Each of the four groups of players generates 225,000 beast points, give or take a thousand. Each group contributes 2 cents per point, or $4,500. In my analysis, when a group is paid more than $4,500, they show a profit. If they fail to get $4,500, they show a loss.
The entire magnitude of the change is shown by taking away profit and adding in the loss. The third group of players will have $1,400 less each week while the fourth group will have $1,200 less. Why has $3,600 a week ($187,000 annually) been moved to the top? Obviously, WPN believes big bubbles create big Beast points – which will increase rake. (For maximum clarity, this is comparing Beast before the changes to Beast after the changes, not Beast v No-Beast.)
My profit/loss analysis assumes everyone plays the same amount – which cannot be true. WPN believes people will play more. I believe the probable gains they get at the very top will be offset by reduced play at bottom. First, because the bottom has $187,000 a year less money to play with. And second, because gains at the top will be short-lived. Here's why I believe the second point.
When the Beast first started, it was monthly and I was always in the top 10. But, there was a pecking order. The top players had the ability to play more tables than I could. And those below lacked the ability to match my table count. I remember playing 20 tables the last day to protect a $1,000 bubble. I told the guy forcing me to play that he would never catch me. I told him to take the day off and watch his Beast grow – but he wouldn't. There was no way I was giving away $1,000 so I hammered the tables with him, knowing I was losing. I held my position and lost $500 that day. But, losing $500 was better than losing $1,000, so I had to play. I checked my underling's stats for that final day: Down $2,000! The fool lost $2,000 chasing my $1,000. That was the only month I remember him being a regular. The sheep was skinned.
I predict that 1-2-3 will play just enough to beat #5. If #5 hammers the tables the last day or two, 1-4 will log on and defend the $1,500 bubble. I've done it. Hell, I still do it for $90. I try not to play on Fridays, but when near the bottom of the payout, I log in, see how close I am to getting blanked, and if close, I play a dozen tables for an hour or two. I've never been shutout because I can play more tables than those at the 100 level.
So, the question is: Will players hammer the tables with the hope that one of the top 4 get put in the hospital and can't defend or will people do what I do and play just enough to get the amount that they want?
I predict that after a week or three, #5 will learn that he cannot enter the top 4, so his rake will fall to an amount that beats the fellow at the top of the tier below him, 8 spots down. With the old payout, every player in the top 20 could grab an extra $50 or $100 with one additional spot. The thinking would be, “Hell, it's Friday night. Someone above me has to have a date or a drinking problem and isn't playing so I'm playing.” Not now. The only way to grab $50 is by finding a sheep to shear. The Beast will reduce the number of players who are motivate to play additional tables. Once locked into a tier, the object is to shear sheep, not move up the Beast. Unless at the bubble, with a chance of moving up, the Beast stops motivating.
Back to pecking order. I already see a change in behavior. I now predict that the top players will start enjoying weekends. Machine, TGS, Leatherass, Q-tip, Gift of Gab, any of the people able to hammer 20+ tables will enjoy their weekends and start working Monday-Friday because they know they can always catch up. They might miss calculate a week or two, but they won't for long.
Like the fellow who banked on taking my $1,000, the people who get caught on the last day will get skinned. They will think it's okay to lose $2,000 because they will get $2,500 on Saturday. Late Friday night they will learn that they are minus $1,000, not plus $500. They won't be around long. If they survive, they will start playing just enough hands to beat the top $250 player, somewhere around 14. Instead of playing more to steal or defend a spot in the top 20, number 5 will reduce his play to somewhere around #10. He has to reduce his tables, or stakes, because his bankroll took a hit while he was learning the pecking order.
Or, I could be totally wrong.
We'll soon see.
Legal Notice: Trying to understand the Beast can cause headaches, nausea, itching, hives, rashes, hemorrhoids, diarrhea, gingivitis, and male-pattern-baldness.