Fifty50 strat/RoI Discussion - Page 13 - MTT Poker Strategy

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 5.3 Tournament, 60/120 Blinds 15 Ante (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1755)
Button (t1630)
SB (t2865)
BB (t1580)
Hero (UTG) (t4415)
MP (t2755)

Hero's M: 16.35

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A

, Q

Hero bets t360, 4 folds, BB raises to t1565 (All-In), Hero ???

Not too much info on villain. Probably a bit on the loose side as he had earlier raised UTG w/ 98o and called a shove from a very shortstack. More recently made a raise and folded to a shortie shove on the bubble.

First of all: I'd call!
Second of all: I don't have the tools at hand to give correct numbers on hand ranges right now.

I like the raise pre! Question is what was your intention of only raising and not shoving here (I am not suggesting a shove here). If I make that kind of play I would fold to a shove from MP and SB and likely call shoves from CO, Button and BB, depending on their PFR numbers.
The point I am trying to make is I usually have a plan how I will to continue with the hand depending on villains reaction before I raise pre. And I assume you do that as well.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 08:02 AM

#303

Doctor Poker

banned

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 525

PokerStars - $50+$2.40|100/200 NL (10 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: 680.00
UTG: 3,835.00
MP: 1,205.00
CO: 8,065.00
Hero (BTN): 595.00
SB: 620.00

BB posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, MP posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 100.00, BB posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (450.00) Hero has 9

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

MP is a happy shover, not much sense for him to shove anything less than a premium hand here though. I guess we could survive for another orbit when one of the blinds might just get blinded away before we do (after this hand their stacks will be SB - 495 and BB - 455), but do we really want to? Wiz won't analyze the hand so no point in bothering.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 08:32 AM

#304

Lythande71

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Poker

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

How much time until next blind level?

Maybe my old DON-Mind plays tricks on me, but I'd only go with a fold if there is certainly enough time left until the blinds raise and I would call if not. It would be too obv for the short stacks to stall ITM by letting you blind out.

BUT: I am only a micro stakes player.

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03-25-2011 , 09:40 AM

#305

Joshfan

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,751

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmbreslin

, Q

I suck at maths and analyzed this spot incorrectly. villain has to be shoving 88+, AJs+ or wider to make this a call.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 09:46 AM

#306

jmbreslin

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,286

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lythande71

Question is what was your intention of only raising and not shoving here (I am not suggesting a shove here). If I make that kind of play I would fold to a shove from MP and SB and likely call shoves from CO, Button and BB, depending on their PFR numbers.
The point I am trying to make is I usually have a plan how I will to continue with the hand depending on villains reaction before I raise pre. And I assume you do that as well.

Usually I do but I was a bit lazy this time. I was able to steal once per orbit uncontested so I kind of expected this one to get through too. I would fold to a shove from any bigger stack but here it is a question of risk vs potential reward of ending the game with a 3 BI stack.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 09:52 AM

#307

jmbreslin

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,286

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Poker

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

I probably fold. You're hoping for a coinflip given his likely range and your stack is so short that I think the loss of busting outweighs the reward of taking down the pot (you currently have a 1 BI stack; you'll lose the BI if you bust and you'll end up with a 1.5 BI stack if you win).

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03-25-2011 , 10:58 AM

#308

twistedbeats

adept

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 776

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Poker

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

how's this for a range for villain: 66+, a9s+, kqs, ajo+, kqo?
well, we're a very slight dog to that range.
Hand 0: 50.234% 49.60% 00.63% 606397620 7753104.00 { 66+, A9s+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 49.766% 49.13% 00.63% 600681228 7753104.00 { 99 }

however, i'd estimate our current equity as no better than 3/4 of a buyin if we fold. and since if we win, we'd be looking at a stack worth about 1.5 buyins, we have odds to call.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 11:25 AM

#309

jmbreslin

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,286

How can you end up with less than 1BI? You're guaranteed $50 just for cashing, even if you finish with 1 chip.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 11:33 AM

#310

fievel

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 384

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmbreslin

How can you end up with less than 1BI? You're guaranteed $50 just for cashing, even if you finish with 1 chip.

But you're not guaranteed to finish ITM.

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03-25-2011 , 11:39 AM

#311

Juve

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 108

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmbreslin

How can you end up with less than 1BI? You're guaranteed $50 just for cashing, even if you finish with 1 chip.

he probable mean that hero will cash 3 of 4 times in long run if fold

Quote

03-25-2011 , 11:41 AM

#312

Juve

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 108

Quote:

Originally Posted by twistedbeats

so in long run is better to risk and call with 50% of chance to win 1.5BI than fold and win 3 of 4 time 1 BI?

