how can u call him rapidfish when you've spent 155k hands at 16nl? either move up, or your graph is fake

That was a typo I was too focused on the other part of my post. I'd edited my post to reflect that and apologize to him. I give Rapiddesh a lot of credit for aggressively battling 200 regs and haven't said anything negative towards him.

Didn't want to reply but noticed I made that typo and wanted to correct it. GL on the grind

I just looked at population statistics for nl25, (1million hand sample), and there are numerous massive mistakes that are being made. It seems regs overfold in virtually every single spot. as example; bb fold to btn steal: 70%, bb fold to sb steal: 50%, fold to flop cbet IP: 50%. These frequencies are very very weak.

With these big leaks the average winrate was 2bb/100.


that said the rake is extremely high, so it is quite tough probably. Still, i'd be down for a 10bb/100 prop bet @nl25 if anyone wants to put reasonable money on it.

how are you looking at population statistics for zoom mate

I'll do 500k hands at 2nl FR at >=20bb/100 for even money.

Its really tough, not for the money only, sure, you can buy a lot with 8k here in brazil, but it feels like part of my dream was destroyed. Its really tough to overcome that feeling. I thought taking the rest of the month off would be enough, maybe I will need another week to build my confidence. I feel like I cant beat nl2

And rake on 50z is scary, its hard to beat people for that many bbs, I can see myself easily taking >6 months to go back to 200z, maybe even more or even hitting another sick downswing and having to move to 16z.

Also looked at my database, when I defended bb vs SB it was insane to see how low my winrate in that spot was on 50z compared to 100z and 200z, even with the competition getting tougher, rake was so high that my defends in the bb were winning way less.

Will have to change my strat a bit to adapt to that too.

But wont give up! Im sure that even after 5 years from now I will still be playing poker and posting in this thread. Im too deep into this to give up!

Vaaaamoooo

im willing to play 1million hands at playmoney to prove that poker is not dead. if anyone is willing to put up a reasonable amount of play money against me pm me

Blackrain79 won at 10bbs over 5m hands at nl2 and he is a specialist in there, no way you have that winrate there. I dont even think its possible to win that much at stars at nl2

but at 10 bb/100 I think its achievable given how bad people are there and that the rake is similar to 100z there in bb/100(I think)

He has sample of 2.2m at 29bb/100 on nl2, i think u might have read it wrong

yea in 2002

this thread is amazingly starting to get even dumber.

hot take: Linus and co would do better at the micros than blackrain79.

So players like OtB_RedBaron beat 500z for 7bb/100+ winrates over half a million sample but people in the thread still argue whether the micros are beatable at 10bb/100 over 200k hands. Also I doubt anyone is going to do it unless it's for a reasonable sum. Waste of time really, people will always find excuses and set fake boundaries to what's possible and what's not possible.

How much action do you need to make this happen?

(GL rapidesh)

Multiple people have beaten 500z for 7+bbs/100, on an over 400k+ hand sample , so I presume that those same people would be able to beat the micros for 10bbs+/100

On 500z is the rake 2-3bb/100? Thats a 10bb/100 before rake. In the micros people would need to beat it by 20bb/100(maybe even more) before rake. Its so many bbs to make, even if people overfold flop, then they wont fold as much OTT/OTR, so you will need eventually to make hands to own these guys for a big pot.

Unless there are whales throwing insane amounts of bbs as a bluff/calling down with 3rd pair, its tough to beat the game by that much. Also for people that said linus would win more at nl2 than blackrain, Im not sure. Linus studies are focused on fighting high level opponents and he will miss a lot of the population reads at first. On mma's stream I think show of force said otb's winrate at 50z would be lower than some 100z/200z regs that are better at exploiting there.

Btw, Im talking here about zoom, not reg tables, with table selection its possible ofc. Also I could be wrong, since Ive never beat any stake for >4bb/100 in my life, so I dont know how big an edge you can have vs a pool. I think I would have a hard time beating np2 for more than 5bb/100.

Time to rethink everything you think you know about how to win at poker if you can type something like this.

