yes but you assumed a true 10bb winrate when analyzing your 50bi downswing as being unreal when in reality you don't know your real win rate and probability of losing 50bi.

IMO giving too much credit and time to variance calculators, and thinking too much about variance is a waste. It´s like a healthy adult crying and entering depression because one day he's gonna die. It´s inevitable, every single living thing in this planet should/will die, get used to it. These tools should be useful to estimate your bankroll needs, so you run things at an acceptable risk of ruin without at the same time keeping too much money parked in a poker site.

I had 2 downswings that I remember of over 50 buy ins over 16 years, it's definitely not normal to have it several times a year lol, well it's normal if you suck ballz I guess

pretty sure i sucked ballz during these 2 downswings

exactly, me and a lot of people thought this way and have done it. I have never played live so i was always worried about trying it alone, if its in your possibilities then you don't have anything to worry about. I wish i had gotten into live play for sure.

You really have no idea how good the bots are on partypoker and other medium sites, ive played on bovada and on the euro sites.. Bovada bots are fish compared to the gto mid stakes bots on euro sites.

I personally quit when i couldn't do better than 20 bi under ev per month every single month while having 3 colluding 0 mistake bot on every table. Studying 4+ hrs a day to turn medium regs into fish is not how i want to spend my time.

50bi downswings are not common but its still more common than running above ev like tgitty over his sample.

Makes it so much easier to play good when you sun run above EV.

Calculate how much tgitty spends if he had run the same amount under EV without playing any worse: he would broke or almost broke today.

what do you mean broke, if he was 22 buy ins under ev instead of 22 buy ins above ev?

You should learn to read because I never said that. I asked a question and you flipped out.

I don't disagree. It's just funny that people see what they want to see and will always cry variance! when they don't like it

Right, it's essentially impossible really to drop 50bi as a big winner in nlh games without playing poorly. It's kinda funny how usually guys like mirage would be telling me how **** I am at poker when I win but when I'm on a 50bi downswing they say oh no you don't suck we all lose 50+ buyins constantly that's just variance XD Poor guys don't know what it's like to have a positive wr

I've played on party/stars/gg. Just more regs/fish but the regs are still pretty bad at 200nl so idk what you're talking about tbh.

About half of players run above ev, about half below ev. You're saying it's more common to have 50bi downswings than it is to be among the 50% who run above ev?

If I had run 22 bi under ev this year I would be $4400 dollars poorer. I autodeposit $2500/month into one of my investment accounts. So I guess I would have $4400 less across my Fidelity index fund or individual stocks or coinbase account or binance account or my BTC wallet. ****, maybe I would have had to take 4 vacations this year instead of 5? Would have been tough because Cabo with the fam was awesome but columbia with the boys was a great time as well. Cancun with my boyfriend is something we do every year so can't cancel that... And hawaii is also a yearly tradition... Well we do mexico city 2-3 times a year so I guess we could cut one of those trips out. Thanks for helping me budget in case I run below ev next year (like last year)!

Last year at 500nl:



Good thing I always sun run!

Good posts op. MOAR high quality replies from thetyman9 and Xenoblade. Less RR or block him from the thread. I would reply to RR and Serouanaling, but it would be a waste of my time.

Sombering really what 2+2 has dissolved into.

just felt like pointing out this is wrong, given you're running 22 buy ins over ev currently, if you had run 22 buy ins under ev that would be 44 buy ins less, thus 8800$

not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things though

True lol that's why I don't play poker before coffee and a joint. Yeah I mean it would suck to have made 9k less this year but it wouldn't really affect my life day to day in any way (and if it did I shouldn't be playing 200nl or for that matter poker for a living) I would have had a bit less fun money to gamble on crypto etc but anyone who plays this game seriously should be able to go several months to a couple years on 0 or negative income and be fine. Otherwise you will definitely get wiped out at some point. Money management is way more important than being good at the game.

