Welcome to normal poker like the rest of us. The fact you are only only just encountering something like this is hilarious.

50 buyin downswing basically never happens if truly have 10bb/100 winrate, so either true winrate is lower or since you're including apps there of course could be sketchy stuff happening. Enjoy the beach!

He never had a 10bb win rate.

A 6 bb/100 true winner can run between -0.32 bb/100 and 12.32 bb/100 with a 95% confidence interval. This guy can see a bigger than 50 BI downswing, but it´s a rare ocurrence (the unluckiest 10M sample I got saw 2 downswings of that magnitude, 59 BIs and 57 BIs). I did put 100 bb/100 std dev, which is probably too high if you mix a lot of full ring.

Yeah it's likely a lower true wr from playing worse while 8 tabling cash vs 4 cash 4 mtt grind being a bit easier. Had a semipunt here or there while not playing A game too so it for sure wasn't a sample where I was playing 10bb/100 poker even if I ran at ev. Thanks!


Thanks. Though I think std dev on the apps could be 150+ with there being almost no headsup flops even in 3bet pots. But fr is definitely below 100 so even a 20 bi downswing is very rare.

Lol ok mirage.

I think the graphs disagree with you but whatever. You've been trolling me across multiple accounts since 2017 so keep enjoying 10nl I guess

Most people i know have quit poker after a decade+ because they've ran like this for 2-3 years straight at some point in their career, most of us have played 10x the amount of hands you've ever played. It's EXTREMELY NORMAL. Most people have this 2-4 times per years unless they table select like complete madmen and play 16hrs a day to be able to get a good amount of hands in because of that extreme table selecting.

You have it extremely easy being able to play on 2 sites with 10% the amount of bots that other sites have and your bots are not GTO bots that would beat or almost beat doug polk and the likes.

You know poker players who had breakeven stretches that lasted 2-3 years? Are you sure that wasn't the last 2-3 years of their career? Doesn't sound like something you come back from and doesn't sound extremely normal tbh.

Idk about that second point. I think all the random apps and clubs have a lot more botting and other shady **** going on than regulated sites. I get it though, some reg sites don't have any fish/punters left so even if you can trust the games why reg battle?

If I was playing against better competition or had downswings like this more than once a year I would have moved on from poker a long time ago too. If there's no easy money what's the point? I decided a while ago that if I ever have to do off table work/solver work to win I'll just go play live or do something else that prints easy money. Sometimes I pray that day comes sooner than later so I have to figure it out and move on to better and more interesting things

solver work can be pretty interesting, not sure why you wouldn't want to do any of it? kinda helps map out ranges in your head and be a bit more precise with your bluffcatching etc.

doesn't prevent you from table selecting and trying to get the easy money either

Why not just do it now for an indefinite amount of time?
Seems like the worst that can happen is you get a mental reset when you start playing a lot online again.
Don’t see any reason why taking an online break would be a negative thing if it’s feeling so awful lately.

I guess I never wanted to invest thousands of dollars into buying ranges and then feeling compelled to spend dozens of hours diving into that side of things. I'm sure over the long run the time/money invested in solver work pays off but I'm the type who will waste the money and not put the time in after so it isn't worth it.

I've also always felt that it would be one of those things where I will probably get somewhat worse before I get significantly better because so much of how I play is pure instinct based on knowing how spots play in certain pools and deviating from that instinct will likely hurt me in the short run. So there's always been this feeling of not trying to fix what works. I'm also never going to play games where its 5 regs/1 fish and very very rarely see hu spots. The 4-7 way flops where every hand is a donk lead/3bet flop are probably hard to run through a solver I imagine lol. These app games I play in avg more players to the flop than the live games I'm used to.

I definitely would but I live 3 hours and a border crossing from the nearest 5/10 that runs consistently. Could get to a 2/5 in about an hour if the border is easy but ime san diego casinos are small and difficult to get a seat if you show up after noon. I've talked with my boyfriend about the possibility of doing 3-4 day trips once or twice a month to go grind hard but you lose so much with travel expenses that the numbers never really make sense compared to just grinding at home.

I also always get a thought that creeps into my head: "If you think you're running bad playing 400 hands an hour imagine how you're going to feel getting to peel 2 flops per hour." Doesn't help that I've lost something like 8/10 of the last live sessions I've played so it gets in my head that I could easily play live poker 50 hours/week for 2 months and the sample size would still be so small that variance would entirely dictate the results.

But I should probably do it just to mix things up. I still remember how good it feels to have so many chip racks under each arm that it makes walking to the cage a mission.

def don't need solver work for massively multiway pots, usually too many recs involved and your instinct should be plenty, guess if you never play 5 regs 1 fish tables then it's probably not necessary, however I think programs like DTO or GTO Wizard are very user friendly and being interactive they feel like a game moreso than studying, it's also not that expensive so yeah I'd recommend that for someone like you who's dreading working with an actual solver

Thanks Xeno, I'll look into those.

God we're so stupid. It's amazing to me that there's another person as stupid out in the world as me. Two full ring playing no solver work idiots out in the wild. Lol. I might have you edged out a bit in stupidity though because I was literally no HUD up until 2021. At least you've got youth as an excuse for your stupidity. What the **** is my excuse? Anyways I plan on getting pio eventually and doing some solver work so I can be one of the cool kids.

I think we've both proven you still only need a little smarts/intuition to play poker for a living if you don't care about climbing to the top. You never post graphs though so I've always been curious what kind of bb/100 or roi you manage? You're so much nittier than I am that I've always figured you would have a hard time doing more than around 5bb on ignition but I could be way off.

