So I am probably the biggest fish ever. In such an hand, in case I would be villain, I would only check my 86. Against me you will lose a bet (happy me).

I think that in such situations only a fish (in villain) will/can bet with 86. The only thing I can be scared is really that HERO sucked and is going for a check-raise.

If HERO called the bet on 6th with 8764xx for sure will never fold on the river and no reason to bet with a 86. HERO can well already have a 23467, A4567, etc ... on 6th. In villain's position I will just check and gather notes on you!

Why would hero c/c on 6th with a made 7 when villain is boardlocked to an 8? Hero would have to be very tricky/trappy and also not very good, which is a rare combination. Since I know ceegee doesn't fit that description, villain would have to be a bad reader of opponents to think that.

There are some limits/games where players play by axiom and won't bet a "rough" 8 (like an 86) for value on the river, and if you're in that kind of game then clearly you want to lead 7th. In other kinds of games, you clearly want to c/r. If you have a read on your specific opponent here, then use it instead.

So now you're saying it's bad to value bet 86 here?

I think your default line would be a c/r as he should be betting a 86 for value and start to move away from this line a percentage of the time once reads come into play.

OK, we don't need to exaggerate on each word and play all around-around. For sure it isn't not bad to value bet a 86 - but a good player is ready to check it to avoid a check-raise (as I told in a previous) answerd. If ceegee called his bet it means that his hand is able to beat a 86-low. For this reason I think that the pot is big enough to just check behind with a 86 and gather collection on villain. Poker is an information game too. Not only a BET-CALL-FOLD-CHECK/RAISE game.

For sure ceegee can go for a c/r ... btw I would only bet.


I think that this sentences are 100% correct and reasume all our discussion.

Cyaaaaaa

But this isn't true, obviously, because ceegee couldn't beat an 86 low. Giving too much credit is pretty deadly in razz.

What do you mean with "Giving to much credit"? Related to ceegee or villain? I think that villain can give credit and just check it down, try to take the pot with 86 and avoid a trap.
Why ceegee cannot beat a 86? He did. Yes, at 6th he was behing but that is a 7-streets game and with his card he can bet a 86.

Can you please explaim me better Rusty. I am really interesting.

Cyaaaaa

You said "if ceegee called his bet, he is able to beat an 86 low". Clearly, ceegee was unable to beat his low on 6th. In fact, if he could, then just calling would be pretty bad.

So given that ceegee is behind on 6th, what percentage of the time will he also be behind on 7th? Is he going to fold an 87 for one bet? Will he check-raise every time with a 7?

Honestly I don't see you putting any analysis into this hand, you're just claiming that your way is right without any means of supporting it. The fact that ceegee COULD have a better hand now is not a good reason to check.

cliffs: this is a bad way to play poker --

[ ] I have the nuts

[ ] I bet

So if he has you beat 10% of the time, you should just check behind in fear of a c/r?

I'm with Rusty. I see no reasoning behind your theory, other than "I might be beat so I should check."

Can you correct my numbers? I am not a master ...

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation

3,927 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
834678	42.58%	1,608	128
(8- 8- 4) 468	57.42%	2,191	128

If the numbers are really these I continue to stay on my idea ... but I am not against a check/raise ... you are a more aggressive player than me!!!

Eg. If villain is somebody like: gipsy74, elvis-senior, teacuppoker, bordoex so go for a check/raise.

If villain is like me: bet

I use another style ... and so far it works good.

In such an hand I would be able to check.
- First, you are not sure villain has really an 86-low, he knows you will 100% call and so no reason to do a bet in bluff. OK, if he has nothing he will not call but at least he doesn't gather notes/information on your "opens".

- Second, I would have hit a nice runner runner and in some way a kind of nice chase against the 467 of ceegee. For these reason I am able to check behind, again.

- Third, If the number are really those above 57 vs 43 is not really that strong ... (I ever lose with my 80 vs 20 ... or I must be really unlucky).

But you're giving him a range here where he doesn't even necessarily have a made 86. Give him a made 86, then give ceegee an obvious 87, and see how often he's good. By my estimation it's more than 70%, sometimes more than 80%

Having a made 86 on 6th, vs a very likely 87, you will have the best hand on the river an overwhelming percentage of the time.

Let's say your opponent can get there 30% of the time - this means you can still profitably bet, if your opponent will always call with his 87. If he's too canny to always call with just that, then you may have a problem. But then again, this means you'll have some very good spots to bluff.

[IMG]ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
447 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9q53jj
(6-6-864)4K 51.01% (228 wins, 0 ties)
(8-8-4)678* 48.99% (219 wins, 0 ties)[/IMG]

NOONE is checking back a 68 here...theres more value in betting 7th for villian because hes getting called 100% of the time by a 78 and hero dosent improve enough on 7th to check it back


I honestly dont get what the debate is about how is leading 7th good..villian is never checking back a 68..unless he likes to burn money and is bad.

Because of how 6th played I think the right sim would be

Razz Simulation ?
697 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9q53jj
Hand Equity Wins Ties
(6-6-864)4K 74.18% 517 0
(88-467)8* 25.82% 180 0

Hence why a 86 should bet most of the time.

No money in razz, everyone's solid

How do we handle a 3bet on 7th?

c/f 7th. villain hits a better 7 or a 6 low here almost everytime, and hes checking back 86 in fear of gettin c/r so hes only betting if he improves to a 7 or 6 on 7th.

lol

My mind has been changed by revalation of sick_fade.

Answer...

he has to bet his 86 on the river if he has one because i will call with any 87 here, as will most people will i think. so I think C/C is ok C/R/F is a little ridiculous, as only better hands are going to call the c/r a ton of the time, so you might as well C/C since you aren't getting more than one bet on the river profitably like ever. I think bet folding is good too.

If he bets 86 on the river I doubt he's folding it. c/r/c

why?

[QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by aufuuu
c/r/f

Is this a bad play?