10,000- A Lot of Random Thoughts
02-04-2011
, 04:54 AM
A Forewarning: I was never a fan of trying to sound cool on the internet in terms of writing like I am in an English class, I may misspell **** but ill make sure it doesn't deter from the reading.
Variance:
This is probably a dead horse by now in the 2p2 MTT world but its always good to be reminded. MTTs are brutal, they are not meant for everybody as it takes a very special and borderline masochistic mind state in order to want to grind these day in and day out. Many grinders complain day in and day out about how the run bad overall, this is a bad sign. Im not talking about:
"ajsdbnkasng;sadgnas;dgkln
asdjnaj;kngas;ngsad;gsja
Got 10th in Sunday Milion AA<A7o for CL
asjdngjsngd;dkfhgn ;khn"
Nobody expects you to take bad beats deep and be like, well that was fun than go spank it to some asian gang bang video. But if everyday you find yourself in skype cahts tlaking about how you run worse than any reg and posting hands were you take a small beat at 15/30 in a std spot and chat tilting, than maybe you should consider avoiding MTTs.
In terms of actual variance in the final few tables and especially final table of donkaments you have to make sure you realize what it is that is happening. Too many people expect to get t3 every time they final table, now there are obvious ways to increase the chances of getting t3 deep like:
- Play better
- Play worse people
- Do better final 27 down
The middle is basically unimportant because you cant choose your opponents deep. But the other two are somethng you can work and actually go hand-in-hand a decent amount. When you are approaching a final table, especially when you are playing micro-mid stakes, where most people in the final 27 are probably drowning their mouse in sweat getting anxious and hoping to not get "donked". You need to exploit these people, spot people who dont have a lot of deep runs and exploit them as they will tighten up 95% of the time. A couple more tips:
- See more flops IP
Lately there has been a lot of advice in terms of 3 betting light deep and exploiting people. 3 betting light is a very good strat in a lot of spots, but there are other ways to exploit people, you dont necessarily have to risk a 3 bet size and bloated pot to get the same chips. You can "float" pre flop with speculative hands that can flop well but also dont get you in too many tricky spots with marginal holdings where your opponent can have a better hand.(Suited connectors are obv the best case but even hands like K8s can play well).
Flatting and betting 33% -40% on a lot of flops checked too has a lot of merit, you can also raise flops that make it hard for him to call or that hit your range and require c bets a lot from him.
- UTG+1 is the nizzles
There has been a movement of raising light from UTG cause people respect UTG raises. But the difference between UTG and UTG=1(and almost UTG+2) is very minuscule, but one major benefit of UTG+1 is not only the 1 less person but a lot of regs respect UTG+1 more, so basically its the same thing as UTG but the "movement" hasnt gotten to UTG+1 yet.
- Dont be a hero
If you are in a soft MTT deep with liek 50% fish left, than dont be a hero and try to 4 bet the regs light(not meaning never, sometimes there are good spots). People usually associate bumhunting with cash games and maybe stuff like HU SnGs but just becuase you cant choose your opponents in MTTs doesnt mean you should try to exploit the weak spots. Play these people IP, dont try to 3 bet a calling sation light thinking you can take it down a decent amount with a flop c-bet, just play IP keep small pots and stack when you hit. If you dont hit, just exploit them ass aggressor. Raise a lot, avoid trying to be a big hero with calls and re-raises against the regs and you should be able to easily build a nice stack to abuse the final table bubble.
- EVERYONE KNOWS ICM
This might seem weird to read, but its true, in MTTs everyone knows ICM regarding final table bubble, whether they know it exactly or even know its called ICM they feel the effect of the final table bubble. If you are in a position to abuse do it. There have been numerous times with 10 left where i had been CL and riased every hand opened to me on bubble, not becuase i like throwing my weight around, but because every spot was a +EV spot to raise. Dont be afraid to msucle people around even if you risk a decent % of your stack, if you are putting in volume you will get there enough to where this advantage of gaining 10BB+ almost every final table bubble.
