(I assume that you mean me with a slight spelling error)

Not much to add, just that 89T with one dead Q has 53.5%/60.9% (OOP/IP) probability of hitting the right cards for straight (not considering the order in which cards will come). If you don't count the Q's as outs, its only 41.8%/48.1%.

Of course one could also set 89TQ, which has 53.9%/58.6%

(I would probably set for flush)

should I ever go for a gutshot ?

starting hand :

76537

I did..7653 in back . 7 in middle..

I didn't want to put 77 together because his starting hand was JJ77x.

PlayWarren finally has the ability to simulate Criss Cross OFC hands. Here's the result for the hand in question. Setting the 9 at the bottom is a more profitable play.

isn't it called front/middle/back? bottom is confusing me because in some games the opponents hand is mirrored and kind of upside down.

do I miss something?

Sent from my Mobile Phone - bansky11

How bad do people think the

K / 2 4 / J8 set is

Just looking to go pair and pair and most likely K high gonna be good for the top.

Don't you have the hands mixed up, or do I read it incorrectly?

Kingfish has pair of A's & pair of 8's in the middle, and ifoldQQ has K-high in the middle and flush in the back. Your screen has "opponent" with K-high and pair of 8's in the middle?

Excel (or OpenOffice) can go through all 720 possibilities.

Unless I made an error (which is quite possible, likely even), putting 9 in front is slightly better.

start suggestions?

Exactly as shown. (Since we have no other info I'm assuming we're UTG).

If a few diamonds are out, I'd play the 6d on the bottom. And if we are on the button in a 3 or 4 handed game with diamonds almost dead, then play the 6s on the bottom with a live kicker.

AAQQT 2 hearts

I set

QQ front
AA mid
T back

risky?

do I understand correctly that playwarren has simulator for a game, you enter cards and the situation and it calculates the best move?

do people use that on real money tables? bots vs bots?

Hero's positions are exchanged. Besides that, everything is the same.

What value are you using for FL?

12 points

e: it would need to be 20 before the putting the nine in the back becomes better

So you mean that 77J is in fact Hero's hand, even if it is listed under "opponent"?

Ah, I see what you mean. Yes, we want to maintain the Criss Cross look.

I don't know what your equations look like but 20 seems a little too high.

Ok, so according to PlayWarren, hero's total EV is -4.29 with 9 in front and -4.2 with 9 in the back. Did I interpret it correctly?

Which bonuses and value for FL are you using?

I have no actual equations. What I have here is two excel sheets with 720 rows in each, one putting 9 in front and another putting 9 in the back and the 720 rows representing how the rest of the deck may be ordered. For each row the result is calculated, and then the average is taken.

6 points for full house in the back; 4 points for flush in the back; 2 points for trips in the middle.

With 12 points for the FL, the EV for putting 9 in front is -2.38 and back = -3.64.

With 20 points for FL the numbers are -2.38 and -2.31

There may well be an error somewhere, but I haven't spotted it yet.

One difference is that for 77J -hand my fouling percentage is exactly 60% (432 cases out of 720), whereas you get 63%. This is easy to calculate: 77J needs either J or two 2's for not fouling; the probability for that is exactly 0.6 and not 0.63, so PlayWarren does something wrong.

Warren's results are based on simulations so I can see how the foul % differ. If I run another simulation on this board, the foul % may be 61% instead of 63% and his EV might change slightly. However, the range is tiny.

Also, Warren doesn't give exact percentages because any OFC Simulator giving exact percentages for non-end games is drawing dead, but maybe Moore's Law will go on steroids in the next few months.

With this hand landing on the lower end of the deck and the dead 7's, a gutshot probably is your best play.

It's ~59% to hit the straight assuming live 4's. I'd be curious about suits for you and the villain, but if you are willing to set the gutterball and live with the percentages there, all A K Q 10 9 8 are live to try to do something fun with in the middle and front. Your opponent has a little less than a coin flip (48%) to catch the boat, so you have a small edge in back row royalty expectancy.

If this plan does not work, no 4 appears and you foul, I would argue that setting any other way would be very likely to be scooped anyway. As the rules currently stand, fouling and getting scooped are equivalent in regards to scoring: -6 points.

This type of decision can be quickly made if you know or have reference to some basic open face chinese odds. I recommend memorizing a couple of early situations.

On that note, I now have a complete set of heads-up, 3-handed, and 4-handed charts available for reference or PDF download. They cover every player on every street for single-event occurrences (i.e. catching your gutterball or if you're 4-to-the-flush, that sort of thing). For those who would find it useful, these are free and can be referenced here:

http://www.openfaceodds.com/odds.html

Just wanted to add another simulation in addition to my explanation earlier. As you can see, this simulation has 60.4% fouling rate for Hero.

What is the point of simulating situations, that can be solved by brute force in microseconds?

In this case there are only six cards in the deck. Any "intelligent" program would surely just iterate through the possibilities. Simulations should be done only when other means of calculation are not feasible, which is not the case here.

I can also see that your EV numbers are very much different from the first screenshot. That suggests that there is something really strange about how you do your simulations.

edit: Hmm... now the hands are in different order, too. Perhaps you changed something else there.

Anyone is welcome to build an "intelligent" program that uses brute forces to solve OFC. Good luck.