Oh god, I just saw that. Sometimes ali nejad really has some good lines, although he thankfully does keep commentary to the minimum.

I don't really like the guy from what I've seen on TV, but I think that you can't loose if your name is Brunson

+1 for ali's comment on the Hellmuth limping in with JJ lol. And this triptwelves character might be the worst poster of all time lol

Helmuth tilts the **** out of me.

Enjoyable episode, amazing what the straddle can do to the game, shame they didn't just make 1-2-400 game.

Hellmuth checking the turn with JJ's against Antonio was pretty horrible, he kind of deserved the 3 to roll off.

Well obviously he isn't hoping for a 2outer; he's calling because he's unsure. Of course Antonio could have a queen, and Mike is correctly thinking Antonio could be betting a lot of pairs or air on the turn, but that he is shutting down a lot of rivers.

Which is a very bad card, because this means that everything in Antonio's range with just pairs are checking behind a big amount (he could decide to bluff with small pairs playing the board though). But maybe even with KK-AA are checking as well (which, btw is never a good idea to rule out just because he didn't 4bet).

Anyway. Moreover, the 8 gives Antonio an extra incentive to shut down if he has Ace high (because he some showdown value against ace high and counterfeited pairs), and to not bluff with his air type hands because it's not that clear that Mike folds any pair or any ace here a good amount, which is hugely what he's representing.

Now, for Antonio to have air, he would have had to call 3bet with air and then floated against someone who's been playing like a very tight rock, and then double barrelled a pretty scary board (although admittedly scarier from Mike's represented perspective). Which Mike thinks is less likely than Antonio having a queen, which isn't that horrible of an assumption. Also, Antonio is calling with a hand like 89,78, A8 etc some amount too - so don't rule these out.

I don't like the way Mike played the hand, just pointing out some of your illogical reasoning.

this rarely happens but i actually agree with veil. that's a pretty accurate explanation of the hand and the flaws in trip12s logic

I was rooting so bad for a 3 or a 4 in that last hand Helmuth vs. Antonio...

We agreed on the Antonio QJ vs Mike AJ hand as well!

lol@ antonio calling PH a "nitty little girl''

From the looks of the preview Antonio bluffs Phil out of a pot shows him and then immediately starts to needling him about it? Countdown to blowup T-Minus one week.

I see what you're saying, but do you really think Antonio barrels the turn with a queen in his hand, nailing trips, or wouldn't he check back and expect a bet from Mike on the turn in order to not lose him? I would think so...
So...he most likely doesn't have a queen.

And yes, he could have 88, but once again, when his hand fills up on the turn, he wouldn't be trying to lose Mike. Also, it's pretty apparent he just doesn't have quads here...and Mike shouldn't really be worried about 88. It's one logical hand that beats him and there's about 30 illogical hands that don't.

I don't see Antonio calling a 3-bet very often heads up OOP against a tight rock with 78. You kind of threw that out there as a possibility but when you think about it...is it smart to call a 3-bet oop against a strong-looking repop to 4500? no....

I agree that A8 is a logical possible holding for AE here. But, as the hand boils down, when Antonio bets the river, this is the only logical holding for AE to have and with the price he was being given, if he can beat a lot more than can beat him, he should call.

Agreed that Antonio would check back ace high here. So, that means his range is even more polarized. He's either bluffing or has a boat, and when the hand is broken down there is really only 1 logical hand that he can have a boat with, A8, and also AA and KK would beat Mike which he so rarely has in this spot (considering he might check them back and not try to get river value from them).

You guys are spending too much time thinking about what Antonio could show down and beat Mike with, but not weighing heavily enough on what Antonio is actually likely to have.

lol @ checking behind small pairs. You really think he's just going to check back on the river playing the board after Mike checks to him, nearly begging for Antonio to bet him off the pot? The reality is pretty much the opposite what you said. The reality is that when the board double pairs Q's and 8's on the river, Antonio HAS to bet with ANY small PP, in order to not check and get beat at showdown by an ace-high or even king-high of the Mouth's.

A lot of you seem to be yes-men without any original opinions and assertions of your own.

Get in there, get dirty, put yourself out there and say exactly what is wrong with my logic.

If all you can do is say "I think that logic's wrong," you're nothing more than a brainless flag-waver and your post is pointless and completely unsubstantial.

This does not come from my brain and by posting it I, in no way, am saying I believe this, I was just pointing out the logic behind always putting someone on AK when you can't really figure out what they have. Credit or criticism is due to RunHot on bluefire

lol thats the dumbest thing I read so far. Why would he check a queen behind?? He has a loose image, thats what that is for, so you get paid out with your big hands. Whats the point in having a LAG image when you are going to slowplay your good holdings??

And you are spending way to much time simply ruling out a queen. Just because Mike called the turn means is ruling out 100% that Antonio has a queen? Please explain again why it is impossible for Antonio to have a queen in his hand.