FUN WITH HEM!
People really use tracking programs to review or spot leaks in their game in MTTs, and for that reason I am not entirely sure this section will make any sense but ill give it a go.
Those are my stats for all blind levels of 800BB+ and more than 4 players seated.(Not all hands but the ones in my new database which is probably half of all my MTT play but almost all of my Midstakes+ MTT play) This is where AVG stack in most cases is around 25-35 BBs and there are a few of <15BB stacks at most tables.(in before lol you run good....lulz)
By Position:
Stack Size:
<16
16<BB<30
30BB<
What to gather from all of this:
- I run good lololol, sort of(its more complex than BB/100 but meh)
- Aggression pays
- Restealing is the nuts
- Most of your time should be spent with more than 16 BBs, and in fact the highest percent should be spent with more than 30 BBs
Now I know there are multiple ways to start a fire, and I am far from playing optimally, but there is a ton of merit to playing to build a big stack by playing aggressive and taking risks that pay off long term. the more chips you have getting deep, the more you can exploit the final two tables which is the biggest difference between a lot of meh regs and some of the better regs. If you notice shaun deeb sweat threads, probably around 50% of the time he comes in top 3 in chips, maybe even higher, this is true with many of the top players you guys look up to. They are playing to win, and they will take gambles final two tables if it helps them improve their fEV(futureEV). Future EV is often overlooked, but it is very important. This is why you dont break up a resteal stack to call light, you dont fold a marginally -EV hand if you are going to lose out on your fold equity soon. Every action in the universe has an effect, if you fold now that will effect what you can or can not, do or dont do down the road, and you need to factor in your future decisions.
From the stack sizes distribution you can tell that I play more flops as a >30BB stack(3 betting a tad less), shove more as a short stack. I also open a lot less from mid stacks if its going to start to cost me FE in reshove spots.
I am sure there are a lot of other things I can conclude from this stuff but without more peoples stats to compare it to it is sort of pointless cause although i have a feeling i really dont know what a high cbet % is or a high WTSD% or whatever. If somone wants to PM me their stats or post ITT that would be appreciated so we can compare and maybe help some more people.
The Future of MTTs
I only play part time cause I go to college and only play during winter break(january) and summer (Jun-Aug) so it sucks cause i keep coming back sort of rusty and miss out on all of these cool things people are doing now a days. Like for example the other day someone had to explain to me what "merging" was. Not to say i didnt do any merging, cause after learning it I def do it a frequent amount, but I was unfamiliar that it had a term.
But one thing I can confidently conclude IMO is that of all the forms of poker MTTs will dry up the last and in fact will have very little change over the next year or so. This is for two reasons:
- Big scores attract fish
- A lot of people cant handle the grind of a full MTT Schedule day in or day out
But with that said, right now I still recommend that people learn some other form of poker. Even learning 180s(i know 180 regs hate it when people recommend good players to start grinding them). But find some lower varicne form to supplement your play. Whether its low stakes cash, HU sngs, or NL Badugi, i really dont care but find something that allows you to make decent side income. You can grind a full schedule of MTTs 3 days a week and the others just play low variance poker and you will def be more "refreshed" everytime you grind MTTs as you wont get robotic and tired of it.
Backing
If you can afford to play an AVG stake of 15$ on your own and are offered an AVG stake of 30$ backed, take the 15$, sure you might get to play the 109 or 162 or whatever every day, but having 100% of 100$ ROI at 15$ is better than 50% of a 70% ROI at 30$ ABI.
Now there are merits to getting backed even if the above is true, if you play better with backing or maybe there are good opportunities to move up with the backer. But everyone that is backed should reevaluate their backing, maybe you would be better off putting your ego aside and playing 30s< on your own than 162s< backed. But only you can make that decision.
