP is not too loose (maybe it is even too tight).
I looked into previous database (before May 2009, limits 2/4 to 5/10). The result is apalling: 135k hands, -8,5k.
Yes, I know, these limits are rake very unfriendly, but still... Put together, I have around 162k hands, since there are still 14k 5/10 hands from May and June 2009. Is this enough to base my analysis on?
Yes, I could test for specific flops. I suspect that aces fly on the board when I don't have them, I could probably test that with some degree of certainty. Another idea: test for Ax vs Ax situations when A on the board and being headsup. This situation is quite unfoldable in limit poker. I could also test for differences between limits up to 5/10 and higher. I had substantially worse luck in higher games.
Problem is, if they rig it, they rig it very smartly, so that it is hard to prove anything. FWIW, I was in the "they can't be rigging it" camp for over 5 years and I wouldn't have lost so much if I actually believed that they are capable of doing it. Of course it is laughable when someone posts a bad beat hand and says that it is rigged. It is equally laughable, though, that one should gather millions of hands of bad beats to prove that the site is rigged, since nobody could even stand so much bad luck. I managed to gather so many hands because opponents really play dreadfully (and well, I also never had to deposit anything after initial deposit).
FWIW: With rakeback and bonuses I am actually up in this period, so this is not from a losing player (overall). I just feel that I am not getting my fair share and it seems stupid to continue to play without even trying to analyse what is going on.
If anyone has any PokerTracker query that could help me discovering anything interesting, please let me know.