Can mypokerintel give us data on any other huge winners on ultimatebet over a reasonable sample size (say 10k hands) ?

I dont want to start a witch hunt- but i think it'd be in our best interest to see who other potential cheaters are- especially given that absolute poker/ ultimate bet have done nothing on their own to uncover cheaters.

Hmmmmm...

I think you guys should convince people who played him to contribute their sessions and either post them or at least get top players to look them over. Also, the player pool for 25-50+ on UB must be pretty small so you might be able to contact people and reconstruct partial ring game sessions.

dlp,

My repeated advice in the previous AP/UB threads was that people stop playing on those sites because they have been shown in many ways to be super sketchy. I also wrote that anyplace there's one cheater exposed, it's highly likely that there are others. None of my opinions on that matter have changed.

So, what do I think you should do? I think you should raise a huge stink the way N82 and others did w/ the AP thing, and maybe you and others will be able to get some money back if it's shown beyond a reasonable doubt that the guy was cheating (I haven't gone through the latest bunches of posts/analysis to see if things have changed from "very suspicious" to "very likely").

After that, if you care, you could try to organize a boycott or something, but that's likely a waste of time more than anything else. Memories in the poker world are very short, and soft games trump principle for many players. I mean, look at AP. They actively lied and tried to coverup cheating they were aware of, changing the story multiple times, and only in the face of incontrovertible smoking gun evidence did they finally admit that cheating had occurred. And it's highly likely that management there knew this crap was going on all along. Yet people still continue to play there and at UB

I stopped playing on UB in 2006 after I lost huge at PLO and got sketched out, so I don't know much about the merger with Absolute. How much management overlap is there? I'm sure some of you connected people know UB execs. Put the heat on.

If Gary from mypokerintel is reading this, can you send me the 8200 hands we have on him? At this point the evidence is overwhelming and getting those hand histories are crucial right now (even though I think everyoen would agree at this point that Nionio was not just some random donk who ran hot for 8,000 hands)

Should we all start emailing UB and try to put some pressure on them for some answers?

dlp, tramp:

Random thought. Consider how many times in games 25/50+ you had some random sit down that you've never seen before. He gets lucky and stacks people once or twice, then leaves. You never see him again and never think about him again. Cranking through tons of accounts like that would be a pretty sick way to cheat with this capability.

Please do, in fact I think the more emails the better. We need to apply the pressure to ub

This is the exact kind of thing I was saying when I made my post 2 weeks ago thinking I may have been cheated. I likely wasn't, but everyone who rightfully shouted "sample size" is now seeing the effect of an accumulation of hands. Many said "if he's a cheater he'd have cleaned you out" just don't understand how a smart cheater would actually do it. In this case, only 15x more hands than I played, even between 3-4 different players, showed pretty conclusively something was up, and as I stated then, we have to be VERY diligent about this, as it is very obvious the sites themselves either aren't policing it at all or are doing a horrible job of it. I can't think of a single "major" online poker scandal that wasn't outed by players rather than the cardroom itself. Maybe the PS Main event last year? I mean;


1. Planet poker algorhythm hacked: Hackers themselves exposed it(?), supposedly math guys showing the fallcies?).
2. JJProdigy: HE blabbed about it and screwed himself.
3. ZeeJustin: Busted by players.
4. FT HU Limit bot: Players.
5. AP Superuser: Players.
6. PS ME: ?
7. UB Superuser: Players.

Any I missed?


Bottom line, as most have ever said, online poker is definitely CYA, unfortunately, especially from the poker room's point of view.

fwiw this is why for the last 8 months i haven't had a dime on any site other than stars and ftp, and why i keep two thirds of my roll on stars.

GOG, why did you get sketched out while losing at PLO?

I don't understand this. PM me or something.

Two quick points:
1) I assume that attainable winrates at HU is more than at 6max (more decisions, etc.). The data that I had comes almost entirely from 6max (a little fullring and a tiny amount of HU)

2) Your results, while obviously above average, seem to fit in with the data.

No, not all sites do. It comes down to how you program your software in the first place, and whether your server is able to output the hands while they're in play.

Obviously sites can look at hole cards after the fact, but the leading, credible ones, can not look at your cards during play.

This is all right - and can only be done by UB.

If someone from UB was to look into this and send me the information (PM or email) then I'd be happy to maintain any anonymous confidences as desired.

You say to UB: "WTF is happening here?"

They either say there was cheating or there was not.

If they say there was no cheating, you ask for an explanation.

If they say there was cheating, you ask for a refund.