Dont Get Complacent
I posted about this in my 5k post but it still applies, keep on working on your game, I have been playing some Sngs recently and it reminded me of this. So many regs just grind out a 5% ROi when the top regs are making 10-12% and I wonder why, and its because they are complacent. They are contempt with the money they are making and are maybe under the "If it aint broken dont fix it" mentality. But in poker your mentality is "I am always broken, what can I fix". Nobody plays optimally 100% of the time, its a fact, but we can strive for our best game the highest % of the time we can get.
I suck at Poker- Things I touch turn into gold
This is probably the least helpful section but I have mentored one person(through a MTT section mentor/mentee thread) and coached one person at MTTs, and now both of them have more profit than me...fml
** You guys can ask me questions and this can be a minwell I guess**
I was planing this post for a long time and by planning I mean i have waited a long time after my 9999 post to type this but just typed it all in the last hour and a half or so.
Also no way I can make a 10kth post without the following trolling:
DONT READ IF YOU DONT WANT TO SEE ME TROLLING SOMEONE:
Later,
Cody Custer
Variance:
This is probably a dead horse by now in the 2p2 MTT world but its always good to be reminded. MTTs are brutal, they are not meant for everybody as it takes a very special and borderline masochistic mind state in order to want to grind these day in and day out. Many grinders complain day in and day out about how the run bad overall, this is a bad sign. Im not talking about:
"ajsdbnkasng;sadgnas;dgkln
asdjnaj;kngas;ngsad;gsja
Got 10th in Sunday Milion AA<A7o for CL
asjdngjsngd;dkfhgn ;khn"
Nobody expects you to take bad beats deep and be like, well that was fun than go spank it to some asian gang bang video. But if everyday you find yourself in skype cahts tlaking about how you run worse than any reg and posting hands were you take a small beat at 15/30 in a std spot and chat tilting, than maybe you should consider avoiding MTTs.
In terms of actual variance in the final few tables and especially final table of donkaments you have to make sure you realize what it is that is happening. Too many people expect to get t3 every time they final table, now there are obvious ways to increase the chances of getting t3 deep like:
- Play better
- Play worse people
- Do better final 27 down
The middle is basically unimportant because you cant choose your opponents deep. But the other two are somethng you can work and actually go hand-in-hand a decent amount. When you are approaching a final table, especially when you are playing micro-mid stakes, where most people in the final 27 are probably drowning their mouse in sweat getting anxious and hoping to not get "donked". You need to exploit these people, spot people who dont have a lot of deep runs and exploit them as they will tighten up 95% of the time. A couple more tips:
- See more flops IP
Lately there has been a lot of advice in terms of 3 betting light deep and exploiting people. 3 betting light is a very good strat in a lot of spots, but there are other ways to exploit people, you dont necessarily have to risk a 3 bet size and bloated pot to get the same chips. You can "float" pre flop with speculative hands that can flop well but also dont get you in too many tricky spots with marginal holdings where your opponent can have a better hand.(Suited connectors are obv the best case but even hands like K8s can play well).
Flatting and betting 33% -40% on a lot of flops checked too has a lot of merit, you can also raise flops that make it hard for him to call or that hit your range and require c bets a lot from him.
- UTG+1 is the nizzles
There has been a movement of raising light from UTG cause people respect UTG raises. But the difference between UTG and UTG=1(and almost UTG+2) is very minuscule, but one major benefit of UTG+1 is not only the 1 less person but a lot of regs respect UTG+1 more, so basically its the same thing as UTG but the "movement" hasnt gotten to UTG+1 yet.
- Dont be a hero
If you are in a soft MTT deep with liek 50% fish left, than dont be a hero and try to 4 bet the regs light(not meaning never, sometimes there are good spots). People usually associate bumhunting with cash games and maybe stuff like HU SnGs but just becuase you cant choose your opponents in MTTs doesnt mean you should try to exploit the weak spots. Play these people IP, dont try to 3 bet a calling sation light thinking you can take it down a decent amount with a flop c-bet, just play IP keep small pots and stack when you hit. If you dont hit, just exploit them ass aggressor. Raise a lot, avoid trying to be a big hero with calls and re-raises against the regs and you should be able to easily build a nice stack to abuse the final table bubble.
