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Originally Posted by ButterflySymmetry
Thanks @ashberj.
So it's been smthing like 2 years or so since I had a losing month. I think what helps this streak is making smart decisions and staying within the roll. Trust me, I wanted badly to play the Labor Day Tourney in Cincy, but I also need winning months that can provide.
BS !! (little joke there
) I have been reading your stuff for a while now, and this is the craziest, most foolish thing I have heard you say.
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I just can't risk a bad month.
This tourney is played on a single day. If it were played tomorrow, it would cost the same, have the same players, the same everything. In other words the "EXACT SAME EV" for playing it did today, yesterday, and "Last month".
It is crazy to be soooo locked into having a winning month that you will forgo Plus EV spots. If the tourney is NOT Plus EV, then play or don't, however you want. But you felt like it was worth it, then because of two coolers, decide NOT to play?
Have not really read anything in here that made me think you would not 'make it', till now.
the thing is even YOU know how lame it is. You will come back on this thread and say something like, "Yeah, I know, I am addicted to winning. It is irrational. I know, it IS all one long session" but you will not change.
Until you do.
Then one day you will start to let go of thinking in terms of months. Then you will start to let go of individual sessions (which it seemed you did after gettting right back on the horse the day after your two sick beats) and then, finally, you will also start to let go of individual hands.
The sick beats ? You made money on those hands. Every bad call made by your opponents --- you made money on those.
You just have not realized it yet.
Unless you are running way below EV, you are ahead of the game, right? Those calls you never saw what they had, but you won? All the times you made the exact same hand in the exact same situation, only this time their two outer did NOT get there?
If they have equity, and THEY lose, it is they who got the bad beat (in a way) until they finally DO hit the two outer, and collect for all the rest of the times, right?
So, to summarize.... it is one long session, and it is a good spot you should take it. Whether its a hand, a game that particular day, or a tourney that month!
And when they hit the long shot, they have paid for it with Sklansky bucks. And you won already.
which
PS I remember Limon in one of his posts said something like "When I make the prop bet, I have already won! The odds are with me!"