Anyway I don't think I can count youth as an excuse for being lazy or stupid anymore now that I'm closer to 30 than 20. And you've got less than 10 years on me so it's not like you're an old man lol

I don't post graphs because I'm embarrassed about my crappy ~2-3bb/100 winrate with very little volume. That's why I need to start studying solvers lol. I don't even know what a proper opening range is, like I've never even looked at a chart, that's how dumb I am.

There are aspects of solver work that can be interesting but I think it varies person to person whether you find that type of work interesting. Personally I find it very dry although I think part of that is just being in the game so long that I don't feel the passion to learn and grow in poker anymore in the same way. Imo the game was much more interesting when you were just playing and trying to figure things out on your own/from talking it through with others as opposed to it being more like studying a textbook. Using new study tools can also be intimidating. There are a lot of people out there using these tools incorrectly so sometimes it feels easier to stick with what you know if it's working pretty well as opposed to taking a risk that you'll be one of the people misusing the tools or drawing incorrect conclusions from them.

+1 for GTO Wizard though, running your own sims in PIO is better if you are using it correctly but for most low/midstakes regs GTO Wizard makes it way simpler and intuitive and it's a quality/inexpensive product.

Agree with tgiggity, idk why anyone would choose to play poker for a living if forced to play in games like you described. These people must have either had very low winrates or must have been playing plo or large field mtt? Harsh swings are definitely very normal if that's the case but seems like a lot of mental punishment to subject yourself to for not a very significant financial upside.

is this guy trolling you are well ?

Im not trolling, whats your life sample anyway? 500k hands? Players who have played serious volume laugh when you get shocked by normal variance because its actually common yet you are mind blown which is why its obvious you have been running in the top 1% your whole career.

Some guy: you clearly don’t understand variance.

Same guy: it’s obvious you’ve run top 1% from some graphs I’ve seen in passing and because I understand variance.

You hit the nail on the head with everything there. Couldn't have said it better.

Winning is winning. And you made me feel better. At least I can be king of the badregs

I've played 500k+ hands over just the last 11 months including apps. If 50bi downswings are not surprising for you then you should probably move down from 10nl. Like I said, you've been in my threads since 2017 screaming "SUN RUN" and yet here we are 5 successful years later and you still can't wrap your head around the idea that you just aren't very good at poker and some other people are.

Not that I really care and personally I sometimes post more when I'm running like **** than when I'm doing well, but you know it's people like you that make people like me not want to share results when they do poorly? I get that you like to make yourself feel better about your own lack of poker success by focusing on narratives that to you prove no one can beat the games or that all regs are really just breakeven over the long run but honestly it's kind of sad to see you around for so many years and still so bitter. Maybe poker just isn't for you?

Lol, for mirage it's a binary analysis. He simply asks: Do you win? Yes = top 1% sun runner.

You have no idea about my results you are just assuming. Anyone with a poker brain knows you have never played around with a variance calculator when you cry about standard downswings and claim your a 10bb winner (lul). You will be busto eventually, the heaters always dry up even after 5 years. I hope you at least invest in a nice caravan before that happens so you don't even up living in a car like your mate Rick

Not assuming, I've seen your posts asking about 10nl hands you played. Again, it reads like you think 50 bi downswings are normal in hold em. They aren't. If you are downswinging 50+ bi often then it is extremely unlikely you can be better than breakeven long term. Play around with your variance calc and you will see that.

I don't claim I'm a 10bb/100 winner. I just let graphs speak for themselves




inb4 that's 9bb not 10!

inb4 but you ran above ev so it doesn't count!

inb4 sample size! ( you can also go back and find my 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 databases that were all around 7-11 bb/100 and posted publicly)

I get it. In your eyes it doesn't matter how many millions of hands someone plays; they will always be sun running if they won money. I'm only replying in case anyone doesn't remember that you're mirage, the 10nl loser who gets mad when someone wins money at the pokies because you can't figure it out

So you don't understand the difference between current win rate and actual real winrate. Thanks for proving your reg fish understanding about variance. 50bi downswings are normal but not common. Most high volume regs have a few of them a year. You know what isnt normal? Never having one for 5 years until now. I don't even play 10nl, keep trying.

No one can know their true winrate especially because even after you have a large sample the landscape of the games can change. However it seems reasonable at this point that we can conclude that he has a very high winrate in the games he is playing. Does that mean he has a 10bb true winrate, no, but I'd be shocked if it's less than 6bb/100 specifically in the bodog games. There is a huge difference in swings for someone grinding with a 2-3bb/100 winrate in tougher games and playing 6max with a higher std dev, than someone grinding most of their volume at full ring on a soft site with a lower std dev. Even at 7bb/100 you are extremely rarely seeing even 20ish buyin swings. 40-50 buyin swings just are not happening in those games if you actually have a great winrate. You can see this in the variance calculators but I also know this from personal experience as well. All this stuff is relative to the game type you are playing and your winrate vs the field. There are obviously lots of great players out there studying hard and going through much bigger swings regularly, but it's because they are playing game types that naturally have bigger swings for a variety of reasons.

No one knows their actual win rate. How many millions of hands would one have to play before you would think their wr is somewhere close to the actual result? I'm sure it's a number no one would ever realistically play so you can say anyone crushing after 2 million hands is just sun running and will lose it all if they just play a few more hands.

And of course regs with lower winrates will have larger downswings more commonly than I will. Do you not understand how winrates affect variance?