Quote:
Originally Posted by Lestat
Yes. Sorry. I meant Truman. Why can't we use the same calculation for number of lives lost with or without nukes even if the circumstances are different?
In 1945, Truman didn't strictly know what the weapons would do. Oppenheimer told him that each bomb might kill just 10,000. And the Allies had been conducting unrestricted air warfare on a colossal scale for years. The March fire-raid on Tokyo probably killed more people than either of the atomic bombs, certainly more than Nagasaki. And there was the prospect of the war dragging on into 1946, with a full-scale invasion of Japan, at the cost of untold Allied and enemy lives. Hence the decision.
But for the US, nowadays, to start a war, simply in pursuit of a policy, and chuck nuclear weapons around as a mere expedient... it would probably finish the US as a world power. The country would become a pariah, and China would pull the plug on the US economy any way they could.
Quote:
I'm not saying let's nuke NK tomorrow. I'm saying that if it comes down to war with NK, ending it the quickest manner possible seems best. And if you're willing to just wait it out until an insane madman has a fully working long range nuclear arsenal, then it's going to be an all out nuclear war anyway. I fail to see how that's any better.
Kim can't actually use nuclear weapons for fear of nuclear retaliation. He's probably not so mad that he would do that. Even 'crazy' dictators still act out of rational self-interest. They don't mind other people getting killed in wars, but the trouble with nuclear weapons is they can destroy the dictator's stuff. His palaces and... stuff. And his reign might end. The more likely danger is that Kim would try to export nuclear technology -- North Korea doesn't have any high-value exports otherwise. But that will need to be monitored by intelligence and diplomacy and possibly a bit of 'hard power' at the right point at the right time. Although it would have helped if the US had managed to stop the Pakistanis giving Kim nuclear technology in the first place.
Quote:
Your point about Seoul is well taken though. That's why I'm posting on 2p2 and not drawing up battle plans as an acting general.
The vulnerability of Seoul is one of the main problems in dealing with North Korea.