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14k KO Guarantee AK spot 14k KO Guarantee AK spot

11-05-2009 , 03:58 PM
Down to about 110 payout is 90, villains have been pretty active.... Similar action the hand right before this one...

The converter is messed up villain 1 (with 30k) is utg+1 other villain is mp1 (with 54k), hero is mp2.

Is this a fold? Should I just call this in the future and see a flop? Should I 3 bet light. A ton of help would be great. I hate being in those spot.

If I fold I'm below chip average (30k), if I win I'm chip leader.

Results after a few responses.

Full Tilt Poker $14,000 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds + t100 - 8 players - View hand 355290
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: t54632 M = 27.32
Hero (BB): t33938 M = 16.97
UTG: t16289 M = 8.14
UTG+1: t13465 M = 6.73
MP1: t35972 M = 17.99
MP2: t28479 M = 14.24
CO: t27326 M = 13.66
BTN: t30560 M = 15.28

Pre Flop: (t2000) Hero is MP2 with A K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2400, MP1 calls t2400, Hero raises to t13000, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to t30460 all in, MP1 calls t28060, Hero ?????
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:22 PM
If you decide to 3bet,
u can't fold anymore I think.
Its not a decent spot to do so, but ill get it in here
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:24 PM
we are so fked in the ass here
fistpump fold and im happy about it

Last edited by Recteur; 11-05-2009 at 04:41 PM.
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by idog519
Down to about 110 payout is 90
Don't let this make u play scared, play to win.

pokerstove it but i think you have the right price to call.
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:35 PM
MP2 almost never flats as strong as that and utg+1 can shove his entire opening range as hero can be squeezing with a lot.

its also 17k more to win 70k so pokerstove it but i think you have the right price to call
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:42 PM
it might be slightly slightly slightly cEV if they both had exceptionally loose ranges but other than that we are so often so hugely behind
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:43 PM
[QUOTE=sjp507;14327601]MP2 almost never flats as strong as that and utg+1 can shove his entire opening range as hero can be squeezing with a lot.


+1


But, Recteur is right, we might be f'cked in the ass here...


Anybody else?
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:44 PM
If it's slightly cEV is it worth the call to take the chip lead here?
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-05-2009 , 04:44 PM
that hero squeeze ur talking about would also be very exceptional with two early participants with a UTGraise in the pot on the bubble
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 08:17 AM
why are the answers here so polarized after we 3bet?
we have a A and a K and no way we can 3bet/fold here ever

we are MP2: t28479 M = 14.24 and put 13k in preflop and get shoved on by 2 guys

i prolly just shove pre and dont think twice about it.
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 08:29 AM
I dont really get the HH, seems like pos are messed up. Do I get it right and we have to call 17k ? to win a million ? and we have AK ? wtf ?
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by idog519
UTG+1: t13465 M = 6.73


Pre Flop: (t2000) Hero is MP2 with A K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2400, MP1 calls t2400, Hero raises to t13000, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to t30460 all in, MP1 calls t28060, Hero ?????
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by furo
why are the answers here so polarized after we 3bet?
we have a A and a K and no way we can 3bet/fold here ever

we are MP2: t28479 M = 14.24 and put 13k in preflop and get shoved on by 2 guys

i prolly just shove pre and dont think twice about it.
i really dont agree with you here. this is a given fold regardless of odds as long as they are not awesome
its the bubble and we have a healthy stack left
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Recteur
i really dont agree with you here. this is a given fold regardless of odds as long as they are not awesome
its the bubble and we have a healthy stack left
1)the odds are awesome
2)3bet/fold is burning money, rather keep your stack (ie overcall or fold) for after bubble play if you dont want to call a shove.
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 09:59 AM
If i read the HH right, this is a fold. I know we have AK but we are behind a ton here.
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:01 AM
man up and call...have a plan when we 3 bet

Quote:
Originally Posted by BarryLyndon
You must let go of that poisonous combination of fear and hubris that makes you think that you are about to do something special with AK by folding preflop.

You are not a world class surgeon with the cards. You cannot dissect AK any further. You will not find a theoretical breakthrough for folding AK in a small stakes, non-satelite online tourney almost ever. Numerous Small Stakes tourney theoreticians have tried before. In fact, about one tries every day. It always fails. It fails as hard as communism or Coke Zero. Except, communism always makes for a better read.

You are not a magician. If you fold AK, your online chips will not transpose themselves from the computer screen to your desk moments later and unravel like flowers in bloom, only to reveal sheaths of gold.

You have AK with an M of 8 - ??. There's a push in front of you with an M of 10. There's another call with M of 15. . It's late. It's early. Your dreams of making a final table are only one and a half hours away. And there's a break coming up! It's a +EV play to push here. That's all it is. +EV. That's what poker is: EV moves. Deal with it.

You're pyschology or greater wants mean nothing. All that matters in the end is the "long run" promise of cEV. Chips only translate to more potential returns if you play them correctly. Please think about this.

Barry
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:03 AM
quoting OP:

hero is mp2.
MP2: t28479 M = 14.24

Pre Flop: (t2000) Hero is MP2 with A K
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2400, MP1 calls t2400, Hero raises to t13000, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to t30460 all in, MP1 calls t28060, Hero ?????

~15k to win > 90k with AK
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:07 AM
if hero is ever even contemplating a fold here his 3bet size should / must be way smaller than the bet he actually made.

call now and be happy about it
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by furo
~15k to win > 90k with AK
This thread is a level right ?

so we need what ? ~17% to win ? and ppl think about folding ?
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Stro_Sho
This thread is a level right ?

so we need ~14% to win and ppl think about folding ?
must be, yea
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:18 AM
and yea it can be possible to 3bet/fold AK but certainly not with the stacks as they are.
14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Stro_Sho
This thread is a level right ?

so we need what ? ~17% to win ? and ppl think about folding ?
Yeah but when you're beat you're beat etc. etc. etc.

14k KO Guarantee AK spot Quote
11-06-2009 , 10:22 AM
your ninja edit was not successfull
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11-06-2009 , 11:19 AM
am i crazy? how can you 3bet and fold? and forget the three bet ,im 3 bet shoving this all day ...
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11-06-2009 , 11:29 AM
Really easy call. We're priced in even if they flip up KK and QQ before we call.
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