From the Pokerstove FAQ:
It would be interesting to come up with some way to model:
1- the chance that we have the best hand vs a presumed range
2- the chance a winning draw will give us the best hand

Maybe then we could approximate the EV of post flop play (ignoring the characteristics of the opponent to simplify the model).

That's a very silly characterization by PokerStove, I wouldn't look into their FAQs much for help with strategy beyond the basics.

Estimate the chances that FTP players get paid now (post-buyout-news)?

A decent amount of the equity is in partial payments by the government/weird stuff like getting equity in a new site. I think the total equity is around 55% (which implies we're underdogs to get fully paid) but given substantial time/hassle it makes sense that the market is closer to 45 cents on the dollar right now. I would sell mine for 65c, would buy more at 25c (from someone who I had complete trust in about them following through, but unsure if they had information I didn't).

It's an interesting market. People are scared (correctly) of adverse selection - only getting a trade from someone who knows more than they do, and thus it being a stupid trade. Each side needs a substantial amount of edge to get in given this (above, I'm asking for 20c. If someone else also needs 20c to feel comfortable, it makes sense that a deal isn't ever getting done, which is why I haven't posted in the HSNL thread). It's also a market where time/hassle of money and reputation on both sides make things a lot more difficult.

I've spent a decent amount of time thinking about whether people's biases might mean that there's edge to be had in that market - if there is, it's likely going to be on the buy side at this point. There's an abundance of sellers in the market, and people aren't reacting to news super logically. They're also not doing well in factoring in partial payments into the analysis - I find it hard to believe we're not at least getting paid back something by the government if it comes to that. It's hard to guess what the expectation is there in that condition, but to pluck a number out of thin air, I'd guess it's like 20%. That may even be shaded low given my own bias against the DOJ, but I think most people act like this number is closer to 5%. And if you're getting an expectation of 20% even if FTP goes into bankruptcy and is never sold, then it's a little tough for 33% to not be a good buy at this point. This helps explain why some smart people like zachvac are starting to look for good buy opportunities.

The easy thing to think for most personality types on April 16th was that the money was in all likelihood safe. FTP was the 2nd biggest poker site in the world with no history of serious scams and massive, massive revenue. I've done some thinking about what the actual probability should have been on that date given what we knew then, and have come to the conclusion that at the time, a good estimation probably was about 80%. At the time, a lot of poker's best minds, and some merely decent minds like myself, were on the 95% (or even better) bandwagon.

Where did that bias come from? I have a few theories. One is that we're very biased towards insisting the legitimacy of online poker - yes, 60 minutes did a show on the scam of Absolute Poker, but that's not online poker in general, it's not this big scary evil that the general public can often make it out to be. We reflexively defend the fact that we play online poker whenever our friends say how dangerous it is to do that. And so on shutdown, especially government shutdown, we reflexively attacked the government's ridiculous stance (LOL LAND OF THE FREE) and with that came a defense of the sites. As it turns out, the government was actually 100% correct in shutting down full tilt poker (not PokerStars though), and our biases against the government and for good online poker heavily influenced our view of what was going on and what would happen later.

What's the easy thing to think right now for most personality types? I think it's pretty clearly that we're not getting paid. The government is going to screw you, and you certainly can't trust full tilt when they say anything positive. This is what most people believe, and I've fallen victim (again) to it myself, suggesting in NVG a very high probability that FTP was lying about having a serious investor interested right before Alderney gave its verdict, and being proven wrong about that now that Groupe Bernard Tapie have stepped forward. Poker players put a super high value on not being naive, not getting duped, not getting bluffed/run over. They are extremely cynical about authority. Those biases may be leading to much more negativity about the equity of FTP $ right now. You'll unfairly look much stupider in the eyes of the community for saying that we'll get paid and being wrong in the end, than if you say we won't get paid and being wrong in the end.

I would predict a pretty good chance of a lack of big news over the next 10 days or so, which will drive the market down further from people starting to think it's all a ruse and just wanting to get something from their money, which may produce some decent buying opportunities around 35%, even though we're a dog to get fully paid.

loling at your stock job influence in that response.

markets and insider info.

Pretty ridiculously high. Started to become more reasonable after I graduated college and got my own places/bought own food etc but still was making way more than I took in.

These days I have splurged a bit on a nice apartment, a nice TV, nice furniture, etc, but I think livb once famously said something like his expenses were 50k/month, so no, I don't quite live like that.

h00tz PMed me that I missed his question, please feel free to do that (or just post ITT) if it happens to you, will answer anything or at least give some sort of non-response

1. Definitely still profitable. Best longterm ROI depends on stakes and stuff, there's a sweet spot around the 100s where you can maintain a pretty sick ROI but you're just throwing away money by not moving up and aren't showing good poker sense at that point. 1% = hey at least you're winning more than a lot of people can say, 2% = legit decent print that money baby don't listen to the haters who say you suck that's a solid workrate, 3% = ooh ok you legit sexy mmm girl, 4% = alright I'm not saying that ROI deserves to be in a porno because it doesn't but it's still rather large, 5%+ = GOAT potential don't waste it.