Also worth noting I've played $85k in mtt volume this year and only profited ~$2k. Obviously don't have a big enough sample to know my true roi but I'd bet it's more likely around 20% than around 2%. Career it's more like 50% but lol sample lol sun run of course

+1

Why is everyone letting a 10nl loser derail this otherwise very good thread? 40-50bi downers should be very uncommon for good NL players in soft games. If someone disagrees with this they're simply wrong and not very good, no need to go in circles about it!

Personally I find solver work much more interesting (and fruitful) approaching it as trying to understand what's going on rather than trying to memorize and apply solver strat at the tables. Agree with Xeno that tools like gtowiz or dto do a good job gamifying the process and making it more approachable, worth looking into if you don't care much about your own sims.

back to the torture. 60 bi downswing now. apparently KJo is a 5bet slam dunk call 6bet shove for 100bb sb vs utg when you know your K is coming and you put me on QQ

last 2 days is just...


iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 146.74 BB
MP: 118.04 BB
MP+1: 105.08 BB
MP+2: 101.53 BB
Hero (CO): 199.55 BB
BTN: 162.96 BB
SB: 165.73 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, BTN calls 10.5 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 7 BB

Flop: (33 BB, 3 players) 7 8 5
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 15.68 BB, BTN calls 15.68 BB, fold

Turn: (64.35 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 39.18 BB, BTN calls 39.18 BB

River: (142.7 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 32 BB, Hero calls 32 BB

Hero mucks T T (Two Pair, Tens and Fives)
(Pre 57%, Flop 72%, Turn 86%)
BTN shows A Q (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)
(Pre 43%, Flop 28%, Turn 14%)
BTN wins 204.7 BB

iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 114.51 BB
SB: 105.25 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 108.54 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 206.03 BB
MP: 95.5 BB
MP+1: 281.49 BB
CO: 28.46 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 7 J 7
Hero bets 2.57 BB, MP calls 2.57 BB

Turn: (12.63 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 18 BB, MP calls 18 BB

River: (48.63 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 182.47 BB, MP calls 71.94 BB

Hero mucks K K (Full House, Kings full of Sevens)
(Pre 78%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%)
MP shows 7 6 (Four of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 22%, Flop 91%, Turn 100%)
MP wins 190.5 BB



iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 90.73 BB
MP+1: 28.3 BB
MP+2: 100 BB
CO: 49.88 BB
Hero (BTN): 193.55 BB
SB: 99 BB
BB: 147.4 BB
UTG: 160.29 BB
UTG+1: 75 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) 7 8 3
BB checks, UTG bets 5.7 BB, Hero raises to 19.95 BB, fold, UTG calls 14.25 BB

Turn: (47.9 BB, 2 players) 4
UTG checks, Hero bets 34.43 BB, UTG calls 34.43 BB

River: (116.75 BB, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero bets 114.75 BB, UTG calls 103.41 BB

Hero mucks 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 19%, Flop 86%, Turn 95%)
UTG shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 81%, Flop 14%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins 321.57 BB


iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 32.5 BB
CO: 133.55 BB
BTN: 23 BB
SB: 112.85 BB
Hero (BB): 119.8 BB
UTG: 121.73 BB
UTG+1: 65.39 BB
MP: 106.75 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, CO calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) Q J T
Hero bets 12.69 BB, CO calls 12.69 BB

Turn: (47.88 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 33.41 BB, CO calls 33.41 BB

River: (114.7 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 62.7 BB, CO calls 62.7 BB

CO shows 4 A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 30%, Flop 11%, Turn 23%)
Hero mucks K A (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 70%, Flop 89%, Turn 77%)
CO wins 238.1 BB


iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 162.06 BB
BTN: 103.4 BB
SB: 103.93 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 60.25 BB
UTG+1: 101.5 BB
MP: 69.15 BB
MP+1: 259.88 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, MP+1 calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 2 A 7
Hero bets 7.69 BB, MP+1 calls 7.69 BB

Turn: (37.88 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 25 BB, MP+1 calls 25 BB

River: (87.87 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 56.32 BB, MP+1 calls 56.32 BB

Hero mucks K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 70%, Flop 94%, Turn 80%)
MP+1 shows J K (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 30%, Flop 6%, Turn 20%)
MP+1 wins 198.5 BB


iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 368.99 BB
SB: 100.63 BB
BB: 48.02 BB
Hero (UTG): 130.3 BB
UTG+1: 100 BB
MP: 197.24 BB
CO: 56.58 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG+1 posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has T K

