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04-12-2011 , 05:32 AM

#176

Merv303

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 240

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sheetah

Many good ideas. Thanks.

By 'mediocre player' I meant something like 35/14 (seeing lots of these at my tables) while better players usually do not overvalue their AAxxx and 2 mid pairs hands ... some even check behind lower trips.

There are many little things that may affect one's decision whether to c/f or c/c or b/f. Just played such a hand against 50/15 with fold to CB 30% and felt confident to bet for value (and got called with worse pair). Against nits I check and they check behind religiously. The only problem are those annoying sticky semi aggressive donks who happily call with so-so hands if you bet but often bet themselves if you show weakness. Occasionally it's a bluff but the bigger part is their value range. And by betting too much I've value owned myself more than I can remember. Guess I'll have to balance my ranges a little.

my general take in this spot is to b/f. as you highlighted, a player with a loose range (and particularly with a low fold to CB) will generally have a worse enough hand to value bet without getting stuck for a significant amount.

in terms of the 'semi-aggressive donks', i generally only like to check to them IF they are likely call my reraise or will bluff enough of their previous folding range where i've bet. generally though, i find that such players won't either call my raise, or bet significantly more of their range to make such a play worthwhile.

Quote

04-12-2011 , 12:13 PM

#177

ExaMeter

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 3,984

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

the general consensus also holds that it is unlikely you will get paid off by 1 pair if you played 2233-99xx strongly predraw (this general consensus is actually wrong but prevalent nonetheless)

very true.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

I could also go into how the general consensus by the supposedly more astute players is that calling 3 bets with 1 pair is not profitable

wouldnt that make them terrible instead of astute? i know you said supposedly but my feel for the better regs at 2/4+ is that none of them routinely fold 1pairs to 3bets.

Quote

04-12-2011 , 02:25 PM

#178

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by ExaMeter

wouldnt that make them terrible instead of astute? i know you said supposedly but my feel for the better regs at 2/4+ is that none of them routinely fold 1pairs to 3bets.

News flash: there's a ton of money in 5 card draw

Quote

04-12-2011 , 02:53 PM

#179

ExaMeter

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 3,984

yeah as long as i keep spewing :P

whats your sn on stars lucius?

Quote

04-12-2011 , 03:27 PM

#180

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by ExaMeter

yeah as long as i keep spewing :P

whats your sn on stars lucius?

I don't want to disclose that coz I like money.

Quote

04-13-2011 , 12:18 AM

#181

Vanity

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 893

I was doing well on FT so thought id move to stars to get more action. Getting owned at Stars. FML

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04-13-2011 , 12:22 AM

#182

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

trouble is it's so tough to get a game on FTP. it's way softer but all the time waiting you could be playing and winning on stars.

i've actually transferred over. that's even after i fought on and off with a haphazard affiliate for two years trying to get rakeback on FTP.

Quote

04-13-2011 , 04:56 PM

#183

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

glad i moved over. now +$203.00 on 2/4 5cd after 1682 hands

games are nitty compared to 1/2 and below. have decided i will table select and quit when games are no longer good. did it tonight.

lineup when I quit was:
fun2draw1
Mistr Kim
Potockaya
brj11 (unknown who seemed tightish)

lineup when I sat was:
fun2draw1
Potockaya
elay802
lejoninnan
brj11

find that lejoninnan guy!

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 04-13-2011 at 05:11 PM.

Quote

04-13-2011 , 05:41 PM

#184

HashbrownTX

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 113

Math question...

I manually (i.e. Excel instead of true tracking software) keep record of my # of hands/BR from Limit 5C. I generally play across 2 limits, .25/.50 & .5/1.00

If I average the two, can I call a BB $1.50 and get a semi-accurate idea of my BB/100?

Math and I never got along too well... thanks all.

hbtx

Quote

04-13-2011 , 06:39 PM

#185

Sheetah

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by HashbrownTX

...I manually (i.e. Excel instead of true tracking software) keep record ...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...ledraw-342877/
freeware/open source (to get the last version start reading from end)

Quote:

Originally Posted by HashbrownTX

...If I average the two, can I call a BB $1.50 and get a semi-accurate idea of my BB/100?...

Only if you've played exactly the same (or close enough) number of hands on both levels.

Quote

04-13-2011 , 07:19 PM

#186

HashbrownTX

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 113

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sheetah

freeware/open source

Pokerhands, blah blah blah, I know

I guess I have to bite the bullet and get Parallels up and running on my MAC.

Thanks for your reply!

Quote

04-14-2011 , 01:03 AM

#187

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit 5 Card Draw - 5 players - View hand 1278082
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with K

UTG folds, Hero raises, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls

First Draw: (4.5 SB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero stands pat
Hand: K

BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Final Pot: 4.25 BB
BB mucks A

Hero shows K

(a pair of Kings)
Hero wins 4.25 BB

this is the result of bluffing enough!

Quote

04-14-2011 , 10:14 AM

#188

AKQJ10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 13,314

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

Final Pot: 4.25 BB
BB mucks A

Hero shows K

(a pair of Kings)
Hero wins 4.25 BB

this is the result of bluffing enough!

