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HSNL FEBRUARY (2009) **** THREAD HSNL FEBRUARY (2009) **** THREAD

02-21-2009 , 11:34 PM
i haven't seen poker after dark yet, is it any good?
02-22-2009 , 12:34 AM
T Caby looks so damn serious on PaD.
02-22-2009 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicNinja
your analysis here is ok but you didn't include the chance that doyle has: A6s (a hand he'd usually play like this) or any other 6 (a hand raptor splits with, which completely changes the probability that doyle has KJ. doyle having a 6 helps raptor etc). Also i'd be surprised if doyle mucked K6s on the button v cutoff. the hands raptor splits with are probably 36s 46s 56s 67s 69s. i think doyle probably mucks the 6Ts pre. i can't be bothered doing the math here since it's pretty boring spot but i like daves fold as well. doyle could even have kings or jacks hoping one of the crazy cardrunners morons squeezes the 27 in the blind.

also doyle is more likely to rr preflop w/ KJo than 56s which changes things as well. maybe this is not true.
Yeah, I left out A6s because I added some of the times Doyle fold the 86o instead of calling; too lazy to switch the hands in the range From the viewing, I think Doyle is more likely to fold K6s than calling it, though there are still more hands that beat us. I still call haha.

One thing is if we add "36s 46s 56s 67s 69s" to Doyle's range, then we should call more than fold.

But yeah, boring math spot. I just wanted to see what others think.
02-22-2009 , 12:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lwrunner103
T Caby looks so damn serious on PaD.
Gabe's playing style is kind of cute and goofy.

I like how Cole made it $7200 to go pre-flop from a $800 straddle because he knew Eli was going to call pre-flop and check-fold flop.
02-22-2009 , 12:42 AM
i felt so dumb when i im'd my friend asking who the kid talking to raptor is and he said cts =\
02-22-2009 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LetMeLive
i felt so dumb when i im'd my friend asking who the kid talking to raptor is and he said cts =\
Are you serious?
02-22-2009 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lapoker17
doyle made a bad read and was sure he had the best hand. raptor knew doyle thought he had the best hand. there's 1 hand doyle can be raising for value that raptor beats and he may not even raise that hand every time, and its a very bizarre spot for doyle to be bluffing.
tbh im kinda shocked doyle value raised kj there.

fwiw if you lump chops (not too many combos of chops, basically just 76c and 65c) obv it gets closer, esp as raptor is getting a good price. i mean does doyle ever have K6 or J6? I don't think so... JJ rarely.. it's one of these spots that if you include KJ it's an auto call, (but who can blame raptor for feeling doyle would never value raise kj there?) but basically it's A6s or nothing, and there's just A6cc, so, i think it's a call...
02-22-2009 , 03:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlowHabit
On the river, there are 3 KK, 3 88, 3 86 that beat us. There are 9 KJo we beat.

Assuming Doyle raises the river half of the time with KJ (4.5), we are good 33% of the time against his river range. The Dino was risking 40k to win 128k (so 3 to 1) so calling is profitable.

If assuming Doyle raising half of his KJ is too optimistic, we can lower his frequency to 1/3rd of the time and our call is break-even.

There were a few more factors that lead this into a call during this particular session. The Dino is an internet player and cannot fold KQ/AK (see his KQ call vs Gabe on a Q6543 board when the 72 bounty is on. What can he beat besides a rando hand; Gabe had a rando hand. Doyle must've seen this). Doyle was caught bluffing Cole on a paired river and showed when he could've mucked. Now, there's more incentive for Doyle to use the, "they saw me bluffed big earlier, I'm going to get paid off on this hand." There was also a hand where he c/r Taylor huge on a paired flop. With these factors and Doyle thinking he had been raising aggressively, Doyle is more likely to raise KJ on the river than not.

DISCLAIMER: If my math is wrong, then FML.
your math is wrong bc it ignores both A6 and 6x, (esp as you lump 86 in there) further if you assume he can have KK or JJ (JJ may fold on flop or turn IF just cold called) he could also have AA, which is just as apt to value raise as KJ.

basically, those factors point toward a call regardless.
02-22-2009 , 03:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicNinja
your analysis here is ok but you didn't include the chance that doyle has: A6s (a hand he'd usually play like this) or any other 6 (a hand raptor splits with, which completely changes the probability that doyle has KJ. doyle having a 6 helps raptor etc). Also i'd be surprised if doyle mucked K6s on the button v cutoff. the hands raptor splits with are probably 36s 46s 56s 67s 69s. i think doyle probably mucks the 6Ts pre. i can't be bothered doing the math here since it's pretty boring spot but i like daves fold as well. doyle could even have kings or jacks hoping one of the crazy cardrunners morons squeezes the 27 in the blind.