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, MP calls 3 BB, fold, BTN raises to 11.11 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.11 BB, fold

Flop: (27.72 BB, 2 players) K 2 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 16.67 BB, Hero calls 16.67 BB

Turn: (61.05 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN bets 27.78 BB, Hero raises to 102.53 BB, BTN calls 74.75 BB

River: (266.1 BB, 2 players) J

Hero mucks T K (Two Pair, Kings and Tens)
(Pre 32%, Flop 20%, Turn 93%)
BTN shows J K (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 80%, Turn 7%)
BTN wins 264.1 BB

yay I guess?



made the final 2 tables of the $100/122k gt but lost 88 < 44. had a deep run in the main event too but just can't take anything down despite all the deep runs

Congrats!

About all that money stuff, imho your money management sounds rather absurd to me. You seem like a good player for when looking at your results. But you are saving a rather absurd ammount monthly for your income. Also the fact that you take 5 vacations per year. Not going to lie and say that there is some perfect numbers for vacations or saving. But it's extremely likely that as a 10bb winner at nl200 you are probably making 3bb/100 or something at 5/10. You would also be paying half the rake. Your lifestyle / money management is 100% not substainable at least. One could certainly argue about if poker is dying or whatever, I dont think it is. At least not for highstakes regs, but for smallstakes regs its 100% dying. If you look at how much the biggest winners at nl200 made a few years ago or even like a decade ago you would have guys making as much as 200-300k or so. Meanwhile today I would imagine its a very very small ammount of nl200 regs that make more than 150k per year. And on the flipside I think most highstakes regs have a way higher ev today than what they did 5-6 years ago. Given how much more/higher games run.

huh, I don't think I save nearly enough to be honest. But I don't think you can ever save too much if you are deploying it intelligently.

And yeah definitely not sustainable to travel that much (as a couple, if I was single I could easily vacation 5x a year and spend under 10k on travel) but it's not something I plan on doing every year. Definitely don't think I could beat 1knl and I prefer smaller swings at 200 vs trying to eek out a little more $ at 500 because I end up playing way lower volume when I try to play higher consistently. So much easier to deal with variance when the swings are usually $4k-6k vs $15-20k swings at 500nl (because lower wr also means bigger swings, more often) Also much harder to get good volume in when you move up (good volume meaning 2+ fish per table)

The margin trading account I opened ~2 months ago is going pretty well. My initial deposit was $500 and then soon after $2000 more for $2500 total initial investment. The account is sitting at $10,500 today after I've pulled out $4k to cover my initial investment and take a small profit. So up about $12k total shorting shitcoins. Peak profit was about 16k and just after hitting peak the account spiraled and almost liquidated at one point but it hung on and recovered. Maybe I get wrekt maybe this account hits 100k next year?

Do you split expenses with your boyfriend or do you just pay everything for him?

looking good OP, but stay away from gambling on investments & cryptos...

I disagree, the level of play in small stakes is insanely weak, it's very hard to find anyone at nl100 and nl200 not making basic mistakes, at nl100 on stars there are on average 2 fish per table and only 1-2 regs in the pool that are worth playing a reasonable poker strat vs them with legit ranges ott/otr, vs almost everyone you're better off going full explo.

And on bodog there are so many whales that it's possible to have a +5bb/100 winrate even by paying 7-10bb in rake

It is still possible to make a very good living at nl200 on bodog if you don't wanna have headaches and want to go full explo, tbh it's even better to go super explo because most people can't fight back at an anonymous site, maybe the top 500 regs can because they are so much better than those at 200

Btw, check KK on J77

disagree with expatrights, if there is a time where you want to start accumulating crypto its right now, prices are low, people are scared and think its the end, this is opportunity, this is high EV

