I've got a little project for anyone that feels so inclined:

I'd like you to post a range that you think a 18/13 with whom I have no history with c/shoves or c/raise with in this spot:

IPoker Network $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $84.58
CO: $200.00
Hero (BTN): $214.20
SB: $97.12
BB: $87.06

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with T K
1 fold, CO raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, CO calls $12

Flop: ($39.00) 7 9 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ...

Probably something like 88, 99, 1010-JJ, probably not calling oop with marginal suited hands so flushes are a pretty small range, AJ+ w/A of hearts is the most likely holding.

I play nowhere near these stakes, so chances are my answers are going to suck. I'm posting them nonetheless if only to compare my estimates with those of you guys.

Sets: most of the time, maybe they get tricky enough to donk out with them but probably not.
88: a decent amount of the time more often with 8h.
ThTx,JhJx: some of the time.
AhKx, AhQx: probably always.
Not much else.

This is a great flop to bluff the majority of villains range with. You're going to be betting here very often and there's only a few hands you can continue with vs a check/raise unless you know villain is FOS. Bet/calling TT-QQ will be pretty hard even if we have a heart. I think villain can lead here if he flops a set for protection but that's really player dependent. Some guys will bet/call and others will check/shove, but at 100/200nl I think we get led into more than we get check/shoved on vs flopped sets on monotone boards, but that's just ime. Really hard to make a good decision though because we don't know if villain is actually a good player or some breakeven multitabler. His range could be limited to just flopped monsters or monster draws and QQ, KK, AA, AKx, or he could do this with anything he flats you pre with which could be quite wide.

Given the flop he should only be c/c'ing a very small portion of hands, I think we get check/folded or check/raised much more often.

Grunching without checking responses. I'm going to say just about his whole range except overpairs with no heart.

Is this actually standard for a random 18/13 at 200NL. I hope not, or I have some work to do before I ever get to move up to there

I dunno I don't play 200NL or 6max for that matter. But if I was playing and a button who I feel is an aggressive reg 3 bets me and that board comes down I want to c/r it a ton. c/r'ing dripping wet boards should be profitable if he cbets most of his 3 betting range since he's going to be forced to fold or 3b bluff basically everything. This is an opportunity to really cut down his range while keeping ours wide.

I came up with a range of something around 3.5% (which is fairly similar to the range you suggested) of hands he's going to shove with. That was assuming he calls about 5.7% of hands oop to 3bets here. So, that'd be over 60% of the time.

Then there are some hands in his range he doesn't shove, that have us drawing dead already, although that's only like 0.2% of hands.

It's pretty big assumption that someone will cbet vs a 18/13 on this board a lot. I'm basically never cbetting folding in this spot.

Which also poses the problem of how he views you. For us to accurately give a range and play as this player we need to know what stats or reads he has on you as well no?

we don't have a history or many hand together. If he datamines, he knows I 3bet the btn around 10% and I cbet around 65% in general. I don't know how often i cbet in 3bet pots. Not the 100% that most people at 200nl do.

lol i was defo assuming this. In this case he obv can't c/r nearly as much. If he thinks you check this board back when you totally whiff or have some equity but don't want to stack off (I'm pretty sure these are the same thing on this board) he's likely going to want some sort of combo draw and still flat overpairs with no heart.

I'm curious as to why you think he'd prefer to c/c w/o a heart and c/shove with one. My tendency would be the opposite.

I think it's manifesting of my own nitty persuasion. If I have a pair with a heart I'd be pretty happy to get it in v you and have you table the hand you have. With a non heart pair I probably like my equity but I don't want to get it in here. There's value to be had on the turn. I can take a card and c/f heart turns and c/shove non heart turns (depending on the turn ldo). If you check back I'm getting a free river card and you probably didn't have a heart.

ffs I'm starting to think myself in circles. Let me come back to this after I grab a sammich.

FWIW if villian is a thinking reg this is a pretty bad board for him to c/r with air assuming the norm is to 3bet wide IP at 200NL. Your 3bet wide range hits this flop really hard(SCs, suited 1-2 gappers), so unless villian is some kind of really bad TAGfish or the gameflow is such that your image is bad or he's on tilt he'll have complete air here pretty much never.

AKx -> check shoving this all day.

77, 99, 66 -> check raise.

Overpairs -> possibly check raise?

It's a gross board, so I personally don't really like check raising any of the hands, fwiw. I'd rather lead with my sets and overpairs rather than have you check behind and leave me in the lurch with scare cards on the turn / river.

meh, we're playing different games obviously. I think youre assuming he's good or tight. The guys I'm talking about are not the 12/10 nits. I see bad LAG short stackers all the time. Most of the shorties at 25nl are really bad & loose. The poster mentioned the numbers were only over a few hands, so I'm rarely taking those numbers to mean thats what he plays at most of the time.

For people that think they should / he is leading sets on this type of board, what would your reasoning be that could justify calling a 3bet oop with 66/77 and then leading into me on this flop?

Seems to me, that to lead sets on this board you must think I have a very tight range and will value raise the flop most the time. if that's the case, it's pretty hard to play 66/77 oop vs a tight range profitably in 3bet pots.

If you don't think I have a tight range, how often do I spazz bluff a donk lead on this board?

Ok I meant to come back here last night but got super side tracked (see **** thread). I'm thinking Devin you are right c/r with non heart overpairs and c/c with one heart overpairs is better since we want to get more value with the hand that has more equity.

As far as leading sets I would have to think you cbet less than like 40% of the time on this board for me to donk lead. And if you are c betting that little you probably bluff raise very very little.

The fact that I don't have an answer to this is a clear indicator that I have no idea what I am talking about. LOL?

Continuing my theme of playing with donkeys:

Villain is 93/35, with a 35% 3-bet over 50 hands.

His range here is any two. His minbets have been both super strong, and middle strength hands. I haven't seen him half pot like he did on turn before.

Do you like this line?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $33.71
MP: $31.16
CO: $54.46
BTN: $25.00
SB: $24.15
Hero (BB): $25.86

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with K A
2 folds, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) 9 K T (2 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2.75

Turn: ($8.25) T (2 players)
SB bets $3.48, Hero calls $3.48

River: ($15.21) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

I'd probably raise the river. I think he rarely has a T here. I think he'll call with a K if you make is like 5-7.

I have such a hard time ranging guys like this... I just don't know what the hell they have, and I just assume they always get there by the river.

Here's another hand, same villain:


Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $24.54
SB: $82.10
BB: $25.00
UTG: $22.85
Hero (CO): $25.05

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with K K
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, BTN calls $1.10, SB calls $1, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($4.65) 2 9 A (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.65) 5 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $0.48, Hero calls $0.48, BTN folds, SB calls $0.48

River: ($6.09) 5 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20, SB folds

Yea, I'd probably fold the river. There's not a lot of busted draws he could have and it's doubtful he's bluffing two opponents that often. But, you are getting a great price.

Normally I'd just fold turn if he bet a normal amount.

It's so tempting to post results, lol.