Hi folks,

this should be my first post in 2+2 forums but I just finished reading the whole thread with interest, as I just started playing the 5,20$ turbos.
I do 20tabling sets and have played ~500don with 19% ROI (upswing?). But the play is actually so horrible that I guess 15% could be realistic (talk about limping in SB with <10BB, i see that sooo often).

Now I wanted to move up to 10,40$ but it seems like a huge leap from the 5$ because some regs actually seem to know what they are doing and how to play agressively on the bubble, so my ROI in 250 10$ at the moment is -2% which seems like a huge gap to the 5$s - but maybe its just a down I experience.

But I would def like to exchange some thoughts on moving up the DoN with other (10,40$) regs, especially how to adjusted pushing/calling-ranges to the more agressive regulars. So PM me if interested!

Greetings,
Jaroz

[ ] Large enough sample size at the $5
[ ] Large enough sample size at the $10
[X]Needs to read the FAQ about variance.
[ ] Should expect any PM about strategy when contributing nothing to the forum.

Agreed.

In his defense though Noodleman, he's got a pretty decent track-record for being a winning poker player, much better than average that's for sure.

It's funny how I had the mother of all downswings (that is, for being in DoNs) while being tempbanned.

Anyway, I shove the A6s pretty fast as the blinds hit you before they hit the other shorties.

Most likely, two of the three short stacks (yes, including you), will get eliminated prior to the money. If all three had even stacks and nobody else could get knocked out, then your equity would be 33.33% at this point. But as you a) have more chips than them and b) a biggie could get knocked down + out, your equity should be much more. Maube 40%?

Well, actually, ICM tells us that our equity is 45.68% when this hand begins, the smallest stacks have 36.81%.

So now we know what we have to risk by shoving. What are the gains? And how risky is it?

Well, the two shorter stacks will probably fold the very vast majority of hands, as their call isn't really going to deter the blinds from calling, and having you knocked out is pretty likely given that you shoved.

So what if you get called? Well, if called by one player, you should be a clear equity favorite. Now, doubling up doesn't guarantee a win in any way, but doubling through the bb (through the sb is obv better) moves us all the way up to 72.92%, which is pretty huge.

Also, at ~11bbs, the mid-to-big stacks will start giving you walks.

If you get called by both blinds, it's probably by pretty wide ranges - so you should figure to have about your fair share (ie ~33%) of the pot. Tripling up here is fantastic.

So, yeah. I'd shove. It's probably a bad idea to shove if the blinds are loose/bad.

i was thinkin about addin more tables

I think my answer depends when the blinds go up next. If we are likely facing a situation where the blinds go to 150/300/30 before our BB, this becomes an easy shove since we only have 3 more hands and we'll be the 1st shorty AI. If we can make it through the blinds before the level change, I still think we have to fold this hand because we have no FE vs the blinds and our hand is vulnerable.

Surely we aren't going to fold anything in the c200 bb, bar something unlikely and fortunate happens before then?

Very true. I considered A6s just outside of my shoving range (A7s is a shove) here. The increased equity if we double up though is enough for me to justify shoving. I found this to be really close.

Considering table position and everything else, I find myself shoving this. This is our last chance to shove and not go through the CL. It's that close for me.

Anybody else feel the same way?

Thanks for the analysis..Am i deep enough to be folding Qs here? if it were the bubble i would of folded, but was thinking i wasnt deep enough.


Poker Stars $100+$4 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds + t10 - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: t1405
Hero (UTG+1): t2790
MP: t1225
CO: t1610
BTN: t3115
SB: t3480
BB: t1375

Pre Flop: (t220) Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to t250, MP raises to t1215 all in, 4 folds, Hero calls t965

Flop: (t2650) 7 T 5 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t2650) T (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t2650) 7 (2 players - 1 is all in)

I like your line just fine -- I'm folding to a shove from CO, BTN, or SB -- but calling either BB or MP (but not both) unless I know they're only 3betting all-in with AA/KK. Your stack is healthy -- but since it is not the bubble QQ is too strong to open-fold (and not strong enough to flip with the other big stacks)

I'm not quite sure of the play here at $100 level, but I think you have to snap off with QQ here. Pot odds aren't that important but we are getting 1.75:1 which is significant. If we lose the hand we're back to square 1. I think the calling range is QQ+

I think the CO is opponent dependant. I would go with it if V was LAGgy.

Yeah, I can definitely see myself calling vs CO. MP has got to be a no brainer call really, unless you're really nitty and MP adjusts to this.

Poker Stars $20.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75/t150 Blinds + t15 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: t2315
Hero (MP2): t85
CO: t1940
BTN: t1030
SB: t1780
BB: t2095
UTG: t4225
UTG+1: t1530


...and I cashed.
Let this be a PSA, don't throw away your last few chips after getting crippled. I see people do it all the time, even otherwise decent regs.