Quote

03-25-2011 , 11:42 AM

#313

Lythande71

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmbreslin

How can you end up with less than 1BI? You're guaranteed $50 just for cashing, even if you finish with 1 chip.

Ending with 1 chip is less than 1 BI due to rake which is approx. -4.8% ROI

Quote

03-25-2011 , 01:28 PM

#314

jmbreslin

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,286

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lythande71

Ending with 1 chip is less than 1 BI due to rake which is approx. -4.8% ROI

Right but still much higher than 75% of a BI. And in this case he's not sitting with one chip, he currently has enough for ~1 BI.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 01:31 PM

#315

jmbreslin

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,286

Quote:

Originally Posted by Juve

so in long run is better to risk and call with 50% of chance to win 1.5BI than fold and win 3 of 4 time 1 BI?

Assuming 50% is accurate, it's six of one, half dozen of the other, isn't it?

Quote

03-25-2011 , 04:00 PM

#316

johnniewalk

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 63

Quote:

Originally Posted by twistedbeats

This is a Fold IMO.

as stated before its a flip to win 1.5 initial stack.
lets say we call and win, we wont have great table position to chip up due to the the chip stacks at the table and where they are positioned.

if we would have optimal conditions, like the big stack to right and mid stacks to left...then it would be close but probably still a fold.

better to fold and try to get the 1BI back.

Quote

03-25-2011 , 04:52 PM

#317

iluvsheesh

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 273

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Poker

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

Uhh.. Wiz will give you some info on this hand although you have to trick it a little. Try setting the ranges for SB and BB to very tight(which they'd cetainly be if hero calls). From Wizard analysis and graph you can generate this is a clear fold. You can only call if villain is pushing about 90% of all hands.

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03-26-2011 , 01:44 AM

#318

tiltzfk

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 588

[QUOTE=Doctor Poker;25628410]PokerStars - $50+$2.40|100/200 NL (10 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: 680.00
UTG: 3,835.00
MP: 1,205.00
CO: 8,065.00
Hero (BTN): 595.00
SB: 620.00

BB posts ante 25.00, UTG posts ante 25.00, MP posts ante 25.00, CO posts ante 25.00, Hero posts ante 25.00, SB posts ante 25.00, SB posts SB 100.00, BB posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (450.00) Hero has 9

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

i'd snap call this so fast. i would rather risk the 50%battle than nit cash

Quote

03-26-2011 , 02:22 AM

#319

johnniewalk

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 63

[QUOTE=tiltzfk;25644667]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Poker

fold, MP raises to 1,180.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero

i'd snap call this so fast. i would rather risk the 50%battle than nit cash

snap call... the cool kids are doin it.

So you snap call this hand and win the flip--->back to a little over starting stack

then the next hand is up, are you going to shove into the guy in the BB who has 3200?

No. You are just going to fold your way to a nit cash anyways.

Snap calling may sound better than nit cashing, but even if you win the flip you are still nit cashing.

Quote

03-26-2011 , 02:29 AM

#320

iluvsheesh

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 273

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiltzfk;25644667[b

i'd snap call this so fast. i would rather risk the 50%battle than nit cash

You can't be successful at poker by having preconceived notions like this.
Your best overall results will come from trying to analyze what the right play is(equity-wise). While this is not always possible, in this specific case I think it is(see my post earlier in the thread).

Quote

03-26-2011 , 09:43 AM

#321

jmbreslin

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,286

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnniewalk

Snap calling may sound better than nit cashing, but even if you win the flip you are still nit cashing.

That's the point I was trying to make earlier, there is a point at which your stack is so small that doubling through still isn't worth the risk of busting out. At that point it's often better to just turtle and hope to sneak into the money.

Quote

03-26-2011 , 09:53 AM

#322

TequilaFTW

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 3

What hud stats do you guys use for fifty50?

Quote

03-26-2011 , 12:54 PM

#323

iluvsheesh

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 273

Quote:

Originally Posted by TequilaFTW

What hud stats do you guys use for fifty50?

I vacillate between one line of M,player name,#hands,VPIP and no HUD at all
For me, I find that even one line tends to clutter up the table in a 10-man format.

Quote

03-26-2011 , 01:37 PM

#324

Lythande71

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 147

Quote:

Originally Posted by TequilaFTW

What hud stats do you guys use for fifty50?

I use two lines.

1st) VP$IP, PFR, AF, #hands [over all collected hands]
2nd) VP$IP, PFR, #hands, notes-icon [only hands for current blind phase]

to simplify things I just grouped blind levels into 3 phases. Low blind phase BB<=60, mid blind phase BB<=150, high blind phase BB>150.

This way I have a decent read for both
a) players I haven't played a lot
b) regs for which I have collected enough hands so that line 2 provides a better read on them

And pls, dont ask me how to define the 2nd line. Its quite a bit configuration work and does not belong in this thread