- EVERYONE KNOWS ICM
This might seem weird to read, but its true, in MTTs everyone knows ICM regarding final table bubble, whether they know it exactly or even know its called ICM they feel the effect of the final table bubble. If you are in a position to abuse do it. There have been numerous times with 10 left where i had been CL and riased every hand opened to me on bubble, not becuase i like throwing my weight around, but because every spot was a +EV spot to raise. Dont be afraid to msucle people around even if you risk a decent % of your stack, if you are putting in volume you will get there enough to where this advantage of gaining 10BB+ almost every final table bubble.
FUN WITH HEM!
People really use tracking programs to review or spot leaks in their game in MTTs, and for that reason I am not entirely sure this section will make any sense but ill give it a go.
Those are my stats for all blind levels of 800BB+ and more than 4 players seated.(Not all hands but the ones in my new database which is probably half of all my MTT play but almost all of my Midstakes+ MTT play) This is where AVG stack in most cases is around 25-35 BBs and there are a few of <15BB stacks at most tables.(in before lol you run good....lulz)
By Position:
Stack Size:
<16
16<BB<30
30BB<
What to gather from all of this:
- I run good lololol, sort of(its more complex than BB/100 but meh)
- Aggression pays
- Restealing is the nuts
- Most of your time should be spent with more than 16 BBs, and in fact the highest percent should be spent with more than 30 BBs
Now I know there are multiple ways to start a fire, and I am far from playing optimally, but there is a ton of merit to playing to build a big stack by playing aggressive and taking risks that pay off long term. the more chips you have getting deep, the more you can exploit the final two tables which is the biggest difference between a lot of meh regs and some of the better regs. If you notice shaun deeb sweat threads, probably around 50% of the time he comes in top 3 in chips, maybe even higher, this is true with many of the top players you guys look up to. They are playing to win, and they will take gambles final two tables if it helps them improve their fEV(futureEV). Future EV is often overlooked, but it is very important. This is why you dont break up a resteal stack to call light, you dont fold a marginally -EV hand if you are going to lose out on your fold equity soon. Every action in the universe has an effect, if you fold now that will effect what you can or can not, do or dont do down the road, and you need to factor in your future decisions.
From the stack sizes distribution you can tell that I play more flops as a >30BB stack(3 betting a tad less), shove more as a short stack. I also open a lot less from mid stacks if its going to start to cost me FE in reshove spots.
I am sure there are a lot of other things I can conclude from this stuff but without more peoples stats to compare it to it is sort of pointless cause although i have a feeling i really dont know what a high cbet % is or a high WTSD% or whatever. If somone wants to PM me their stats or post ITT that would be appreciated so we can compare and maybe help some more people.
The Future of MTTs
I only play part time cause I go to college and only play during winter break(january) and summer (Jun-Aug) so it sucks cause i keep coming back sort of rusty and miss out on all of these cool things people are doing now a days. Like for example the other day someone had to explain to me what "merging" was. Not to say i didnt do any merging, cause after learning it I def do it a frequent amount, but I was unfamiliar that it had a term.
But one thing I can confidently conclude IMO is that of all the forms of poker MTTs will dry up the last and in fact will have very little change over the next year or so. This is for two reasons:
- Big scores attract fish
- A lot of people cant handle the grind of a full MTT Schedule day in or day out
But with that said, right now I still recommend that people learn some other form of poker. Even learning 180s(i know 180 regs hate it when people recommend good players to start grinding them). But find some lower varicne form to supplement your play. Whether its low stakes cash, HU sngs, or NL Badugi, i really dont care but find something that allows you to make decent side income. You can grind a full schedule of MTTs 3 days a week and the others just play low variance poker and you will def be more "refreshed" everytime you grind MTTs as you wont get robotic and tired of it.