This guys are painful to watch playing cg. Anyone up for a bet none of these guys built their bankroll playing cash game.

The point is, that if MIKE thouht Antonio had a queen, he wouldn't have called the turn bet. The only argument you can make for this is that he wasn't sure, and he was going to re-evaluate his decision on the river. But Mike tries his best to plan ahead and have a plan for each hand, and so calling the turn bet was presumably because he took Q's out of Antonio's hand. This is why I've taken Q's out of AE's equation, because Mike apparently did.
So, as I'm working through Mike's thought process, he made a decision pending AE not having a queen on the turn, so should be doing the same on the river.

Yes he pretty much had to rule out 100% that Antonio had a queen to call the turn. Otherwise, is he just sticking in stacks hoping for one of the 2 remaining J's to hit the river?

Also, I understand that betting your big hands as a LAG gets you paid. But against Mike, the player admittedly making the biggest folds at the table...it's another story. If Mike bets the turn and Antonio had a queen, this would be a better place to overplay a big hand, as Mike is showing more strength and even an overpair like KK or AA (esp. given the way he played preflop and flop.)

But, when Mike checks the turn, AE should probably figure that he doesn't want to lose Mike in case he's shutting down and could expect a bet from Mike on the river a decent % of the time and could get more value from the hand with that line.

WAT??? Antonio checking back trip queens or a boat in position on the turn instead of building a big pot going for max value.

And your comment about not losing Mike on the turn reminds me of Hellmuths reasoning, e.g. trapping. LOL LOL LOL

Antonio is going to bet a queen or a boat there 95% of the time. The queen is actually a bad card for Antonio to be bluffing because it makes him less likely having one. For that same reason Mike called the turn.

8 on the river in my opinion is actually a bad card to bluff because i can not see Antonio having any 8 in his range besides exactly 88 (highly unlikely). Antonio might call a 3bet with 8x but he is almost never betting the turn with it.

So it basically polarizes his range to either a queen or air. I think Mike should call but maybe I am a bit results oriented.

So, as I'm working through Mike's thought process, he made a decision pending AE not having a queen on the turn, so should be doing the same on the river.[/QUOTE]

Yeh but when it comes to calling the river I think he starts thinking about how much money he could loose (bit like the Ferguson hand)

1. stop making multiple posts

2. so you are saying you only call if you are 100% sure that you are ahead and also don't change your mind depending on the action on later streets?
Example: you flop middle pair, villain bets, you think its a conti bet and you call. Does that mean you would have to call an all in on the turn or river, because you called the flop?

Did it ever occured to you that Mike thought: "I'm gonna call him bc he might be bluffing, i just hope he shuts down on the river."

But I'm going to stop posting because you obviously have not understood the game of poker and chances are you never will.

Trip Twelves,

I was going to make a post pointing out some of the flawed logic you have, but your sheer number of responses to other posters scared me away. Veil nailed it pretty well. But, you definitely don't understand a few basic poker concepts.

For example, in one of your early posts you stated that Matusow 3 bet JJ to get 8x combinations out of Antonio's hand range. That is ******edly wrong poker logic.

Here is your exact post:

But wait Mike...you 3-bet preflop for a reason----to weed out any 8's from Antonio's range. You really think Antonio's cold calling out of position with an 8 in his hand for 4500?

First off:

Hold'em Simulation
325,337,760 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
JcJs 81.12% 263,131,284 1,544,976
8* 18.88% 60,661,500 1,544,976


Secondly, please pay attention to the hand. A) Antonio is not cold-calling. He was the original raiser. B) He is in the position.

These secondary points aren't as important because they just indicate you didn't pay attention to the hand or that you are throwing out terms such as "cold-call" when you really don't know what they mean. But the first part about trying to get combinations of 8x to fold by 3-betting indicates you don't even know why you are 3 betting hands such as JJ. I could go on, but that is enough.

Ok, but you seem to be forgetting, you're playing against one of the tighter players possible in cash games. Mike appeared to be shutting down the turn, and yes, when Mike is showing strength it is certainly the best move to build the pot up on the turn and bet the queen when you actually have it since it makes you less likely to have it.

However, it's a 5-street game and every hand is different. In this hand in particular, Mike seemed to be checking the turn with weakness, so maybe there is only value on the river...esp if Mike has AK and hits the river (given that Antonio would have a Queen).

The difference between good and great is recognizing the differences in each hand. I believe that in this particular hand, given the level of strength Mike is showing (something palpable, real, and valuable live that isn't online) the best move with a queen here would be to try and get value on the river...not on 3 streets.

No, I said Antonio would for sure bet his counterfeited hands if he happened to bet the turn with them. He would have just decided to float and turn into a bluff, so of course he would continue. This just goes under air hands though and is a tiny part of his range. And no, the reality isn't the opposite - many hands which Antonio calls flop, then values or bluffs turn with are now checking behind river. I already explained why.