You seem to be struggling with the fact I am asking two different questions and you keep giving the same answer to both.

You also contradict yourself yet again .

You declare you do not know how many 1's are in y, then persist in saying there at least 1*1 in y with certainty. You are quite clearly stating an answer as a guess.

2
2
2

In the above you have just stated there is at least 1*1. Do you maintain your guess in the below

?
?
?

There is at least 1*1?

Let me show your mistake too you , what you are doing.

I give the parameters of x = {1,2} , you can easily work out it is 1/2


I give the parameters y= {?,?,?} these are the results of x, they are no longer x. Recalculate for y please.

You keep giving the answer of what is the chance of any of the values in y being a 1.

You are not giving the answer to what is the chance of a 1 from y.

In this example, order of x can only be

1,2
or
2,1

Order of first card, y, can only be

1
1
1

or

1
1
2

or

1
2
1

or

1
2
2

or

2
1
1

or

2
1
2

or

2
2
1

or

2
2
2

Therefore as x can only be 1 or 2, y can only be 1 or 2.

Therefore as the chance of the first number in x being a one is 1/2 or 50%, (as you agree), the chance of any number in y being a 1 is also 1/2 or 50%, as, from any combination that turns up, there is only the possibility of twelve ones and twelve twos to pick from.

Unfortunately, until you understand that 12/24 = 1/2 = 50% = x/2x = 26/52, etc, (and it is the only reason possible for you not to agree), then you will never understand that your basic premise is 1/1 = 100% incorrect.

Instead of continuing with your confusion over the slightly more difficult calculations, you should be asking how fractions work.

(I think Bobo Fett told you this, earlier.)

Hi Mike, let me say I do not disagree with what you just said, I understand this.
What I am saying to you , is that there is two different ways of looking at this situation.
You are all ''seeing'' the first way, the way you just described. The second way is my way, from a completely different perspective and objectively equally as true.

At the moment I just do not think people understand or can visualise conceptually my second way. But believe me when I say I am physically accurate in my notion and it is objective facts.

Let me try it another way that at first may seem unrelated.


I have a row of boxes a-z we will label x

I have a second row of boxes 1-26 we will label y


What is the chance of c/y ?

What is the chance of 7/x ?

Do people still think he is not trolling?

Can you read? there is two different ways of looking at this situation

paradox
ˈparədɒks/Submit
noun
a seemingly absurd or contradictory statement or proposition which when investigated may prove to be well founded or true.

If you are not scientific minded , this thread is not for you .

You have a personal choice to just ignore the thread, if you keep posting posts like this, we know who the troll is.


A troll is somebody who disrupts a thread, who tries to take it off topic or post irrelevant posts.

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Ok, thank you for your answer Mike. Let me just have a think for a while of how to word the next question precisely to not cause any confusion.

@ Mike

I have a row of boxes a-z we will label x

I have a second row of boxes 1-26 we will label y

We will random shuffle x 5 times

We will random shuffle y 5 times

We will record the first value of each independent shuffle of x and y creating a set of results Z.

How many c's are in Z?

How many 7's are in Z?

What is the total amount of Z?

I have done no tests, only generated data.

But you're welcome.

I was thinking of adding an actual test - calculating the standard deviation (which as my other posts indicate, I'm horrible at) and determining any actual statistical anomalies in the results.

I may still do that for fun - but I'll need one of these math guys to help check my logic. I'm excellent at programming but my math background is very soft indeed. I never made it thru calculus (my own fault, never did the homework...)

I do have a test if you could please do it.

10,000 decks in a queue

They all get independently shuffled

How many ace diamonds are top cards .

Repeat about 52 times ?

You're wrong - both MD Live and Horseshoe Baltimore serve Pepsi and not coke so lots of poker players drink it because they have no other choice.

Since there are 4 name brand casinos in Maryland and I don't remember what MGM serves and I know Hollywood Perryville serves Coke, that makes the Pepsi availability in Maryland Casinos ?/4.

So you want me to make a queue of 10k decks (as I have been doing), and check each top card and determine how many A occur, and do that 52 times in total?

Easy enough...

Here you go

He is not trolling. I have off and on seen the same dude on the street corner downtown preaching about 9/11 for over a decade. Is he trolling as well? There was a guy who in winter would walk down the street with no shirt and a santa hat flexing his muscles and screaming at the sky as he walked. Good ol Zanta... Was he trolling as well? Well, ok, he claimed to be an "artist" after being barred from the city.

