A good winrate for 1/3 is HALF THAT.
A well above avg winrate for 2/5 is 30

Everything depends on the max buy in. When a game plays deeper in bb's, top players have more room to exert a skill advantage.

This thread is about long term sustainable win rates, not about building bankrolls and taking shots. 50/50 spots are fine to get into because more often than not, if you are good, you're the one doing the shoving not the calling thereby increasing your fold equity. This is opposed to tournaments where pure situational EV is must be weighed against overall tournament EV.

At 1/3 with a 400 buyin you should be able to make 30/hr if you are a top reg. Provably a bit under if its 300 buy in like most 1/2 games. But by the time you are sure that is your winrate, you would be at 2/5, where you can make 40/hr at a 500 buy in and 50-65/hr in a 1k buyin game. For a good, "serious about their game" reg, these numbers should probably be toned down 15-30%. Just stay hyper vigilant about analyzing and working on your game, optimizing every situation and mastering meta game concepts such as tilt control, game selection and time management and you can really help your winrate grow.

Ashinynickel keeps nailing this thread.

Max buy-in -- and how many bad players buy in for the max -- are two huge factors.

It's quite possible that a 2/5NL game with average stacks of 1k is more profitable than a 5/10NL game with average stacks of 1k.

if you can sustain 40-50$/h consistently at 2/5 then you pretty much don't ever have to worry about a job.

youll be making more then the avg American per year which im guessing
75-90k+ year

Play 1000 hours and find out. If your a losing player you will have a negative hourly. . . I would say if you are a solid player 30/hr-50/hr depending on how soft the games are and your skill level. Cant say you will make exactly this, but that seems to be the range you will bounce around at

I have over 1,000 hrs of 2/5 NL logged on Poker Journal over the past 10 months. Hourly rate is $47.21. I've had two losing months, and i also had back to back $10k months.

I imagine it would be difficult to keep games going if everyone got up as soon as they lost.

Rate of return is not an appropriate calculation of winrate. This isn't a tournament. Winrate is in big blinds per hundred hands, dollars per hand, dollars per hour (assuming 25 or 30 hands per hour).

All the guys who focus on how they do in a session (double up triple up etc.) are approaching the grind in the wrong way. Its all one big session. Sure you might have a few poorly played or well played hands, but don't be so results oriented about the outcome of any given session. In live poker you play such a laughably small number of hands per session.

With that said, if you tilt easily you should take breaks if you are downswinging or quit the session.

One of the most depressing things about playing live is that it takes a long time to get variance in the noise level. With 1000 hrs played I would guess you've played between 25,000 and 35,000 hands of 2/5. Variance is still a big factor but you can start to draw a few conclusions about well you're playing. Did you move up from 1/2 NL live? If so what kind of win rate were you achieving at 1/2?

I've been playing 2/5 for several years, but i've only been using Poker Journal for the past 1,000 hrs. The first couple of years, my hourly rate was around $35, which I calculated by using a pen and a pad. It's gone up quite a bit this past year, which i attribute to better play and more familiarity with the game. prior to playing 2/5, i played 1/2 on a part-time basis for a year at the most, and i couldn't tell you what my win rate was.

To answer the question of whether a 200BB stack increases risk of ruin, it depends. * ROR calculations are based on win rate and standard deviation. You'd have to know your 200BB stack win rate and standard deviation to know the effect. * My guess is that most people’s standard deviations will increase faster than their win rates as stack size grows, so you’d see an increased ROR, but it would be VERY minimal on a 15 buy-in roll. * The smaller your bankroll is, the larger the effect. * I’d guess in the example of a 15 buy-in BR at 9% ROR where you double up to $1k, it will not all of a sudden give you an 18% ROR. * It might be something like 9.5% or 10%, if that even. * Yes, you are risking 2 buy-ins now, but all subsequent buy-ins will still be $500 at (presumably) 9%. * In fact, it’s theoretically possible that your ROR could go DOWN as your stack grows. * If you’re playing against super-deep super-donks your win rate might grow faster compared to standard deviation as stacks grow. But seriously, ROR is fluid. * Every one of the relevant variables changes for every hand you put money into a pot, and can even change when you don’t put money into a pot (ie: if a shark just stacked a fish and sent him home your expected win rate just dropped). * ROR can never be a perfectly accurate number. If you trust your last X thousand hours of data to give you a reasonable win rate and std. deviation, the good news is that all scenerios that you’ve ever played in (including deep stack spots) is already averaged into the data. * And if you don’t have X thousand hours it just doesn’t matter, since any ROR you calculate is going to have a pretty large margin of error to begin with.