Backing
If you can afford to play an AVG stake of 15$ on your own and are offered an AVG stake of 30$ backed, take the 15$, sure you might get to play the 109 or 162 or whatever every day, but having 100% of 100$ ROI at 15$ is better than 50% of a 70% ROI at 30$ ABI.
Now there are merits to getting backed even if the above is true, if you play better with backing or maybe there are good opportunities to move up with the backer. But everyone that is backed should reevaluate their backing, maybe you would be better off putting your ego aside and playing 30s< on your own than 162s< backed. But only you can make that decision.
Dont Get Complacent
I posted about this in my 5k post but it still applies, keep on working on your game, I have been playing some Sngs recently and it reminded me of this. So many regs just grind out a 5% ROi when the top regs are making 10-12% and I wonder why, and its because they are complacent. They are contempt with the money they are making and are maybe under the "If it aint broken dont fix it" mentality. But in poker your mentality is "I am always broken, what can I fix". Nobody plays optimally 100% of the time, its a fact, but we can strive for our best game the highest % of the time we can get.
I suck at Poker- Things I touch turn into gold
This is probably the least helpful section but I have mentored one person(through a MTT section mentor/mentee thread) and coached one person at MTTs, and now both of them have more profit than me...fml
** You guys can ask me questions and this can be a minwell I guess**
I was planing this post for a long time and by planning I mean i have waited a long time after my 9999 post to type this but just typed it all in the last hour and a half or so.
Also no way I can make a 10kth post without the following trolling:
DONT READ IF YOU DONT WANT TO SEE ME TROLLING SOMEONE:
Spoiler:
Later,
Cody Custer
02-04-2011
, 06:13 AM
02-04-2011
, 10:54 AM
A good read, pretty much agree with it on every word.
There are a few things I'd like to ask about situations I find myself in on a regular basis.
1. Whenever I get a big stack early on it comes to a point where the majority of the players have an M ratio of 10 or less i.e reshoving stacks, and i find myself really tightening up and not adding to my chip count. Should I be calling a bit wider? i pretty much always throw away speculative hands like J10s etc against a 25BB stack.
This has a knock on effect, Whenever I'v got into the final 27 players (basically haveing between 12 and 30BB) , I cant ever actually recall being in the top 3.
I generally run 14/9 to 16/12, never really higher or lower than that. This leads me to my 2nd Q;
2. What do you look to exploit in a 14/9 to 16/12 player?
(Theres other things I'd like to ask, but I'm having trouble wording them lol I'll try again when i'm less hungover
)
There are a few things I'd like to ask about situations I find myself in on a regular basis.
1. Whenever I get a big stack early on it comes to a point where the majority of the players have an M ratio of 10 or less i.e reshoving stacks, and i find myself really tightening up and not adding to my chip count. Should I be calling a bit wider? i pretty much always throw away speculative hands like J10s etc against a 25BB stack.
This has a knock on effect, Whenever I'v got into the final 27 players (basically haveing between 12 and 30BB) , I cant ever actually recall being in the top 3.
I generally run 14/9 to 16/12, never really higher or lower than that. This leads me to my 2nd Q;
2. What do you look to exploit in a 14/9 to 16/12 player?
(Theres other things I'd like to ask, but I'm having trouble wording them lol I'll try again when i'm less hungover
)
02-04-2011
, 11:18 AM
02-04-2011
, 11:47 AM
cool CCuster- I like the post. TYVM!
02-04-2011
, 11:58 AM
nice post, only thing i disagree with is SNG regs making 12% roi.
Doesn't happen anymore with maybe one exception I know of
Doesn't happen anymore with maybe one exception I know of
02-04-2011
, 01:18 PM
02-04-2011
, 01:51 PM
02-04-2011
, 03:39 PM