2. Some people have asked me about them - my snap judgment is that they are less profitable than the "normal" ST structure, but beatable.

Hello! Where can i find video which u talking about? Sorry, i am noob)

Hahaha what!?

Does Liv even make $50k/month?? And how the hell do you spend that without a LV baller life?

An agent, lots of travel, lots of hair gel, private investigators to get dirt on other people's marriages...it adds up man.

How safe would you have rated FTP money for non-US players the day before its license was suspended? What if you'd known that FTP hadn't paid back its US players, but didn't know that PokerStars had?

If you run this queries in PPT the results match your empirical experience that T9o is easier to play post-flop than K3o because it will get outflopped less frequently:

How often does K3o gets outflopped against a 60% range?

PQL Query:
select count(equity(h, flop) < 0.5) as outflopped
from game="holdem", h="K3o", villain="60%"
where equity(h, preflop) > 0.5
Results:
Trials OUTFLOPPED
600000 206811 (34.47%)

How often does T9o gets outflopped against a 60% range?

PQL Query:
select count(equity(h, flop) < 0.5) as outflopped
from game="holdem", h="T9o", villain="60%"
where equity(h, preflop) > 0.5
Results:
Trials OUTFLOPPED
518137 150725 (29.09%)

Can you expand on your 80%? My hindsight thoughts have all been that people who actually called FTP pre BF for what it turned out to be post BF were the ones with more bias, as their reasons had no solid information or well reasoned backing, and that the 95% type were actually right at the time.

Given both PokerStars and FTP said they had our funds segregated and had two previously reliable regulators, 80% seems quite a bit low to me pre black friday.

---

The stuff that I think drives the FTP "buy" stuff down so much is 1) time and 2) trust.

I agree that the floor for FTP value is probably not nearly as low as many make it out to be, especially given how much the DOJ has seized and how much the owners have made over the years, there's gotta be some decent value there (plus liquidation of company assets). But those worst case scenarios take years to unfold, and if you buy somebody's FTP balance now, who is to say that their real balance is really that high? Who is to say that in 2 or 3 years they won't just be out of contact and keep their money if they need to sign for it/be the owner to request it?

That risk alone could drop buy value in most non high trust cases down to 10-15% from 33%.

Agreed that there could be some future buy value, but last I heard, since the conditional agreement, people that wanted to sell were asking for numbers as high as 85%, which is insanely absurd in every which way.

If they do announce a final purchaser, there could be sell value too, as I'd rather insta take 85-90% than have to wait out months to get paid, and the possibility of some restrictions/hurdles/delays/fall through and I can see some buyers thinking "85% and I'll get it in full in a few months? Valuetown!" Maybe I'm completely wrong on that point though.

I'd also imagine most that were desperate or scared or needed to sell have already sold, and that the market currently is just a bunch of people looking for a clearly great deal in a very volatile time.

That's not to say that there aren't any people with money on FTP that need it (there are, lots of them), but those that have waited through the months of ups and downs already I think are pretty well prepared to wait out another 10 days, especially since we've finally got some decent news between the conditional deal, Alderney saying they aren't barred from getting a future license and the DOJ's overly friendly statement about seized funds potential (they could've just reiterated that those funds were not contested in the past, which I believe is correct and I believe the sites never challenged those funds and told everybody they covered the losses themselves).

Feel free to destroy any of my above arguments, as this is your well and I'm challenging some of your statements and amending others.

It's not even only this. With K3, you're "hoping" for a K... with T9, there are many more combos of stuff you can hit.

Yeah that's what the numbers mean.

just want to say ty for making such good vids for husng.com

your probably the only coach for that site who i can continuously watch you're videos without getting annoyed, both because they all seem to have good sound (some sound like ****) and cause they're just good vids.

are you playing at all anymore, if so more live play videos or at least videos not using that ugly replayer ?

Some videos coming up soon of me reviewing student play (taped gameplay), I promise not to push the pause button too much

(will get back to earlier questions...)

are you going to cover anymore endgame play in husng?

its the "boom" thing atm so would be pretty nice i guess

20bb eff. stacks, op is loose passive fish, calls 90% pre, 90%cbets, 65% turn. What should we do with hands like Q5-Q2o, J5-J2o etc, which flops bad and is hard to barrel profitable?
Limping seems bad, cuz we let him see flops with hands like 65 and etc. Raising is also like burning money, cuz it's hard to hit flop. Fold seems best, but that leaves us with blinding down a lot.

Hey Mers,

Im a well-known HUSNG player at the stakes 100s-500s most of the time. I have decent stats in regspeeds and turbos but lost about 35k $ in 4,5k hyperturbos now Im feeling okay with my game and watched most of your videos, just dont know what to do to get better results.

Are you still coaching? And if so, how much do you charge?
Whats about the "read only" threads in this forum about hyperturbos? Didnt get how it works at all.

Id be happy if you could answer to this few questions.

p.s.: im a big fan of your videos

Thank you,

JackOrsen72

JO, what about your EV results at hypers?

Me or mers?

you jo = JackOrsen

Most of the games I unfortunately dont have in HEM but last 1k games or so I run a lot under ev.
So ev seems to be ok at all