Everyone can ran bad or be the endboss wihout graphs. You write all these things and there are many red flags

1) you judge a graph by 2k hand sample, just lol you play poker 1 month or sthing?

2) fish calling pure fold, well dont bluff and open hands that will dominate his range

3) if you have 4 fish with 50 vpip in plo ofc the variance will be bigger especially if you are doing poor adjustments. Your ev bb long term can be higher but so is your standard deviation

I am interested to see a 50k hand sample in gg where you play as good as you claim

If i have to guess you are a marginal winner around 3-5bb /100 and you had some card distribution heater before. Also you have no clue what are you doing when there are shortstacks which make bleed a lot of ev.You dont want to believe it? Thats fine by me. Post a 50k sample of the last 1 month or from now on and prove me i am wrong

I don’t post hand samples just because people want me to prove my playing strength. But now that I’m playing tracked I’ll be uploading graphs to the blog. You’ll be able to keep track if you are that interested.

Also

1) if you were paying attention, the 2k hand graphs were for me to have tracked hands and review lines. I needed to see that I was wasn’t punting pre or anything like that.

2) yea of course. But when fish are folding sometimes calling sometimes, but when they call you with pure folds and they are right mostly they are either lucky, getting tells from your line, or maybe colluding.

3) huh? Higher winrate = more variance? sorry, I didn’t get that memo

Apparently you didnt get the memo how to read either Your ev bb long term can be higher but so is your standard deviation. That doesnt mean it is if you are doing poor adjustments as i already said

Since you didnt get the memo let me give it to you


6bb/100 with standard deviation 100
8bb/100 with standard deviation 160

you need double the roll even if you are winning 2bb/100 more

Now assuming in your whole sample you have a mix of tables with 2-3 fishes and suddenly you get 5. Your ''adjustments'' are poor which actually leads to the same winrate but the standard deviation is higher since you have more fishes and more hands will be all over the place

6bb/100 with standard deviation 160 you will need 2.5x the initial bankroll

Got the memo now?

That’s a batshit wild assumption to say that a game with 5 fish if you don’t adjust properly you will have the same winrate as a game with 2-3 fish…

I don’t really care about this fantasy land variance calculator pseudomathematic crap.

Just pay attention to graphs and winrate, since I’m playing on tracked now. Honestly 6bb on GG pre Rb would be awesome.

i posted 3 different senarios to understand how winrate is not the only part affecting variance. Sorry i cant take you seriously anymore calling


Shocking some people decided to stake you. Gl not following anymore

Classy, man

This is kind of what I was getting to before. What if they aren't getting tells, aren't colluding, they are just...bad? If they are always calling your bluffs, what if you stopped bluffing them and only value bet them?

Shocking that he doesn't understand variance. When he wins a few buy-ins he thinks that he is crushing the game at 20bb/100. When he loses all the fish at the table are probably colluding against him.

This is great.
Also you are pro when you live off poker if you lose you are an poker addict.
Addiction is a big thing you can make years of therapy without results.

The issue is not that I’m getting stationed off all the time on that site. The issue is that they are folding when I have value, and calling when I have bluffs.

Lol. I don’t understand. I suspect collusion happening at global 100s, every reg I’ve talked to playing this stake is on a massive downswing. Together easily over 100BI. Pretty wild coincidence that the literal same day I switch sites, I start printing again…

Also, just read your thread and you don’t seem to understand how collusion makes you run many BI below EV… funny…

Honestly to clear things up I want to just restate. Some people here say I don’t understand variance. I do.

When I raise concerns about collusion, it’s not just because I’m losing. My track record regarding collusion detection is 66%.

Ignition - collusion confirmed going on in the games I played, and have many HHs that are proof.

Party - received a cheating refund when I felt like I didn’t have a significant edge in the games

Apps - no evidence of collusion or refunds

Global - we shall see! But honestly if you’re a low-mid stakes player, I recommend you stay away from Global until regs are winning there again.

If anybody feels like the screenshots belthazor posted are relevant, they aren’t. They’re just randomly picked deviations and winrates to try and make some point including the absurd assumption that a 5 fish game could have the same ev as a 2 fish game.

At least one of us is still winning even if they are playing against colluding players

Yeah? What’s your sn? I’m “iamtheonewhoknox”… funny you don’t post $won graphs or screen names in your blog… very funny…

Sorry I don't play 100 and below so never seen that sn before

Was playing 200s, and even then I have no claims about the 200s games… doesn’t really apply to you.

How about you post your screen name though?

My sn is spork and I hope to see you at 10/20 soon

i think what people are poking fun at is rooted in what i bolded. basically, this isn't the evidence it sounds like you're claiming it to be:

= they're bad at the game they're playing or they wouldn't be 100 regs. they're going to have insanely large breakeven and losing stretches. especially given rake.

= recency and availability bias

separately, collusion is happening in online poker, i'm not saying that you're wrong or that it isn't happening on global. but you should have some solid evidence (HH's, screennames, patterns, datamined hands) before making such a claim. bad regs losing money isn't it.

Yeah, I agree with everything you say. The issue is on Global I can’t track anything, I can’t see cards if they call and lose etc… it’s literally just my intuition, which I’m trusting to just switch sites atm.

Who is this fake spork impersonating me?

I don’t care if people disagree or fight with me on things, but if you keep trolling I’ll probably just block you from the thread.

Damn that's harsh for taking away my joy of watching this comedy unfold

On the lower stakes up to say 200 level of PLO on Global.. if you try to play anything close to GTO will most likely losing. If you try and bluff rivers "Like you should" you will probably be stationed to death. Forget what you have learned, take a ton of notes, nit it up and develop the reputation of never bluffing. Only then can you sneak some through on the river.

Looking back.. most of my personal profits at those levels came from value owning folks with the nuts, or by bluff catching some bad bluffs. NOTHING FANCY. There seems to be a fear of being bluffed or bullied at low stakes in general. I would never try to bluff a bad player off of a bad flush or get them to fold trips, for instance. They are paranoid that is what you are trying to do.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...eater-1798394/

Seeing this discord ‘Spork’ sn tipped my memory off to something I saw a couple years back. Just searched to see if I was off or not, but anyhow. Plot thickens. lol