1. Is KK ahead of BB's median calling hand there?
2. If BB is more likely to call after 3 : pat than 3:3, you've clearly found yourself a way to print money.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 12:27 PM

#189

Bjornar

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,969

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit 5 Card Draw - 5 players - View hand 1278082
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with K

UTG folds, Hero raises, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls

First Draw: (4.5 SB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero stands pat
Hand: K

BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Final Pot: 4.25 BB
BB mucks A

Hero shows K

(a pair of Kings)
Hero wins 4.25 BB

this is the result of bluffing enough!

Dont think I like it. He is so very likely to have a worse hand then you anyway. I like patting some two pairs here sometimes if villain is that curious.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 02:38 PM

#190

Sheetah

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

...
this is the result of bluffing enough!

LOL
and obligatory: but how much did you lose? ... during the process (bluffing enough)

Dunno, I'm with Bjornar here. KK is way too thin for 'pat value bluff'. Not many hands that you beat are calling even with your image. Pat with 2P is a different story and also a very good way to block someone post draw, just like yesterday when I went into war vs aggro villain with AAKK, predraw was capped, I drew 1 he patted, I checked and he checked behind lower 2 pairs and lost. My first thought was "wow, how ******ed was that?" and then realized that in fact I failed to collect one extra big bet.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 02:46 PM

#191

Sheetah

adept

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by HashbrownTX

Pokerhands, blah blah blah, I know

I guess I have to bite the bullet and get Parallels up and running on my MAC.

Thanks for your reply!

Alright, I can do the math for you (average BB/100) if you give me 4 parameters:
1) winrate for 0.25/0.5 (lets call it WR1)
2) how many hands played at 0.25/0.5 (lets call it HH1)
3) winrate for 0.5/1 (lets call it WR2)
4) how many hands played at 0.5/1 (lets call it HH2)

... OR ...

you can do it yourself by using following formula:

AVG_BB = (WR1*HH1 + WR2*HH2)/(HH1+HH2)

Quote

04-14-2011 , 03:20 PM

#192

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bjornar

Dont think I like it. He is so very likely to have a worse hand then you anyway.

That's precisely why I thought it would work. The draw 2 gave it away. If he had drawn 3 I would've drawn 3 or 1 however.

I knew as long as I HOLD I would get him to pay me off with QQ or below UI.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 04:07 PM

#193

Bjornar

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,969

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

That's precisely why I thought it would work. The draw 2 gave it away. If he had drawn 3 I would've drawn 3 or 1 however.

I knew as long as I HOLD I would get him to pay me off with QQ or below UI.

I hate the idea of people drawing out on me and Im not even drawing at outdrawing him back! So you dont bet in 3-3 spots vs this villain? Seems like that would be almost equally profitable.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 04:52 PM

#194

HashbrownTX

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 113

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sheetah

AVG_BB = (WR1*HH1 + WR2*HH2)/(HH1+HH2)

That is beautiful. Thank you very much.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 05:29 PM

#195

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bjornar

I hate the idea of people drawing out on me and Im not even drawing at outdrawing him back! So you dont bet in 3-3 spots vs this villain? Seems like that would be almost equally profitable.

I wouldn't say I don't, but I would say I bet less often. The logic behind that is that if they see you draw three and they are sitting on TT-KK they aren't so automatically calling if you bet because the assumption is that you either had AA and are betting UI or you have improved.

Draw 1 and they think you're on a draw and will never put you on 1 pair, especially if you raise CO, BTN or SB vs them in the BB, stand pat and they often think you are FOS.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 05:36 PM

#196

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by AKQJ10

1. Is KK ahead of BB's median calling hand there?
2. If BB is more likely to call after 3 : pat than 3:3, you've clearly found yourself a way to print money.

1. it's ahead before the draw but not necessarily after. i'm a 2 to 1 favourite to still be good and I think he is definitely calling more than 50% of the time.

2. i concur

IMO the fact he drew 2 and that he was in the BB had "i've got a mid pair with a kicker and i'm defending" all over it. I do see people draw to AAK or KKQ but it's not as common as what he actually had.

Quote

04-14-2011 , 07:50 PM

#197

HashbrownTX

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 113

Quote:

Originally Posted by HashbrownTX

That is not as good as I thought.

FMP

1.03

Last edited by HashbrownTX; 04-14-2011 at 07:51 PM. Reason: [ ] sample size

Quote

04-15-2011 , 12:45 AM

#198

Vanity

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 893

Anyone know the odds of drawing to trips vs two pair when you discard 3? (pair in the hole)

This would help me so much in making my decision vs other players that draw 3 then reraise me when i hold aces up

Quote

04-15-2011 , 03:48 AM

#199

LUCIUS VARENUS

Soldier of Minbet

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,461

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vanity

it's almost always trips, usually high trips, you don't need to know the odds.

it's more about what reads you have on them prior to the post raise than what odds there are. if none, assume the above.

Quote

04-15-2011 , 03:59 AM

#200

Vanity

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 893

That is what seems to be the case. After calling down and getting shown trips enough times ive been getting away from my two pairs more often in that spot

Quote

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