Hero: 13.2k
Villain: 8.1k
Blinds: 10-25 no limit

Hero picks up AA in mp and opens to 125 (standard)
Button Calls
Villain in SB Calls

Pot: 400

Flop: A,J,10r

Villain checks,

Hero bets 475

But Folds

Villain Calls

Turn: 2 of hearts

Board: A,J,10,2 with two hearts on the board.

Villain Checks
Hero Checks for pot control.

River: offsuit 8

Villain Checks
Hero bets 1.4k
Villain goes all in for 6k more.


Hero?????

Standard fold?

Thoughts on all streets.

Lol sick bet sizing , why are you betting more than the pot on every street? Then out of nowhere checking turn back ?

hero checks for pot control

I don't really play stakes this high, but I don't understand the turn check back for "pot control."

As played, I would think you'd call if there's any chance at all he can be bluffing or value betting worse. What kind of player is he? Is he capable of showing up with worse sets here for value? Can he c/r bluff the river?

I would think that you've seriously underrepped your hand with this bizarre turn check back, so if he's not a nit who can only ever have KQ here, it seems like a call.

Plays more like 25/50.. My bet sizing is standard for game.

I'm sorry, I don't understand the bolting bolding...
Can you elaborate?

The thing is the villain is a calling station, didn't do any crazy raises in the six hours we played together but he is definitely a losing player

Do you think I shouldve bet the turn?

I really don't think kq shoves all in. Maybe flops two pair, or bottom set and plays slow knowing you will stab at it with Ax.

The turn seems to be a clear value bet. If we get check raised there by a station, then we can consider getting away from top set. Vs this kind of villian I am always betting turn for the simple fact that he calls with all 2pair, sets and is only raising kq

I have seen you post in LVL, posting legit stacks. I have a 3.5 bb winrate at 2-5 over 1k hours
You are obv a better player than I am.

Can you elaborate on the turn check? More than pot control

topset vs calling station, pot control should be the last thing on your mind

seriously if he's a station do not pot control turn. call river

I think we finally know Hellmuth's handle on 2+2.

lol this thread, 5 stars

So, you 5x pre and overbet the flop to potcontrol on a blank turn?

This is either level 7 thinking or a complete trainwreck. I know what I'd be betting on

You have to play differently with live "high-limit" games and the fishes that come with it. The dynamic is different and calls for unorthodox plays to mix it up. Unfortunately, live games sees too few hands per hour which forces you to play and make moves.

The beginning of the game 3x was considered a std pf open. Now, the dynamic caused it to become 5x live.

I said that I checked ott for pot control, but it was more for setting up a huge river. When you play bigger games, even the fishes are different and a calling station at the 10/25 game is different then a 1-3 or 2-5 calling station. Even a calling station isn't going to call 3 bets, and I felt that my hand was pretty solid to give a free card ott to portray weakness. My plan for the river was either to raise his bet into me, or get raised by the villain and for me to shove.

In the end the Villain simply raised all in against me, and my image at the table is a very solid tag pro, which made me think that V is not bluffing.

To summarize, the turn check was to induce big action on the river, but I reevaluated otr and didn't like the big all in.

My bet sizing pf is std, everything after is questionable.




In any case I do feel I botched the hand which is why I posted this hh on here.

People who over ship all in at these stakes tend to get owned super fast. The Villain is a calling station which made me feel that this big ai was not a bluff.

if you really dont think this calling station will call 3, bet turn>check turn and bet river.

grunching

to be completely honest i feel like we need a lot more info. namely reads, image, your perception of him, what you believe his perception of you to be, relevant history etc.

as it stands:

bet less otf, don't check the turn, bet less otr, & imo as played don't fold. your line makes basically no sense at all, and his doesn't really either unless you've been prone to overbet the hell out of your value range (in which case he is able to correctly put you on a set+) which would explain his decision to throw some rope & go for a c/r. but why wait until the river to do so.

but after potentially whiffing a turn c/r (and flop for that matter) he'd be way more likely to just lead out otr with most of his value range because you dont appear to want to bet given you checked an awesome turn barrel card. essentially your range is capped and i expect he doesn't even think you have hands as strong as top set in it from his perspective. maybe he thinks you can have & laydaown something like JT. not that i'm saying that's what he's thinking.

people very rarely c/shove teh river for 8k as a bluff live. which makes me want to fold. and also that he's doing it vs overbets also makes me want to fold. but i can't imagine him not betting KQ otr. or if he somehow has Q9 etc. he can't assume the 8 hits you all that hard, and if you weren't gonna bet a 2 that brought a FD he shouldn't assume you're gonna bet this river card all that often; and he should also assume you dont have the nuts even if u do.