also doyle is more likely to rr preflop w/ KJo than 56s which changes things as well. maybe this is not true
.
im going to go out on a limb and say bolded is not true. but it doesnt change the analysis much.
02-22-2009 , 06:28 AM
I would of thought before the hand Doyle would raise the river there with KJ like 25% of the time tops.
02-22-2009 , 06:57 AM
Ok in seedy la strip club. Clownie gowen walks in. My drunk Finnish friend yells her name and she runs out the front door so awesome.
02-22-2009 , 09:16 AM
CLOWNIE!!!!!!!!111111
02-22-2009 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJayOrTJ
Ok in seedy la strip club. Clownie gowen walks in. My drunk Finnish friend yells her name and she runs out the front door so awesome.
haha the look on her face was priceless
02-22-2009 , 01:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeeJayOrTJ
Ok in seedy la strip club. Clownie gowen walks in. My drunk Finnish friend yells her name and she runs out the front door so awesome.
haha, awesome
02-22-2009 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nielsio
Are you serious?
yes
02-22-2009 , 02:50 PM
is cole constantly biting on his lips? looks pretty uncomfortable
02-22-2009 , 03:59 PM
that avatar asking that question is v amusing to me
02-22-2009 , 04:40 PM
Looking for last min action on the Oscars tonight.

Maybe something like a headsup ballot v. ballot for 500 or so. Oh, and you have to pick a winner in every category.

PM if interested.
02-22-2009 , 06:15 PM
All,
I just posted this in sports discussion.

Looking for 5 people in an oscar pool. 1k buyin.
All categories with 5 nominees are eligible.
I use a random number generator each participant gets assigned a number.
I use a random criteria like alphabetical order, length of nominees name, etc. and you get those horses.
Eg with 5 people 1,2,3,4,5 if I chose alphabetical order

1 gets Frost Nixon
2 gets Milk
3 gets Slumdog
4 gets The curious case of ben button
5 gets the Reader.

Best actor
1 gets Jenkins
2 gets Langella
3 gets Penn
4 gets Pitt
5 gets rourke.

Dal kid,

If you want to make it a real skill game, so you can use your knowledge of short animated films to gain an edge, I'll still probably be up for it, but would rather do this.
02-22-2009 , 08:46 PM
that sounds pretty cool Pudge, i'd like to have action on it without having to have an informed opinion about who will win. i am in if there is room left. just let me know where to send $.
02-22-2009 , 08:58 PM
After sitting actionless at a bunch of HU tables for hours today and seeing the fullflush/plastikcards thing, I thought of a fun idea. I'll pay 1k an hour for anyone to 4 table me at 25/50 HU PLO. I might not accept vs everyone but most who I wouldn't accept are either good friends or 500/1k players who wouldn't want to waste their time anyway. I might also quit someone who's being a huge nit, but I'd still play at least the first hour and pay up front. PM/AIM if interested
02-22-2009 , 09:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinger88
After sitting actionless at a bunch of HU tables for hours today and seeing the fullflush/plastikcards thing, I thought of a fun idea. I'll pay 1k an hour for anyone to 4 table me at 25/50 HU PLO. I might not accept vs everyone but most who I wouldn't accept are either good friends or 500/1k players who wouldn't want to waste their time anyway. I might also quit someone who's being a huge nit, but I'd still play at least the first hour and pay up front. PM/AIM if interested
I'll take this offer with like a $500 hourly at 10/20 for sure if you want; 25/50 I'll think about though, will let you know..
02-22-2009 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gordo16
I'll take this offer with like a $500 hourly at 10/20 for sure if you want; 25/50 I'll think about though, will let you know..
Equivalent for 10/20 would be $400, I'd probably do that sometime but have a taker for 25/50 already. Just IM me sometime if you wanna talk about it.
02-22-2009 , 10:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinger88
After sitting actionless at a bunch of HU tables for hours today and seeing the fullflush/plastikcards thing, I thought of a fun idea. I'll pay 1k an hour for anyone to 4 table me at 25/50 HU PLO. I might not accept vs everyone but most who I wouldn't accept are either good friends or 500/1k players who wouldn't want to waste their time anyway. I might also quit someone who's being a huge nit, but I'd still play at least the first hour and pay up front. PM/AIM if interested
plastikcards was bein paid $10k/30 minutes to 4 table fullflush at 100/200 iirc, so the equivalent to that at 25/50 would be 5k/hour so ur giving like 20% of what he was giving, just seems way less -EV what ur offering.. my two cents
02-22-2009 , 10:28 PM
dear fullflush: i will 4 table u at 100/200 for 9k/3o mins *** the competition.

      
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