snap call

If his range is atc then it's an obvious reshove the issue is determining what his range is

Haha, ouch, at the time when he crippled me with his effing flush draw the thought did cross my mind that it was fate punishing me for not calling with AK earlier, the crazy things that go through a poker players head, or mine anyway!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

616,429,440 games 0.593 secs 1,039,510,016 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.819% 28.08% 14.74% 173097708 90852480.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 57.181% 42.44% 14.74% 261626772 90852480.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }


fwiw i dont even like putting AQ in his range at all

does anyone really think hed do this lighter than this?

Even though its only marginally +Cev to call here i think from a $EV perspective its very good to call. The value of having a big stack is huge (And I dont believe ICM really accounts for this) as you can play much more aggressively on the bubble and on the ft. To win donkaments you really have to call here.

umm. yes. I think plenty of villians are shoving over UTG's open with a much wider range than that. 99+, AQs+, AQo+ looks more likely to me. I mean, we have less than 30 bb avg at the table. Plus, with those awkward stack sizes a villain would not be happy jamming 34 bb over a 3bb open. Most would try to make that small 3 bet. But of course some villains will recognize how strong that small 3 bet looks and just jam KK+ to balance his range. But long story short, I think a small 3bet would have been scarier than the jam. Anyway...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,047,930,048 games 0.807 secs 1,298,550,245 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.652% 39.52% 09.13% 414180516 95654640.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 51.348% 42.22% 09.13% 442440252 95654640.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

if we take 99 out of his range and just take TT+ we actually improve.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

924,644,160 games 0.737 secs 1,254,605,373 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 359277240 95413566.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 374539788 95413566.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

30 bb deep I absolutely cannot find the fold button here. I'm not thrilled but this is the hand we gotta go with. Shove em.

2 other things i want to chime in here,

is that UTG's range is likely very wide here dude to his stack.

shovers range is much more likely weighted towards AJo than it is AA. and yes, they show up with AJo here, and worse, trust me.

Finally, there are more chips in the pot than needed to make this a call even against a fairly tight range

solid points

You have to call. I play quite a few tourneys and I am fairly certain that 90% of tourney players will never shove AA\KK there. Not that it's not an interesting play, it's just very unusual for anyone not to let the big stack think he has fold equity when you 3 bet. Flatting and pretending you have a small pair is also more common with AA/KK then shoving. Villain is fairly likely to shove 99-QQ and AQ AK in this situation, and some players AJ. most likely you're up against 88-QQ. But given the money in the pot you should call. You have an edge in the long run, and there are extra chips in the pot.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.753% 42.67% 09.09% 447119808 95219364.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 48.247% 39.16% 09.09% 410371512 95219364.00 { QQ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }

some of you are making this WAY more difficult then it already is, get this in please, you win this hand with a flip or say he is iso'ing weak with AQ (ya rite) our chances of shipping this thing ++++