idk, looks like he decided to check rip on the fly, but i'm having a hard time thinking up a flop c/c overbet range he could have that would decide to do this. hard to think he c/c more than pot w/ something like KJ.. he's oop and closing flop action so i feel like if he really wants to build a pot to get all in by the river then c/r flop is by far the best play. the fact that you're betting more than pot probably indicates your desire to continue with the hand (ie he probably perceives it as strong, and if it's strong [TT,JJ,AA,AJ,maybe AT/JT] he should c/r to build the pot for a turn bomb & river jam) which adds more wtf to his river c/r.


idk. i probably click call because i'm confused. why check a straight otr when you dont bet the 2h turn. why rip 4x for value if your range is SOMEWHAT capped (you cant usually have a hand that wants to gii because you didn't try to set it up ott) & it should be a pretty difficult call.

lets assume he doesn't have 79 often.. u really only lose to Q9s and KQ. i feel like his line is inconsistent with either.


arguments for calling: the inconsistency in his and your line. i dont think his line is that all great with KQ, and dont like yours with AA either. river check looks more defensive than it does like he's trying to induce cause it doesn't seem like you're betting, and if inducing why then rip 4x pot if he assumes you can't call w/o a REALLY strong hand, which it doesn't look like you have given the turn check. why c/c the nuts otf oop closing action HU w/ a psr of like 20 or something.

arguments for folding: he's check ripping over 200 bbz otr in lolivepoker. he's doing it vs overbets. you have the 4th nuts. it's not 1/2.


i'm still stumped, and i guess i'm giving my money to KQ or somehow Q9s. i still dont want to fold & feel so owned if we lose given lack of reads. maybe he does this sort of thing as a standard w/ nutty hands.


edit*
well, i even thoguht how lol would it be if the guy really peeled 79. and i got owned. i'm happy that i did feel like he couldn't be bluffing but pretty unhappy i decide to call.

i guess you both being so deep gives way more merit to floating the gutterball, but i'm still stumped by his decision to check it otr. must be more info you both have that i don't, ie he has to have some reason to believe you're gonna bet the river that i can't readily identify given the info.


nice fold :]

Thank you ship, for your thoughtful analysis, I enjoyed reading that over the typical ” why did you check you donkey” posts.

Not to be result oriented, but his check and betting ranges do not make any sense and because of that I had to go with a soul read and he just seemed too excited.

well now looking back i can understand his line now w/ exactly 79, but probably only that one. MAYBE Q9 for same exact reasons tho. being that he (correctly, as u had AA) reads you for a pretty strong *but non-nut* hand, he can't really c/r because you're not gonna fold. but having as much to play behind makes the IO skyrocket for him, esp if he doesn't think you can fold. so he just decides to check draw gamble on the 4 outter otf looking to c/r then bomb vs a 2nd bullet. he's forsure 100% folding to the turn bet, which is the obv 'BET THE TURN' argument. but agian, i am sosososo stumped by his river c/r.

it seems like you should own him in that regard, in that when you check the turn he's gotta assume you no longer have sets in your range (unless getting tricky obv, which is his read on your capability of doin that is completely unknown to me) and he should lead the river trying to get called by like AK or something. which it does really look like you have, something like 1 pair mayyyyybe JT,

i guess that's where i'm failing to make the jump though (and probably why it's been like 2 years since i played above 5/10 lol) and he DOES put you on a hand like AK, and thinks you are gonna bet the river thin given his line which looks like a weak SDV type hand.

cool hand, i kind of want to get flamed constructively by someone to see where i'm making incorrect assumptions though. i feel like i've recently been spotting tons of leaks in my game i was previously completely unaware of. maybe too many mttz / too much plo lol. i feel happy about strongly believing it's not a bluff, but again upset that i disregard that and decide to click call, even when i dont think he has a lot of value hands in his range. if he has mainily bluffs and no value hands that i can identify, but also 'cant be bluffing' i'm doing something wrong.

3 word game theoretical analysis: bet turn yo.

Interesting hand.
I'm assuming this is at Matrix, yeah?

If so, this is super read dependent. There is a young Indian guy in that game who is in love w the bluff c/r on the flop and river. Against him specifically I'm snap calling. Against some others I'm finding a fold (great analysis, I know). But in the end, you are right that there just isn't a ton of 8k all in bluffs in that game and sans read that skews it to a super tough fold that I'm likely to talk myself out of and end up hitting the rebuy button.

Nice fold.

river seems like easy check back for pot control

Does his name start with a "M"? If not then it's not him.

There are not a lot of 8k bluffs in this game at all haha...

Okay, so the turn check was bad, it's been established. As played, I think my preflop and flop played out fine.

What is our plan for the turn and river then? How much should I have bet on the turn and if he flats what do I do on the river?