Most absurd poker "thinking" you have heard in a live game? - Page 194 - Poker Card Room

If you pick three cards (e.g. 5, J, K), the odds of exactly one of them (actually one of twelve cards) appearing on the flop 42.4%.

The odds of exactly two appearing on the flop is 11.9%.

The odds of three appearing on the flop is 1.0%

The odds of none appearing on the flop is 44.7%

So if the bet is that you pick three cards and you get paid if at least one of them show up on the flop, then you're a 55-45 favorite (11 to 9). But if you only get paid if exactly one shows up on the flop, then you only win 43% of the time.

If the bet is that you win if exactly one shows up, and you lose if none show up (two or three is a push), then you're a slight dog (you win 42.4% of the time and lose 44.7; push 12.9%)

Huh?

Wouldn't the chance of any one of the 12 cards be 12/52 x 100?

Quote

05-26-2015 , 07:09 AM

#4828

jedi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 6,938

Quote:

Originally Posted by dogarse

Huh?

Wouldn't the chance of any one of the 12 cards be 12/52 x 100?

There are 3 cards on the flop.

Quote

05-26-2015 , 08:08 AM

#4829

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,830

Quote:

Originally Posted by dogarse

Huh?

Wouldn't the chance of any one of the 12 cards be 12/52 x 100?

Uh, no. The chances of the various scenarios are exactly as I stated above. What you have calculated is the chance of one of those twelve cards coming up when flipping one card.

Quote

05-26-2015 , 04:30 PM

#4830

eenvis

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,343

@State Casino in the Netherlands. Dealer that calls the clock on a player.

In defence: "Guys the rules say anyone on the table can call the clock on a player."

That happened.

Quote

05-26-2015 , 04:37 PM

#4831

Josh Reid

centurion

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 179

Quote:

Originally Posted by eenvis

@State Casino in the Netherlands. Dealer that calls the clock on a player.

In defence: "Guys the rules say anyone on the table can call the clock on a player."

That happened.

The dealer couldn't be serious, could he? What was the outcome?

Quote

05-26-2015 , 08:55 PM

#4832

eenvis

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,343

Quote:

Originally Posted by Josh Reid

The dealer couldn't be serious, could he? What was the outcome?

He was serious. Apparently it was first week on the job or smth. His superior had to come over and explain him...

Quote

05-26-2015 , 09:05 PM

#4833

sam1chips

adept

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 925

Quote:

Originally Posted by eenvis

@State Casino in the Netherlands. Dealer that calls the clock on a player.

In defence: "Guys the rules say anyone on the table can call the clock on a player."

That happened.

Haha I love it.

Quote

05-26-2015 , 09:31 PM

#4834

RussellinToronto

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 2,203

My home game (chiefly 5-10 limit O8 and stud8 and variants on the latter) can be wild and hairy, but is, I think, a lot of fun. However, I recently had a player, who used to play with us but stopped, explain why he no longer comes: "I can't play with you guys because the way you bet screws up the odds."

Quote

05-27-2015 , 01:17 AM

#4835

MTT_9797

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,429

I've seen an old lady sitting with $50 flat-call a $25 raise preflop with AK and fold to a shove. Her comment: "I know he has a pair and I don't know if my ace or king will come".

Last edited by MTT_9797; 05-27-2015 at 01:18 AM. Reason: I just sit there and wonder how her parents ever got laid

Quote

05-27-2015 , 08:49 AM

#4836

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,252

Quote:

Originally Posted by RussellinToronto

Doesn't sound absurd at all. Sounds like he was used to playing in a passive game where he felt he was getting a good price to chase and now the game has gotten aggressive enough that he no longer feels comfortable chasing.

Quote

05-27-2015 , 12:30 PM

#4837

klezmaniac

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,573

Live 1/2:

Cutoff raises to $7 behind one limper. Only the limper calls.

Action goes:

Flop: check, check

Turn: check, check

River: check, check.

Last aggressor shows first here, so it is on the PFR, who folds, and the limper takes down the pot without showing.

--klez

Quote

05-27-2015 , 12:32 PM

#4838

nit3.runn3r

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 8,294

Lmao.

Quote

05-27-2015 , 01:33 PM

#4839

RussellinToronto

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 2,203

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh

I can see that, but the way he said it suggested he thought the basic odds themselves were changed by a game with so much aggression.

Quote

05-27-2015 , 02:02 PM

#4840

Halcronus1

stranger

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 1

Quote:

Originally Posted by W0X0F

Pretty sure this math isn't correct.

Quote

05-27-2015 , 06:33 PM

#4841

kail0r

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,756

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

a few months back i had a guy tell my half of the table that he always played K5 because they were more likely to be on the flop.

how he came up with K or 5, i have no idea.

Lol. My mates and I do this all the time at the casino or when we play with new people. We rant about 47offsuit being the "most common hand" in poker. It's also the hardest to hit because it's likely someone else has it.

I had a dealer almost abuse me one time because he didn't understand I was bcc trolling him.

It's great for the image against those guys that take the game seriously but are still has because they think they are better than everyone else.

Quote

05-27-2015 , 08:10 PM

#4842

Carnivore

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,258

Quote:

Originally Posted by MTT_9797

I've seen an old lady sitting with $50 flat-call a $25 raise preflop with AK and fold to a shove. Her comment: "I know he has a pair and I don't know if my ace or king will come".

This is standard old lady AK strategy.

Quote

05-28-2015 , 06:32 AM

#4843

legionrainfall

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 654

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carnivore

This is standard old lady AK strategy.

How are you supposed to play this?

Quote

05-28-2015 , 06:35 AM

#4844

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by legionrainfall

How are you supposed to play this?

Call half your stack, hit, then call off the rest. Ldo

Quote

05-28-2015 , 09:15 AM

#4845

nit3.runn3r

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 8,294

I'd go all in?

Quote

05-28-2015 , 09:34 AM

#4846

ReidLockhart

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 7,771

Are we seriously debating what the right play is? This thread officially has lost its way. (probably back around page 2)

Quote

05-28-2015 , 09:40 AM

#4847

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,252

Quote:

Originally Posted by legionrainfall

How are you supposed to play this?

Is this actually a serious question?

Quote

05-28-2015 , 09:58 AM

#4848

browser2920

Niceness Influencer

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 6,525

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReidLockhart

Are we seriously debating what the right play is? This thread officially has lost its way. (probably back around page 2)

Yes, let's get this back on topic, please. I'm pretty sure there are a hundred or so How to play AK threads between the beginners forum and the low stakes strategy forum if anyone wants to continue that discussion.

Thanks.

Quote

05-28-2015 , 10:21 AM

#4849

albedoa

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 5,400

Quote:

Originally Posted by legionrainfall

How are you supposed to play this?

So meta.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precept2

Call half your stack, hit, then call off the rest. Ldo

This is correct but please no more lessons. It's eating into our profits.

Quote

05-28-2015 , 01:27 PM

#4850

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,830

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halcronus1

Pretty sure this math isn't correct.

It's absolutely correct, and I can show my work if you're really interested. I used to tutor math at Duke University (they paid me to tutor football and basketball players who needed some help). Probability and Statistics was one of the courses I helped with (along with Calculus and Linear Algebra). Pretty sure I can handle this simple problem.

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