I understand that risk of ruin and buyin swings are a concern for those moving up in stakes to take shots but the OP is talking about 2/5 grinders (good ones specifically). If you're trying to maximize your win rate there is no way you should ever be concerned about those things.

This doesn't mean I advocate lag play for everyone if it doesn't fit their personality or comfort level. It does mean that it's certainly silly to be constantly thinking about your risk of ruin and having it affect your in game decisions.

Ok so we are saying that $50 is attainable for a good 2/5 player. Now what kind of game dynamic do we need for this? 9 fish plus you? Or only 5 fish and 5 "good" players?

$50 PER HOUR AT 2/5???

ummm maybe if your phil ivey and everyone else at the table is a complete fish

This is following BF. It's a 2/3/5 $500max buy-in game.


ya ya I know.......

What was the point of posting this?

I can run good and make $100/hr over a 200 hour timeframe...

Did ya see the "ya ya I know......" part????

ret

what? this is so ******ed. So is it ******ed to buy in to cover the drooler to your right?

Given that your a winning player, and everyones stack sizes are even (short stack/100bb/200bb or 1,000bb), you will have a higher winrate the deeper you play. The higher the WR, the lower the 'negative' variance.

So the 1,000 hour mark has hit. I have played about 50 hours of 5/10 this year and until this month I have lost a few thousand in my 5/10 shots. This month things turned around and I'm up 15k at 5/10 and 7k at 2/5. Over nine hundred and something hours of 2/5 I believe I was around $47/hr. I've compared notes with other top regs and I believe winrates over $50/hr at 2/5 are possible. But hopefully I never have a large sample at 2/5 and play 5/10 for good.

206 sessions:


Friday and Saturday FTW:


Also September is the nuts:

Congrats. Where do you play?

Can you export notes w/ this app? I use poker session logger for droid and it's great, but the analysis isn't anywhere near as good as this.

Philadelphia area casinos and AC.

You can export notes to excel and other poker tracking applications. To be honest Poker Journal is better than Poker Income Pro (what I use) but I'm too lazy to switch. Once I get a new phone I'll probably export and switch.

Good call

$80/hr over 400 hr sample is pretty impressive, congrats on your success. But I doubt anyone could maintain a winrate of over $50/hr over a legit sample of 2,000 hours(~1 year of full time play) in a 2/5 game with a $500 max buy-in.

Does anyone have over ~2,000 hours or more logged at 2/5 with a winrate of over $50/hr?

If you played that long, winning that much without moving up you are crazy. But I also remain skeptical that you can win at >$50/hr with $500 max at 2/5.

My local casinos have $1k max which makes such winrates possible IMO. River and turn spots are where the best regs can exert edges over bad and worse regs and those spots work better (or can only work) when you're deep. Obviously it's nice to cover fish for your big coolers and when you go to value town too.

Being a live 2/5 pro is really uncommon. You don't make enough compared to the opportunity cost of what you could be doing instead (given you are talented enough to crush). 2,000 hours isn't a year of poker, it's 3-5 years for most people. So I doubt you'll be seeing massive databases any time soon because the poker tracking apps and smartphones for that matter haven't been around that long anyways.

i have been using statking for years and before that an old notebook