I think I am 5-6bb lifetime and have had many 40-50 bis.

A few reasons variance calculators are wrong:

1) everyone plays worse whilst losing

2) we measure our downswing from the most extreme point, so if you play 1 million hands, you have a 50k sample starting at hand 1, a 50k sample starting at hand 2, a 50k hand sample starting at hand 3, etc etc.

So the chance of a 1 in 10,000 run occuring over a 50k hand sample occuring is actually quite high


It may be that I am wrong and I'm just in the bottom 10% in terms of how I play when I play badly - but the combined experiences of my friends lead me to think that's not the case. Remember there are always going to be people with top 1% runs and it's human nature to not want to acknowledge that it could be you. I've have other friends try to convince me the reason they had never had a big downswing was their outlandishly high winrate, but one by one they've met the variance gods.

Humility is a freeroll here anyway - may as well assume you're running good.

yeah I agree with all of this and is generally the point I was trying to make. anyone who hasn't experienced downswings outside of what is "normal" on a variance calculator is either better at playing well while running poorly, or just luckier. I definitely don't think I'm in the top 50% of players at handling run bad so it's likely I've experienced better than average luck. hopefully it continues but can never count on it

didn't play at all on tuesday to reset a little and felt a lot less emotionally invested when I fired up the tables yesterday. ending up catching some heat. won 14bi over 4k hands, including the hudless network. even managed to win a few showdowns

didn't play yesterday. started hot today but after the first hour I felt like I was getting destroyed in every spot - set over set, wrong end of QQ vs KK a couple times, flopped trips vs flopped full house in 3bet pot, just the usual stuff. was surprised to see I won a little bit at the end of it all.



this one helped

iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 98.15 BB
Hero (BB): 179.23 BB
UTG: 104.85 BB
MP: 93 BB
CO: 150.93 BB
BTN: 142.33 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, MP calls 5 BB, BTN calls 5 BB

Flop: (18.5 BB, 3 players) 9 9 7
Hero bets 9.79 BB, MP raises to 21.58 BB, fold, Hero raises to 173.23 BB, MP calls 65.42 BB

Turn: (192.5 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (192.5 BB, 2 players) 4

MP shows 3 3 (Full House, Nines full of Threes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 12%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows J J (Full House, Nines full of Jacks)
(Pre 81%, Flop 88%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 276.73 BB



going to do a feb update tomorrow. from a low of ~6k in october I'm almost back to 20k net worth. never would've thought having 20k would feel so good. falling below 20k used to be my threshold to get my ass in gear and grind. hope to never get lazy/irresponsible enough to drop below it ever again

jfc this month has been a disaster. been without power 5 days because our dumbass landlord forgot to pay the electric bill and the company won't send someone to turn the power back on unless you bribe them to do their job. any chance I've gotten to play I'm getting in really good spots just to get slaughtered otr. waaa waaa I know who cares, just gotta vent

iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB
BTN: 52.81 BB
SB: 99 BB
BB: 44.78 BB
Hero (UTG): 173.65 BB
UTG+1: 26.3 BB
MP: 12.23 BB
MP+1: 104.43 BB
MP+2: 117.35 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 A

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 9 9 6
SB checks, Hero bets 7.13 BB, MP+1 calls 7.13 BB, SB calls 7.13 BB

Turn: (31.38 BB, 3 players) 7
SB checks, Hero bets 23.86 BB, MP+1 calls 23.86 BB, SB calls 23.86 BB

River: (102.96 BB, 3 players) 2
SB bets 65.02 BB, Hero calls 65.02 BB, fold

Hero mucks 9 A (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 69%, Flop 77%, Turn 9%)
SB shows 9 7 (Full House, Nines full of Sevens)
(Pre 31%, Flop 23%, Turn 91%)
SB wins 230.99 BB



iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 100 BB
MP+1: 56.5 BB
Hero (MP+2): 183.27 BB
CO: 98.25 BB
BTN: 98.5 BB
SB: 92.5 BB
BB: 98.72 BB
UTG: 188.99 BB
UTG+1: 355.66 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) 7 7 9
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 7.91 BB, fold, BB calls 7.91 BB, MP calls 7.91 BB

Turn: (36.22 BB, 3 players) 6
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 24.81 BB, BB calls 24.81 BB, fold

River: (85.83 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 41.92 BB, Hero raises to 83.83 BB, BB calls 21.09 BB

BB shows 7 7 (Four of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 18%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows 9 9 (Full House, Nines full of Sevens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 20.83 BB
BB wins 209.84 BB



iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 106.56 BB
UTG+1: 261.32 BB
MP: 203.3 BB
MP+1: 202.46 BB
MP+2: 35.97 BB
Hero (CO): 185.85 BB
BTN: 127.06 BB
SB: 182.5 BB
BB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 5.5 BB, BTN calls 5.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 4.5 BB, MP calls 4.5 BB

Flop: (23.5 BB, 4 players) 7 4 J
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 22.33 BB, UTG calls 22.33 BB, fold, Hero raises to 180.35 BB, BTN calls 99.24 BB, fold

Turn: (288.95 BB, 2 players) K

River: (288.95 BB, 2 players) K

Hero shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows K K (Four of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 58.79 BB
BTN wins 286.95 BB



iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 8.93 BB
CO: 133.51 BB
BTN: 95.5 BB
SB: 97.5 BB
BB: 75.45 BB
UTG: 100 BB
UTG+1: 189.11 BB
Hero (MP): 204.65 BB
MP+1: 168.92 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