It is the same behavior, with pretty much the same underlying mental conditions. One guy picks wearing a Santa hat, another says 1/2 does not equal 2/4.

Zanta still does pushups 15+ years later, and this guy still talks about his personal math 15 years later. Zanta will keep doing pushups and this guy will keep talking ?/? for as long as others will talk to him. He will happily do this in this thread for years to come if others enable it.

It only ends when people remove themselves from interacting with them. For Zanta it was police orders, for this guy it will be being banned or others no longer playing/debating/engaging him. How long this thread keeps going depends on how long people engage this virtual Zanta. Very simple. No trolling involved.

Wow, thank you that was fast.

I get the average should be around 192?

They averaged 191 not much difference there back to the drawing board.


Second thought maybe that does give me my answer. I have Batch 1 - 196 Aces of Diamonds/ 10,000 to pick a Ad,


X= 1/52

y=196/10,000


y
10,000
.
.
.
.
.
.........................52x

192.3076923076 to be as precise as possible.

10,000 * (1/52)

Agree

Yes that is the result I got , how do I convert 191 back to a fraction of 52?

A mental block, call me stupid if you like lol.

Well if 192 is 1/52, then converting 191 to a similar fraction would be something like .995/52

Actually, if you're unsure, wouldn't it just be ?/52

192/10000 = x/52
x = (192/10000)*52

So to convert 191 to a fraction with 52 as the demoninator:
191/10000*52 = 0.9932/52


Dude this may sound a bit harsh but - look - *I* know that I don't understand probability and statistics very well - so if I have a notion about how it works that's wrong, I listen to the people who do know it better than I do.

You seem, however, bound and determined to ignore what you're being told by people - EVEN ME who's by no means an expert - about how probability does and doesn't work - and yet you can't convert fractions properly and don't even understand why 1/2 and 2/4 are the same thing.

You genuinely believe this forum has the first people in a decade who tried to inform him that he cannot even understand how fractions work, let alone how silly his theory is? When even the most patient gives up here, he will just find new people to have the same conversations with, just as this one likely started after he was banned/ignored on other sites.

If I was going to ask the OP a question it would be how many message boards/forums has he taken this position to over the last 10+ years. How many have banned him. An estimate given in whatever fractional form he likes (with no ?) for those answers would be accepted, and perhaps if he links to a past discussion that would help others here take his position forward from where he left off before!

No, Monteroy

I believe that having gone the extra mile to work with him on his experiments, and not having gone full douchebag on him as some have, he might be willing to listen to me.

I appreciate your efforts, I am not ignoring anybodies efforts, I am saying by using some physics , I can see it a second way . This second way is not the things you are showing me which I know already in basics.

If anyone really wants to try and help me understand, try first to understand what I am ''seeing'' then if you see it wrong after that, point out where my idea is flawed.

Aside from maybe Kelvis and at times me (and we were tame still compared to the BBV or the Politics forum standards) this guy has been treated very gently, given his general awkwardness in dealing with other people. Realistically he likely has a genuine mental medical condition, and this theory of his is how it manifests for him. Sad I suppose, but hardly unique, even if his specific obsession is strange. All obsessions like this are inherently strange.

You are being nice to him, but you are also enabling him. You are his nourishment, so he will be in heaven if you do hundreds or thousands more tests as he thinks of them. He will always find a new or second way or third way or fourth way etc. to think about this. Eventually you will have to cut him off, just as others are doing, because I assume you are not sharing his commitment to this agenda . At that time you will join the rest that he puts in the meanie category and/or the category of people he declares "agreed with him." That's just how his brain works, and after 10+ years of it, this thread is not going to be what stops that. He does not "listen" to people in a conventional manner, so when you, or anyone, tells him to listen to the experts, he counters with "you just need to see it as I see it, let me explain, and lets test xxx." He will do this to you for as long as you let him, so consider setting a cutoff on the number of tests you do for him .

That all said, this thread was an interesting read for the stats/math project in how several people approached and analyzed it, even knowing the whole theory was meaningless, and you contributed to that as well, so appreciation for that.

Maybe me? I think he's a full blown idiot and I hope he gets lost. Not intending to insult him but there is no way around saying it and also it saves people time from doing all this work for him. After which, he is just going to say you're wrong and you have poor math.