Has anyone done the math with the new rake, how high itm% is needed to beat the game?

In reality it depends on how good you run at being dealt into higher prizepool games, and then how good you run in those games.

In theory though, assuming you run at EV in those, the long term breakeven ITM% is

100 * (buyin/avg. prizepool)

so that gives the following

BI($)		Prizepool		ITM%
1		2.79		35.84%
3		8.46		35.46%
7		19.74		35.46%
15		42.75		35.09%
30		85.50		35.09%

What's the numbers like with supernova rakeback?

$1 - 34.8% (= $0.98/$2.79, $0.98 being the effective BI)
$3-7 - 34.6%
$15-30 - 34.4%

But, as 1) life expenses need to be subtracted from RB from risk calculation purposes and 2) bankrolls are finite, the recommended ITM is 36%+.

This is perfect

There are a few differences, though.

1. There's one popping soundbit when you open a Pringles can, but as many as three when you open a Spin & Go.

2. Pringles are hypars* which can be stacked easily, while Spin & Gos are hypers which are better when tiled. * Hypar = hyperbolic paraboloid.

This made me laugh way more than it should have. ^^

Thanks

Lets say u have an itm% around 38, do u think they woud be worth grinding in the long run, or will the variance be to crazy to depend on making money from month to month ?

38% ITM (over a 500-1K+ game sample) is awesome at $3s+, if you have it (do you really?), surely grind them

I remember you said in another post that a sample size of 1-2k games is enough to find out your true ROI/hourly with the ChipEV model.

I now have >38% ITM after ~400 games. How confident can i be that this is sustainable for 30k+ games?

What if i still have 38% after 2k games? Whats my confidence level then?

I had an itm% of 39 point something after 400 games, it has now dropped to 37,4 after 1400 games, so only time will tell for u.

Im probably gonna give them a shot even with the rake changes, but if i dont make much $ or the variance makes me lose my mind(or if i hit the big jackpot) - i quit.

2k games? I had 5k-10k stretches in HU where i dominated peoples ranges and the other way round just as well. Why you think people have such long BE stretches? If you really could determine a true ROI in such a short time frame, winners would never have significant good or bad stretches but very smooth graphs instead.

Also those games are changing over time. So what you might have right now might not be valid in 2 months or in 6 months for that matter... So dont even bother talking about true ROI.

Des_Astar, we can't say that 38%+ is sustainable longterm if you have even 38.9% after 400 games. The 'confidence interval' of the ITM shrinks proportionally to the square root of the sample size.

E.g. right now we can say that, if you had a 'true' ITM of <36% in reality, the probability of you going on a heater and attaining 38%+ in the first 400 tourneys would be less than 10%; which gives you an imperative to act as if you had 36%+, i.e. play so far, unless a bigger sample proves you wrong. After 2K games, the 'confidence interval' shrinks by more than two times, i.e. if you sustain 38%, you can act as if you had 37%+ unless proved otherwise by further grind, etc.

Callme, we're talking about confidence intervals of ITMs here, which translate into thrice bigger intervals for ROIs; besides, real winnings are subject to bigger variance than all-in adjusted winnings. If you have a 'true ROI' of 3% in HU hypers, you might (in rare cases, ~ 1 time out of 40 for a given sample) have a breakeven stretch of 5K games in terms of actual winnings, but you're far less likely to have a BE AI-adj line over 5K games, it will most likely show 1.5%+ EV ROI. And during a long career, you're almost gtd to have such a stretch (BE actual winnings) at one point or another.

Thanks, 37% is almost acceptable with rakeback according to my goals if i manage to hit such numbers ofc.

Is there a link that would explain to a stats noob like me how to do such calculations (the math formulas and how they work)? I mean how do you figure out that its +-2% at 400 games and +-1% at 2k games?

That was fast --- 108k prize pool in 1 day of the change.



Lets see how many days(jk ofc weeks ) have to go to that happen again

first post to acknowledge how immensely tilting it is not winning the jackpot.

an HT playing for 90,000$ out of 30$ and no possible deal is so painful.

either way, can't complain much can I.

^ lol

and of course its the guy on the phone who grabs the 90k

I know. The limp / caller phone standard. Was about to get HU vs him 15/30 with 600 v 900 chips but lost a 3 outer against the shorter one. Stupidly can't feel that happy about the free 9K.

Time to hit 3000 multipliers. I like how their spinning wheel didn't have enough digits so they had to put 108k

Well at least statistically you will get another shot in ~199,999 games!

fail. luck has no memory, he has a 1 in 100k to hit next one.

That's what they want you to think!

you are due one in less than 98K now spamz!

I'm wondering if luck has memory cross sites. I sure hope not. Stars still owes me from eastgate running like the sun vs me for like $30k+, but I owe ftp because of running sick when moving up vs livb and the likes.

Edit: just hit a x25 on the $15s. It is coming I can feel it!

that's why I thought it was it, the 90K had to come - Stars owes me so much EV wise that it had to be. but yet another 3 outer.