UTG raises to 2.2 BB, UTG+1 raises to 6 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 14 BB, fold, UTG+1 calls 9 BB

Flop: (47.7 BB, 3 players) 3 K T
BB bets 60.45 BB, fold, Hero calls 60.45 BB

Turn: (168.59 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (168.59 BB, 2 players) Q

BB shows K J (Straight, King High)
(Pre 25%, Flop 13%, Turn 16%)
Hero mucks A K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 75%, Flop 87%, Turn 84%)
BB wins 166.59 BB

last hand today as I type this lol:

iPoker - $2 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 95 BB
CO: 66.43 BB
BTN: 257.01 BB
SB: 130.08 BB
BB: 117.52 BB
Hero (UTG): 105 BB
UTG+1: 100 BB
MP: 98.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q 5 8
BB checks, Hero bets 4.63 BB, BB calls 4.63 BB

Turn: (15.76 BB, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero bets 12.23 BB, BB raises to 40 BB, Hero raises to 97.37 BB, BB calls 57.37 BB

River: (210.5 BB, 2 players) A

BB shows 7 K (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 26%, Turn 30%)
Hero mucks Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 68%, Flop 74%, Turn 70%)
BB wins 208.5 BB





playing 15k hands the next 7 days, +30bi

haha nice runouts pal.

Keep your head up and gl

Those are utter puke my man

thanks guys. just took a little bitching and moaning to get the sun run back



2800 hands and +13 bi including hudless site

Nice. GL!

LFGGGGGG

yeeeee

so cash was trash today:



(300 hands, +2.5 bi on hudless so almost b/e in $ today)

buuuuuut managed to bink 2nd in the only mtt I played today, a $100/25k. nice little $4300 bink chip led literally from hand 1 until about 30 left when I took a couple beats and ended up sitting on 8bb with 20 remaining. won a flip and battled back to chip lead before ft and held it until final 4 run bad hit. almost busted 4th but managed to suckout KQ vs A9s with 12bb and went into final 2 down 2:1 in chips. managed to take chip lead back at one point but ended up fizzling out and busting 95 vs T9 on T95

super happy to take 2nd and tbh was just really relieved not to bust around 20th yet again after crushing the early game. hope you guys had a good sunday too

ez wins! nh

thanks man. always nice to bink

been a frustrating week with my main site crashing every night for the last 3 days. after the first crash I had $400 never get returned to my account - still waiting to hear back from support.

Luckily stars just offered me a 40% rb offer so decided I'll grind out the $800 bonus there while I wait. starting out 4 tabling 50z but may move up to 100 soon. first 10k hands have been ok but tbh I've punted a couple stacks while figuring the pool out:



zoom is so much more fun. smoking way less weed while playing and not browsing 2+2 etc, just focusing on putting in a solid 90 minutes at a time - then break for 15 and back to it.

nice work op,

can you explain stars offering 40p rakeback? how is that?

Sometimes some players get random exclusive offers. From August to December I got rake 4k/get $1600.

yeah what ao said. just random. My offer was rake 2k for $800 and got a month to complete

Do they email you this? Or do you get these offers in the challenges section in the client?

they emailed but it shows up in the challenges section so if you miss the email it will still be there when you check the challenges

bodog quietly returned my $435 today. no email, not even a transaction in my account history. just quietly put the money in like they never stole it. lmao, withdrawing all my funds. so shady

Dude they have errors where the tables never break and get stuck in limbo. It's not that shady similar things have happened to me before and the money gets put back without saying anything. Probably cause I'm too dumb to notice.

it's not just that they're a poker site can't track player's balances correctly, it's that they also have horrendous support staff who play dumb and refuse to help or ever acknowledged an issue even exists. the fact that it happens to you and many others just makes it shadier.

Cool ty, Never got an offer before but worth checking the challenges every now and then i guess.

I emailed ignition for a royal flush bonus the other week and they declined it saying that because it went to showdown I didn't qualify. So yeah, definitely the support has gotten way worse in the last two-three years and the recent issue with balances is definitely concerning, but as long as they honor those balances then ignition is still one of the best american facing sites to play on. Sites like betonline/ACR have some serious botting issues for micro to low stakes that is a lot more apparent than what is going on for ignition.

"Hi Mason,

Thanks for contacting Ignition Casino Customer Service.

Your 3900821750 ID isn’t eligible for the Royal Flush Bonus due to the following:

“Your hand must win the pot, but doesn't have to go to showdown.” Although you won the pot, your hand went to showdown.

We have a list of requirements for this bonus here.

We're available to help 24/7 if you need anything else.

Thanks,"

Then after telling them they were incorrect I got the bonus and an apology.

that's hilarious. I contacted bodog for a royal flush bonus and they told me they don't have a royal flush bonus anymore, but they would credit me with $100 to congratulate me for a "great poker hand!" lololol. sometimes you can catch them in a good mood but it doesn't make up for the incompetence

I've been enjoying stars so much. didn't realize how little I was enjoying my grind until I started to love it again. aaaand now I understand how people get addicted to the zoom grind and play there even tho it gives up ev... i dont want to go back to nitring :'(

omg looool

the cheek

LOL

Yeah idk, someone else said they had the same thing, so it always makes me wonder if they just decline it the first time always no matter what now.