Well there's 1350 in the pot on the turn, I say continue with the flop plan and bet 1600 so you can ship like 6k into 4550 on the river!

Yeah I prob just bet bet bet that board in your spot. You will find on the turn if you have him set over setted. If he's got q9 or picked up a flush draw on the turn to go w his pair and gutter (something like kjhh or qjhh, was the A a heart on the board?) then betting is a must. I like the pot/over pot bet vs a huge portion of his range, esp since it looks like you could have one of those hands and he could hero you w AK/AQ or even worse on both streets.

I just don't think you need to worry about pot control in that spot as much as value and protecting action and charging draws.

So as played the general consensus is to bet the turn. I would call/shove his raise ott, but if he flats do I bet again on the river? Are we never folding Top Set here?


More info: Villain is the biggest loser in the game but for some reason gives me lots and lots of respect and almost no action. I've shown him a few small bluffs, but he always laughs it off and says I always have it in big pots. My image against villain is super nitty/solid.


As played, after I folded he flipped his cards up and said "did you just fold a set? I can't ever win any money from you"

I didn't respond.

Congratulations on the PLO bracelet this year.

Thanks!

Still trying to figure out how serious this thread is. Villain calls an overbet with a crappy gutshot and you say he gives you no action? O_o

As for how the hand played out, if you're not worried about him shipping a smaller set or 2 pair we can pretty reasonably lay this down, this really isn't a bluffy line (though if anyone bluffs this way it's a random poor player)

pot control

I agree with this providing a safe card peels off.


Someone else besides OP mentioned checking turn for pot control. Is there ever a justification for that? Are we ever polarizing villains hand range to 12 combos of KQ? I think it would be a huge leak unless you had some crazy soul read where you are gonna get K/R on the turn. 98% of th time we have villains range crushed and even if they pick up flush draws with gutters we need to charge them to play.

If we do bet 1600 on the turn and get raised to say ~4400 is it an insta fold with 10 good outs, and that's given we are behind.

I'd bet 300 otf, 800 ott, and 2200 on the river and almost always call anyway c/r although I might be able to find a fold dependent on the villain...

lmao

Quick question:

So I know I played that hand horribly and shouldn't have folded, results aside. Looking back now the way I played I shouldve bet the turn and river or called. But how much does a soul read play here? Id like to say that I was pretty sure no one (except for a few whales) would bluff all in for that much in this game dynamic...

When villain raised all in I put him on 3 hands, JJ, KQ, or 9,7, which was least likely. I felt middle set wouldn't raise all in...


In any case i'm sure I could've taken it down on the turn, and just messed up this hand severely,

.

why are u thinking 97 and not Q9?

Ohhh noo I forgot to include q,9, which is highly likely as it's open ended on the flop.

I would have bet $850 on the turn seeing as hes going to call with any Ax and even a pair with a straight draw. It all depends on your read of the player but by the sounds of it I like the fold looks like Q9 for sure. GL keep grindin

wouldnt that make his range super wide and therefore villain is more likely to bluff. just because hes a station doesnt mean he isnt capable of making a move.

Only a few select whales in the game are able to check raise bluff that much. Most of the time that large of a bet = perceived nuts.

at first i thought this was some kind of level/gimmick?

after reading replies i guess you are cereal.

turn check is lolbad, as played snap river ainec, sheeeesh.

i mean, im all seriousness, any nutted hand is almost always c/ring the flop or leading the river amirite?

FYP
lol jk


I'm not even being sarcastic when I say I think I'm outmatched in the big game although I am winning (heater prally). Like sometimes I do something and right away I regret it because I know it's the wrong play but it gets the right result.

Sh*t

I dont know what pot control is when I flop top set...

Man, I play micros and even I thought your turn check was horrid.

Yes, especially if he is a station. I would be planning to bet all three streets for value here, but heavily reevaluate if he raises at any point.

In this spot, if he's a generally loose/passive stationy losing player, this actually starts to look like a fold. We assume this kind of player can't be c/r bluffing the river here, so the question becomes more about whether he can be doing this for value with worse hands--so we have to decide if he's stupid enough to think worse sets/two pairs are "the nuts" here enough to make him think he can confidently shove all the money in for value.

When loose passive stationy players make huge shoves like this, it tends to just be the nuts like always. So I am actually inclined to groan and fold this, unless we have some reason to believe he thinks worse sets and/or two pair constitutes the nuts here and would shove these hands for value.

But even most live fish are smart enough to realize that two pair/three of a kind isn't the nuts on a board with two different possible straights--it's conceivable he could do this with JJ/TT/88, but he can also have KQ or Q9 pretty easily and he played it in a way that screams "OMG I HAVE THE NUTS!!!"

It's mainly dependent on how strong a hand he needs to think he has the nuts, but he played it in such a "slow playing to underrep my hand and then making a ridiculous massive river jam to make up for my failure to build the pot more gradually" way that I think it may actually be a fold.

If you had bet the turn, he might have check raised, at which point you could probably call and then fold river if you don't improve. But as played you're in a ****ty spot and probably end up having to give him credit for KQ/Q9 and fold, since:

A) We don't believe he's smart enough to be bluffing here to rep the nuts (much less to be doing this for thin value expecting a light calldown to represent a bluff representing the nuts, lol), and
B) We don't think he's stupid enough to believe he has "the nuts" enough to play this way if he doesn't have a straight here.

I think this is what it comes down to, he is a fish, but not dumb. Fishes in big games are different then the fishes in small games. Fishes in big games like to put pressure with their money since it's usually uncapped.

Although this hand is standard barrel barrel barrel against almost everyone... lol

so what did he have

Should've clicked the spoiler.

in any case