RAKE

As someone that always tried to force people into folding a lot, there's a lot of true into that. If you're playing against someone that is folding more than he should OTF, then his range OTT will be way stronger and we will have way less fold equity, so this will reduce the effectiveness of our bluffs a lot, we won't be capable of explo overbluffing someone like that ever.

They're giving up a huge amount of EV OTF so they can defend themselves more OTT/OTR, so it's a mistake for us to look to put a lot of money vs that strategy. We should be fine by them overfolding flop, profiting vs that EV and then chilling out more OTT/OTR, since most of our EV is being made OTF. If we try to force much aggression, on average we will get owned vs that tight range(if villains are playing accordingly in those streets).

I could be biased, because people usually look to make calls vs me, but it was one of the ways I found out to not get owned too much: take their profit on the street they're overfolding and don't get ambitious later, because if they're overfolding, it's for a reason. Some people fold 70% OTT, so it's suicide for us to even have a bluffing range OTR because of how strong they're in there.

It's easy to say that when you're probably not getting called this light:

PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 139.08 BB
Hero (SB): 114.25 BB
BB: 40.5 BB
UTG: 30.31 BB
MP: 118.67 BB
CO: 107.06 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 5 T 8
Hero checks, BTN bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, BTN calls 5 BB

Turn: (21 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 27.53 BB, BTN calls 27.53 BB

River: (76.06 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 76.72 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 76.72 BB



PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 105.8 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 219.02 BB
MP: 152.86 BB
CO: 189.17 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 8

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (4.9 BB, 2 players) T A 9
Hero checks, BTN bets 1.4 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, BTN calls 4.6 BB

Turn: (16.9 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 16.06 BB, BTN calls 16.06 BB

River: (49.02 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 41.91 BB, BTN calls 41.91 BB



PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 202.29 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 393.17 BB
UTG: 180.81 BB
MP: 108.69 BB
CO: 113.3 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A 2

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, BTN calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 2 5 2
Hero bets 6.6 BB, BTN calls 6.6 BB

Turn: (34.2 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 24.37 BB, BTN calls 24.37 BB

River: (82.94 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 59.03 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 59.03 BB


PokerStars - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 293.82 BB
SB: 104.91 BB
BB: 109.02 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 125.79 BB
Hero (CO): 100.75 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K 9

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.32 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 8.68 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 8 5 2
BB bets 6.77 BB, Hero calls 6.77 BB

Turn: (36.04 BB, 2 players) 7
BB checks, Hero bets 11.48 BB, BB calls 11.48 BB

River: (59 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets 71.5 BB and is all-in, BB calls 71.5 BB



PokerStars - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 700.19 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 109.6 BB
UTG: 144.25 BB
MP: 148.59 BB
CO: 164.7 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, BTN calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 8 3 7
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (21 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 13.17 BB, BTN calls 13.17 BB

River: (47.33 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 76.84 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 76.84 BB




PS: all hands were vs regulars

If youre curious, just make a sim in a 3bp BTN vs CO, make CO range check, BTN cbet range for small and force CO to fold 70% of range OTF on K27r, then if you allow donks OTT, CO will donk a lot for a small sizing, I would guess at least 30%. If you force CO to check, IP will check back a lot and will bet turn at a very low frequency, I guess less than 30%.

Ive ran used a sim, but thats what seems most logical to me, I could be wrong with that ofc, but your statement from a theory perspective sounds way more off than my analysis if people are playing their ranges as they should.

Well that's just plain wrong.

Prolly 40k?

Yea, I forgot to factor in rake.

Otb winning less at 50nl than 100z regs made me lol. 35 pages in and Im still not sure if youre trolling or not, impressive.

Ive never ran a sim*

also make co play his continuing range as a call otf(no x/r allowed), which happens a lot otf irl imo

Lol, have you got to the first big downswing I had when I was losing for 200k hands at 25z/50z? Haha, the HHs in this thread are fun, one 500z reg once said my 16z hands looked lile 500z hands given how much people were tilted vs me and were starting to turn hands into bluffs OTR lol