If you're unhappy with their performance, you ring up the police wherever they are located and report a $800k (or whatever) fraud.

i read through the 3k hands we already have him during my flight home. i went from being 98% sure he was a superuser from trambo/daves initial info to being 99.7%.

hopefully we can get his other hands played, and i will likely post my thoughts later

I am pretty sure i played with this guy in limit 08. It was a very short session where he killed me and left to go play higher.

It was a weird session, some of the hands were even weirder, and I was slightly suspicious at the time with no other knowledge. I don't use pokertracker so I can't back anything up.

For some reason, I remember this player from full tilt, but I could just be getting mixed up. Does anyone know if a player of this name also played there?

J_V,

i tried transferring funds to 'nionio' on both ftp and stars. on ftp it said there was no such player on their network. there is on stars, and his location is 'surrey'. obv not saying there is a connection, just stating info

Josem,

since each orbit of poker played is independent(ish) of the other orbits played, the total amount won will converge to a normal distribution as more an more hands are played. And thus the variance of the total amount won, as more hands are played, will converge to being proportional to the square root of the number of hands played

The only question is if after 8k hands one's total amount won is close enough to a normal distribution, and if each orbit is independent enough to other orbits

The first question a math guy should be able to easily answer for us. The second one is tricky, but intuitively it doesn't seem like a huge factor here (huge factor meaning say changing the answer by more than one st. dev.)

In any case, even if you only stick to samples of around 8k hands, it would be far better to scale the winrates in this way than to do nothing at all to account for differences in the number of hands played

While the stats are weird I don't think the winrate is really ridiculous over such a small sample. With no hu cash experience I decided to start playing some about 6 weeks ago and ran at over 50ptbb/100 for my first 3650 hands. This is the graph of it and I'm by no means a good player. While it seems that it should be tougher to have a winrate like that vs. elite competition I don't think its unfathomable. With those stats it is tougher, but I still don't think we can chalk it up to more than just variance with the information we have here.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=3683

Were any of the AP dudes Greek, graduated in 99 (nionio in Greek), and living in England or British Columbia?

I am pretty sure that something in the big AP threads said that AJ Green was from Vancouver...? I know he was Canadian, and I believe went to high school in a Toronto suburb, but then had lived in Vancouver (Surrey is a city nearby). I'm not 100% of the preceding, but maybe Nat can confirm/deny. Regardless, this info is only going to stoke the speculative fires, but it's very, very far from anything actionable.

Absolute also has offices in the Vancouver area that most of the AP scumbags worked out of or traveled to at one time or another.

ALSO: stop spreading the misinfo that "nio" is "nine" in Greek. It's not. It's "nine" in Swedish. In Greek, nine is "ennea" or "en nia"

Do you live under a rock??

TO TRAMBO OR WHOEVER ELSE IS COMPILING THIS BIZ

This is Rollover2k on UB.

I have roughly 500 hands on PTO of Nio playing 10/25 PLO.

~$26,000 profit, roughly 77 ptbb/100, playing 65/42
(a little more acceptable in PLO.. but still)

Aggression factors way inconsistent with a good laggy player, roughly 1.5, 1.5, 3.8

Let me know who to send any of this to, and/or what type of format.

I'm down 14k to him, would obv like to see something done.

Alright, http://www.mypokerintel.com has sent out all 8200 hands. I forwarded them to omniheart and hes currently uploading them as we speak. Our next step is to email UB and try get the same hand histories except this time with the holecards of nionio

Soul owned....

Hand #44593996-2988 at Ann Arbor (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 04/Aug/07 04:24:40

NioNio is at seat 0 with $22397.70.
_advanced is at seat 3 with $11864.60 (sitting out).
CormorantCarl is at seat 4 with $19149.
The button is at seat 0.

NioNio posts the small blind of $50.
CormorantCarl posts the big blind of $100.

NioNio: -- --
CormorantCarl: -- --

Pre-flop:

NioNio raises to $300. CormorantCarl re-raises to
$900. NioNio re-raises to $1500. CormorantCarl
re-raises to $6400. NioNio calls.

Flop (board: 8c Jd Ts):

CormorantCarl goes all-in for $12749. NioNio calls.


Turn (board: 8c Jd Ts 6c):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 8c Jd Ts 6c 3h):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

CormorantCarl shows Ks Ah.
CormorantCarl has Ks Ah 8c Jd Ts: ace high.
NioNio shows 7c 7h.
NioNio has 7c 7h 8c Jd Ts: a pair of sevens.


Hand #44593996-2988 Summary:

$1 is raked from a pot of $38298.
NioNio wins $38297 with a pair of sevens.