LOL, nice recovery bro! God must love you. Had this once too with 150 chips. You beat me here ;-)

I want to go back on my last post where I said to fold this. If there's any chance SB will fold (I've don't know how plausible this is at $100s), we have to shove.

Okay, I got no reply otherwise - so I will just post some hands which I thought were critical for hopefully get feedback:


1. I am not sure this is an easy call considering my chip position?!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00+$0.40 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds 30 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t4105)
UTG (t1585)
MP (t1945)
CO (t1945)
Hero (Button) (t2980)
SB (t2440)

Hero's M: 4.73

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
UTG raises to t1555 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls t1555, 2 folds

Flop: (t3740) 2, 9, 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t3740) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3740) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t3740


2. Another questionable Call, but I see the BB fold there soo often, and then I become short stack at the table (looking back I'll probably fold this!):

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00+$0.40 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1465)
Button (t3220)
Hero (SB) (t1205)
BB (t2350)
UTG (t6185)
MP (t575)

Hero's M: 2.30

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J
1 fold, MP raises to t550 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero calls t425, 1 fold

Flop: (t1500) 9, 7, 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1500) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1500) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t1500


3. I guess I have to push here even if he calls atc, right?:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00+$0.40 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 40 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1400)
Button (t1970)
Hero (SB) (t975)
BB (t2635)
UTG (t5125)
MP (t2895)

Hero's M: 1.16

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 2
4 folds, Hero raises to t935 (All-In), BB calls t535

Flop: (t2110) 4, 7, 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2110) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2110) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t2110

Hand 1 I'd fold in a heartbeat. UTG probably isn't shoving THAT wide, and with the high blinds - sure each rotation'll cost you, but you're bound to see a few confrontations between your opponents before you're in jeopardy. You can go another 15 or so hands before hitting a critical spot - and this tournament is probably over by then.

Hand 2 is an absoluty must call, as you're crushing his range, can't allow him to steal, probably won't deter bb from calling by calling yourself and will live to fight on if you do lose the hand.

Hand 3 yeah I'd always push this. Should be ~50/50 do DU here, and there's probably some miniscule chance of getting him to fold too. Folding down to 735 doesn't sound too thrilling, when each hand you wait loses you another 40 chips, making it more likely to get overcalled when pushing. Also, nobody else should realistically be in jeopardy before you hit the blinds.

To illustrate the variance that is possible in DoNs -- here is my all-in luck for a 800 game stretch where I was either walking on water or could do nothing right. The net result was a 2% ROI (compared to what had been 8% ROI -- 20-tabling the $10s):




I think the main issue with variance in DoNs is that when you run super hot -- it doesn't do you as much good as in a 9man (where you would be finishing deeper/higher on the ladder). But when you run bad -- its crippling...

To be honest you haven't really had any downswings, it's all been positive variance and corrections of that variance. Your true ROI is probably 2%, this analysis confirms that. So you can expect a fair amount of variance. Try 10 tabling and I bet you make more $/hour.


EDIT:



This is my graph for the 20s.
Total sample 1512@7.6% ROI
Before red line 677@3.68% ROI
After red line 835@10.78% ROI

After the red line I stopped mixing 10s and 20s, got a HUD and cut down to 12-16 tabling instead of 16-20.

First, a "correction" after an upswing is still a downswing. You are running below expectation during that "correction."

Second, I'm pretty sure the points of my post went over your head. The jist is that a) there can be substantial variance in these games and b) positive variance does little for you in a DoN due to its flat payout structure -- but negative variance (or "correction" of positive variance) will hurt just as much as in a normal SNG.

Third, LOL at your psychic abilities to foresee my true ROI from a 1-week extreme variance stretch 4 weeks ago.



Cliffs:

1000 games is still a small sample size
variance may be lower than a 9man, but it isn't as low as some people in this thread claim (most of whom probably have more posts than games played)

That's good info. I still think 1500 games is on the small size, but definitely better than 1000. Since you have PT3 -- you might be interested in seeing what your all-in luck actually looks like:


SNG Luck (for PT3):
http://rapidshare.com/files/174844473/SngLuck-v0.2.zip

FYP

Lately I've been getting 3-bet way more often than I should. When we're far from the bubble and reasonably stacked, it's probably close to half the time. It makes sense, in a way. Opening 10% of my hands from LP, but folding anything less than QQ makes me easy to exploit. I've been thinking of ways to deal with this.

Tightening my opening range works to a point, but what am supposed to do with AJ or 77 in the HJ or CO, fold?

I tried shoving earlier, like with 12 BB stacks, but too many players are willing to flip.

I thought of using more 4 bets/stop-n-gos. I'm not sure that's a good idea, because of ICM.

I also thought of doing some light 3 betting myself, but again... ICM.

Yuck.

dblgutted,

I ran a different luck analyser which converts to ICM$. It suggests my true ROI is more like 6% over the sample, the same as the actual ROI before the line and 8% after the line. So assuming all other forms of variance being equal, I've still doubled my ROI by making better opponent specific decisions.