Hard to split expenses with someone when average monthly income here is ~$800 for a 60 hour work week (take home more like $500/month because no contract wage theft is v common and impossible to do anything about - the worst offender of many was applebee's ). He's a trained chef and also does everything around the house so I went from eating out every day to eating out once every 1-2 weeks. He wants to go back to work but it makes very little financial sense to do so unless we move somewhere with higher wages because tbh the ev of having him not work is higher (not that life is all about ev

I'm curious what you would do with extra cash? Letting it sit around and lose value seems worse than just spending it all as you make it (if you aren't going to invest)


you aren't wrong but I disagree about checking KK on J77 fwiw, though I think I should have sized up because people will float QT/any gutter/any over card vs any reasonable size on that board. plenty of better hands to check for range protection

I disagree to be honest. I think we are still a long ways off from the bottom with a lot of these altcoins. BTC might not drop more than 50% from here, may not even drop much more at all. But every bull/bust cycle every alt drops at least 90% from peak and we have a lot movement left for that to happen on a decent portion of them.

Almost all my positions are heavily short right now but I don't have any exposure to BTC or ETH. Plan on buying BTC/ETH heavily late 2023/early 2024. After the 2017 crash we had 36 months to accumulate below the ath and the best accumulation point was over 2 years after the drop from peak. Right now were at just over a year. We are definitely due for a dead cat bounce but I don't see a sustained bull market coming in the near term.

If expat meant don't gamble as in don't try and short term trade crypto/equities it's good advice. If he meant it as don't buy and hold good investments obviously it would be bad advice.

I’m just not going to try and time the bottom, it could be the bottom or it might not, either way price is good enough to accumulate, I don’t really buy shitcoins though, just btc and eth

Yeah I know 90% of traders don't beat the market long term etc etc. You could say the same thing about poker though, 90% of players lose long term. People are dumb and markets are incredibly inefficient. Stocks I just buy and hold for the most part except for a little reallocation here and there but the way the stock market has been acting like crypto this last year has made me wish I would've traded much more actively.

Pretty fun to watch the talking heads who call crypto a scam because it moves +/- ~50% so quickly have to reconcile that with tech stocks dropping 90%+ after arguing that their supposed fundamentals and potential earnings made them immune to the kind of swings crypto markets face. I don't own any tech stocks but almost took shorts out last year on TSLA/META so I feel pretty dumb not making those plays when it was so obvious the free money that sustains those types of business models is drying up.

Fair, I don't think timing bottoms or tops is possible or smart to try to do. Honestly though I think we're going to see BTC break through 10k and keep breaking lower for a year or two so I'd rather invest elsewhere for now. And if I'm wrong about price action I still highly doubt I'm wrong about the next bull market not happening until 2024-25 so I have plenty of time to accumulate the chop in the meantime. But while btc chops in these bear markets alts get wrekt and hopefully I make some money.

Pretty sure it's even worse numbers than that in terms of successful traders, but it's more nuanced than that. There's also just tons of studies and data out there that seems hard to ignore. There is a big difference between there being some level of inefficiency in a market and being able to exploit that inefficiency for a +ev return. There are also additional taxes/fees involved that you have to account for as well. Along with the fact that there is a passive option available that involves much more minimal effort/risk/time. So not only do you need to beat the passive ROI. You have to beat the passive ROI by enough that it is worth the additional costs and the additional time invested.

Don't think poker being profitable for a small % of people has any relevancy to deciding whether or not to trade equities/crypto tbh. With poker you have way way more visibility on quantifying your edge, knowing exactly where your edge is coming from, knowing how much risk you are taking on trying to capture that edge, etc.

It just seems like you are falling into a dangerous trap of using info you know to be true today to feel like you should have placed a bet on something when you did not have that info. Sure you could have placed a short on meta/tesla thinking they were overvalued at the time, but after you did that the price could also easily have kept trending up and your position get closed out down a ton of money before the price ever fell. I also think it's unlikely you are spending tons of hours going through financial statements (while also knowing how to correctly interpret all these financial documents) to arrive at this conclusion that a certain company is overpriced.

Hope I'm not coming across harsh on any of this. At the end of the day it's your money to decide how to invest/how you want to invest your time/how much risk you want to take on. I just think it's worth pointing out since the downside potential is so substantial.