might be the first time in the history of limit hold them that someone has needed to fold their BB more

Hmmm now curious as to what his BB VPIP Is. Image not displaying anymore.

73%

Sweet Jesus

Heh . If I fold my BB more, then automatically my VPIP goes down and the gap between VPIP and PFR closes a little.

I know I should show down more. I have trouble finding these spots though. Any idea where I fold too much? Is it just the river, or am I folding too much on other streets too?

Thanks for the suggestions

You should DEFINITELY be paying taxes on all your poker winnings. It is a felony to not do so.

Also, I'm relatively new to the game myself, but I still recommend taking shots at higher levels. I started at $.50/$1 in November and am at 3/6 and 5/T now. Its not any more frustrating when you lose, but it's a lot more awesome when you win.

(Btw, I recommend ignoring Stox's starting hand recommendations if you ever move up in stakes. I think any competent player will tell you, he is WAY too tight.)

Just got here and you are already leveling?

Actually, it was Defend BB against steal that was 73%, not VP$IP from BB.

But never mind that, 27% Folded BB to Steal is not outrageous in certain circumstances, but I agree that said player could tighten the stat a little bit.

Yeah, well ez game, right? ;-)

Plus I know how to flop well.

I would love some feedback on these stats, I especially would like to know if any of you would say that these look like the sats of someone who is a winner at these particular stakes.

Thanks for taking the time.

Wayyyy too passive postflop, my aggression% is 55 to give you an idea. I also think you can slightly narrow the gap between your vpip and pfr (again an aggression issue), but that's not as bad.

Yeah, you are definitely giving up value by being so passive. My AFq is 54%. I'm not nearly as worried about the VPIP/PFR gap especially in the smaller stakes games because you will more often have multiple limpers in front of you. 31/21 is fine pf

I agree w/La Peste and jph0424. Aim for the 50s for your Agg% imo.

Your went to showdown stats are similar to mine. 31/21 is probably pretty solid for low stakes, so yeah, I agree with what has been said there. Maybe slightly higher PFR% wouldn't hurt, especially focusing on iso-raising fish light if you aren't already doing that.

I think this is a symptom of being on a 500B+ downswing and losing confidence. Do you think that your level of aggression is too much at these stakes where nobody folds though?

trying to not make this sound like a moan post, it isnt. but its possible for me to lose 1.22BB/100 over 34k hands and still be a good player right? it can be just variance?

I think it would depend on your winrate. If your true winrate was something like 1BB/100, I think a swing like this would be very natural. In any case I would look to do a sweat with someone you respect, maybe check out a few training videos, and thinking about cutting back on the amount of tables.

sup guys,I've switch to 6 max LHE about a month ago,all hands are .50/1 , about 12k total,as you can see below,I'm break-even atm.Still making the transition from FR to SH.

Just wondering if you guys can give me some advice base on this small sample size.

Any comment will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks and Good cards.

dino, your numbers look good. The only thing I would say, is for $.50/$1.00 you could fold your BB a little bit more against steals but that is really not that big of a deal at all. You could afford to loosen up a little bit, but if you are just starting to get a feel for 6max, tighter is probably better as you transition.

But my result sucks It's all good though,I understand how variance works in games of chances.

Actually I'm very comfortable in my Blind plays so far.
I've been tighten up a bit lately in BB,and the result got worse.I remember it was -.15BB/hand in the BB not to long ago,and I was folding less than 30%.

Anyways, thanks for the reply.

Okay, let's do this in reverse: we assume that you were 1BB/100 winner over the sample. And we ask what's the probability that your actual result is:

-1.22BB/100.

I further assume that your std dev per 100 hands is 18BB, pretty normal for 6-max limit hold'em.

The standard deviation of the sample is:

= std dev of one hand * square root of the number of hands
= 1.8BB * sqrt(34000)
= 331.9BB

The mean result with your assumed 1BB/100 winrate is:

= 34000 / 100 * 1BB
= 340BB

The actual result of the sample is:

= - (34000 / 100) * 1.22BB
= - 414.8BB

Now we can obtain the Z-score of the observed result compared to the assumption:

z = (actual result - sample mean) / std dev of the sample
= (-414.8 - 340) / 331.9
= - 2.27

With the NORMSDIST() Excel/Open Office function we see that the result is 0.0116. (This can be calculated from the Z score tables too.)

So, the probablity that a 1BB/100 winner (over the sample!) would have a result of -1.22BB/100 in 34k hand sample is 1.2%. Draw your own conclusions from that. ;-)

(If my calculations are correct. Leader or someone else please confirm or disconfirm my logic here. :-))

Looks good.

In general, I think people knock things up to variance far too much. Losing 300BB is a sign something is wrong far more often then it's just completely random. imo it's always wrong to assume that a bad run is just bad luck. Downswings are often your best chance to fix leaks and get better.

Here's some R code for this example, which eliminates the need to calculate z-scores ect:

I tried to be pick up the general rules:
is it correct ?

I have HEM and always assumed "steal" was defined as folded to hero and hero opens (CO, BTN, SB). I have been dabbling in RUSH after playing almost exclusively 6m for last couple years and was wondering how my SB and button steals could be so much lower when I'm stealing more or less the same range.

Turns out HEM defines "steal" as raising an unopened pot, so a couple limpers in FR and you fold or call the CO/BTN/SB is a missed steal opportunity. Obviously there are more limped pots in RUSH (.5-1 FR) than e.g. 1-2/2-4/3-6 6max.

But I think even in 6m my steal % is less what I would consider it to be, as there are occasional limped pots where I call or fold when I would have raised had it been folded to me.

Am I the only one who did not know HEM calculated steal % this way? Does PT3 do it the same?

First is the actual result, second is the expected result (in this case, 1BB/100 for 34k hands, ie. 340BB). Third is correct.

Yeah. Here's the documentation if you're interested.